Providing a reliable prediction for the San Francisco mayoral election in 2024 is a tough task, with Mark Farrell and London Breed very close. The latest betting odds suggest the two Democratic Candidates will decide the race.
I provide more information on all reliable candidates in this article. If you read until the end, you will also find my San Francisco mayoral election predictions for 2024.
2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election Winner Odds
The following betting odds on the San Francisco 2024 mayoral election are courtesy of BetUS.
| Mayoral Candidate | Odds |
|---|---|
| Mark Farrell | -125 |
| London Breed | +110 |
| Daniel Lurie | +500 |
| Aaron Peskin | +5000 |
The odds on the San Francisco mayoral election candidates show a tight race between two candidates: the incumbent, London Breed, and former Mayor, Mark Farrell. Daniel Lurie is in third, but San Francisco’s ranked choice voting system makes Lurie more competitive than his odds suggest.
Aaron Peskin’s long odds reflect how far he’s fallen in the polls leading up to the election. Another prominent candidate, Ahsha Safai, has odds so long that they’re unlisted. He has also formed a ranked-choice alliance with Farrell, complicating the mayoral race.
It’s going to be a close fight, so let’s discuss the main candidates.
San Francisco Mayoral Election 2024 Candidates
The San Francisco Mayoral Election betting odds reflect the factions within the Democratic Party that are popular among San Francisco residents. Here’s where each candidate stands on the key issues that matter most to San Franciscans.
London Breed (+110)
Breed is San Francisco’s incumbent mayor. She was elected in 2018, so she had to confront the COVID pandemic, unrest following George Floyd’s murder, and the continued challenges of homelessness and drug use in San Francisco.
This candidate is focused on reducing crime rates by increasing police funding and adopting additional surveillance measures. She’s used sweeps of homeless camps to clear city streets, but she has been criticized for the slow building of new houses.
Her positions overlap with her challengers, particularly Farrell and Lurie. Unlike her opponents, Breed must confront the challenge of reelection as an incumbent facing voters’ dissatisfaction with their city.
Mark Farrell (-125)
Farrell was briefly San Francisco’s mayor. He rose to the position in 2018 after the Board of Supervisors voted to replace Breed. She originally filled the position after her predecessor’s death before her term’s end. After a special election, Breed became Mayor in July 2018.
Although Farrell is a Democrat, he’s recognized as the most conservative candidate among the San Francisco mayoral election candidates. He has a zero-tolerance policy for crime and has pledged to replace the police chief within his first 100 days in office.
Since San Francisco is continuing to struggle with homelessness and crime, Farrell has emerged as a tough-on-crime counterpoint that appeals to many San Franciscans.
David Lurie (+500)
Lurie is the only mayoral candidate running from outside of city government. He founded a non-profit in 2005 called Tipping Point Community (TPC). TPC was an anti-poverty juggernaut that focused on reducing homelessness and retraining poor Americans with job skills that could lift them out of poverty.
Lurie is also the race’s largest donors. He’s donated over $8 million to his own campaign. The next largest donor is Michael Bloomberg, who donated $1.2 million to Breed’s campaign.
Finally, Lurie’s background with a non-profit that addresses poverty appeals to an electorate dissatisfied with crime and homelessness. Lurie has additional appeal as an outsider, giving him a populist angle without losing the value of institutions to deliver solutions.
With his focus on anti-poverty measures and downtown revitalization, Lurie is a competitive outsider, who shouldn’t be counted out.
Aaron Peskin (+5000)
Peskin is the race’s progressive candidate and the President of San Francisco’s Board of Supervisors. His solutions to San Francisco’s crime level focus on police oversight and non-police responses to crime.
These don’t exclude police funding. Peskin created a law enforcement task force to address fentanyl crisis, but they don’t match the voters’ mood. Frustration with San Francisco’s economic downturn and homelessness problem does not make Peskin’s progressive solutions as attractive as more centrist positions held by the three leading candidates.
Key Issues in the San Francisco Mayoral Election
San Francisco’s mayoral race is focused on homelessness, crime, and downtown revitalization.
Homelessness is an ongoing challenge for an already expensive city. The cost of housing in San Francisco is 182% higher than the national average. Consequently, San Francisco has experienced high rates of homelessness, even as Breed has cleared streets of homeless encampments and individuals.
A separate but related issue is crime, which is also related to the city’s fentanyl crisis. A report found that 653 overdose deaths came from fentanyl in 2023. Each candidate has positions that address drug use, whether it’s packaged as part of a larger response to crime or a separate plan for curbing drug use.
Finally, San Francisco’s downtown revitalization is part of a larger economic story. Reuters reported that among major U.S. cities, San Francisco’s office vacancy rate is the highest at 32%. Those empty offices are not thriving businesses or paying rent that the city can collect taxes on. Each candidate also offers a plan to address that challenge, and reviving commercial areas is deeply connected to addressing homelessness and crime.
San Francisco Mayoral Election 2024 System and Polls
San Francisco uses a ranked choice voting system. Voters rank their choices from their first preference to their second, third, and other choices. In each round of voting, the least popular candidate is removed, and those candidates go each voter’s second choice. This repeats until a candidate wins.
Polls show an increasingly close race between Breed and Farrell. A Kron4/Emerson College Poll showed a dead heat between the two candidates where Farrell had the edge. In September, GrowSF simulated a ranked choice election and found that Breed won by 2% over Lurie.
The race is a functional tie between Breed and either Farrell or Lurie. It’s a tight race with a tantalizing betting opportunity.
San Francisco Mayoral Election 2024 Prediction and Best Bet
Each of the San Francisco mayoral candidates must confront homelessness, public safety, and the economic downturn the city’s downtown area has experienced. Breed has policies in place that have made progress on some of these issues, but high dissatisfaction among residents has resulted in a formidable challenge to her seat.
Mayor Breed may survive her re-election campaign. Even in its endorsement of Lurie, the San Francisco Chronicle admitted that Breed “will be fine if she is re-elected.”
But the best bet is on Lurie. His odds do not reflect how close he is in the polls. A bet on him has a chance to return $5 for each $1 placed, and he’s among the most competitive candidates in the limited polling available among San Francisco’s mayoral polls.
Where to Bet the 2024 San Francisco Mayoral Election?
Even though Mayor Breed is the safe choice, Lurie’s odds are too good to pass up. If you’re interested in placing these bets or viewing other political lines, BetUS is a great place to bet on the election, whether it’s at the national level or the mayoral one.
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