2024 South Carolina Presidential Primary Predictions and Odds

As the U.S. Presidential Election primary heads into a crucial phase, former President Donald Trump is seeking to deliver a death blow to Nikki Haley’s chances. After picking up wins in Iowa, and New Hampshire, Trump is closing in on a victory for the South Carolina presidential primary.

In addition to the Republicans, the South Carolina presidential primary on the Democratic side was over before it even started. Joe Biden won this state in a landslide over the little competition that he faced.

Let’s examine the latest 2024 South Carolina primary odds and make our predictions on the state’s Republican presidential primary.

When Is The South Carolina Primary?

The 2024 Democratic South Carolina presidential primary was held on February 3, 2024. All attention is now being shifted to the 2024 Republican South Carolina presidential primary which takes place on February 24, 2024.

South Carolina Presidential Primary Odds

The following odds are courtesy of the best political betting sites:

As the South Carolina primary race heads into the final stretch, Donald Trump seeks to deal a critical blow to rival Nikki Haley’s presidential campaign. We are examining the updated South Carolina Republican primary odds at political sportsbooks and making our latest predictions.

Following convincing wins in the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary, Trump can take a commanding lead for the Republican nominee. If Haley loses, and it’s appearing that way, there aren’t many roads that lead to a win for the former governor of South Carolina.

Meanwhile, the Democratic primary resulted in a landslide victory for Joe Biden earlier this month in South Carolina.

When Is The South Carolina Primary?

The Democratic South Carolina presidential primary was held on February 3, 2024. All attention is now being shifted to the Republican South Carolina presidential primary which takes place on February 24, 2024.

South Carolina Presidential Primary Odds

The following South Carolina presidential primary betting odds are courtesy of BetUS:

On February 7, Trump was heavily favored to win the South Carolina Republican primary. At the time, Trump was a -10000 favorite to capture South Carolina.

Currently, Trump’s South Carolina Republican primary odds are off the board and new wagers are not being accepted at online sportsbooks.

You can, however, still bet on Trump’s margin of victory in the South Carolina primary. At +350 odds, Trump has an implied probability of 22.2 percent to beat Haley by 30 to 39.9 percent.

Where To Bet On The South Carolina Presidential Primary

With increased interest in political betting during election season, online betting sites have released a number of unique South Carolina presidential primary odds. As long as the race is still on, you will be able to wager on the remainder of presidential primaries through 2024.

In addition to the South Carolina primary, BetUS offers odds for the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election winner. At BetUS, it’s easy to deposit money and get started betting on all the political odds. This site has a wide range of convenient and safe deposit methods for customers.

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South Carolina Republican Primary

The following South Carolina Primary 2024 Odds are courtesy of BetUS:

The odds of winning the South Carolina Republican primary are currently unavailable. As Trump appears to have this race wrapped up, betting sites are not offering odds to win the race.

In BetUS’ most recent odds update, Trump was heavily favored to beat Haley at -10000. At the time, he had an implied probability of 99 percent to defeat Haley. Now, Trump is looking at a 99+ percent chance of winning.

According to our South Carolina Republican primary prediction, Trump should be a 99.9 percent favorite to win. Earlier this month, Haley lost the Nevada presidential primary to “none of these candidates”. In a humiliating loss, GOP voters preferred “none of these candidates” with Trump absent from the ballot.

It is the first time that “none of these” candidates won since being introduced as an option in 1975. Despite Haley being South Carolina’s governor from 2011 to 2017, her popularity in the state has regressed significantly.

Who Will Win The Republican Primary?

Is there a glimmer of hope for Haley in the South Carolina primary? You never want to use the words “guarantee” and “lock,” but Trump appears to be a lock to win in South Carolina.

Haley will need an incredible push from her supporters for the upset. She has previously won an election for governor in South Carolina. So, there must be voters out there willing to support Haley, right?

There will be some, but not nearly enough to unseat Trump. According to a recent South Carolina primary poll, Trump has a more than a 2-to-1 lead on Haley.

The poll performed by Fabrizio, Lee and Associates from Jan. 28 to Jan. 29, revealed that Trump is leading by a staggering 35 points over Haley. Trump is leading Haley — 66 percent to 31 — according to the poll¹.

If Haley is going to win the general election, she must miraculously win South Carolina. However, in all likelihood, Haley will halt her presidential campaign after a devastating loss to Trump in her home state.

We have tried to find a path to victory for Haley, but she is on borrowed time. Regardless of how confidently she speaks in front of her supporters at rallies, Haley should know that this race is already over.

With Trump’s South Carolina primary odds removed from the board, oddsmakers are aware that he is well on his way to winning the 2024 South Carolina primary.

Donald Trump Wins South Carolina Primary (OFF)

South Carolina Primary Trump Victory Margin

The Trump margin of victory odds have shifted slightly since early February. The 30-34.99 percent and 35-39.99 percent margin of victory odds have shortened from +400 to +350.

Currently, you can’t bet on who will win the South Carolina Republican primary. However, on this South Carolina primary bet, you can bet Trump to lose outright at +3000 odds.

Trump will likely roll over Haley for a fairly convincing win in South Carolina. Despite New Hampshire being comprised of a majority of independents, Trump was able to win by roughly 11 percent.

In South Carolina, Trump will likely run away for a much easier victory. However, there should still be some independents in South Carolina that try to put a dent in Trump’s win. Also, Haley might have some leftover supporters from her time as governor of South Carolina. Haley is a native of The Palmetto State which should marginally help provide her with some votes, but not nearly enough. This will not help Haley win, but Trump may find it difficult to pick up a landslide victory.

We are projecting a 36 to 38-point margin of victory for Trump in South Carolina. Trump wants a landslide, but he’ll have to settle for a respectful 35 to 39.99 percent win over Haley.

35-39.99% Trump Victory Margin

South Carolina Republican Primary Prop Bets

Earlier this month, online betting sites posted odds on whether Haley would drop out of the race before the South Carolina Republican primary. Currently, South Carolina primary prop bets are unavailable, but let’s revisit our prediction:

Will Haley End Her Presidential Bid Before The South Carolina Primary?

On Tuesday, February 20, 2024, Haley announced that she will not withdraw from the U.S. Presidential Election race. There was widespread speculation that Haley was going to bow out, but she remains steadfast in her commitment to winning the GOP nomination.

Due to Haley’s announcement, this prop bet was removed from the board. We managed to place a bet on ‘No’ at -450 odds, but we’ll see if Haley changes her stance before February 28, 2024.

Prior to the New Hampshire primary, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis dropped out of the presidential election shortly before voting started. After withdrawing, DeSantis immediately endorsed Trump for the GOP nomination.

When it comes to Haley, it’s unlikely she will call it quits in the state where she was governor. Haley will go down fighting in The Palmetto State. After she loses, the chances of her ending her presidential bid will skyrocket. Nevertheless, Haley won’t give up before losing the South Carolina primary.

Haley Won’t End Presidential Bid (OFF)

South Carolina Democratic Primary

Odds for the South Carolina Democratic primary were never available at online sportsbooks. This was a result of the large lead that President Joe Biden had over his opponents, who didn’t pose a threat to his Democratic nomination.

If Michelle Obama or California Gov. Gavin Newsom entered the race, Biden would suddenly have some competition. But, as it stands currently, Biden is in a one-person race.

Biden ended up blowing right past his rivals to pick up all 55 state delegates. On February 3, 2024, the current President of the United States won the South Carolina primary with 96 percent of the votes.

Marianne Williamson and Dean Phillips each received just two percent of the votes in South Carolina. Williamson and Phillips are essentially there as placeholders with no real chance of beating Biden.

Currently, Biden has won a total of 91 delegates. Williamson dropped out of the race on February 7, 2024, but Phillips hasn’t thrown in the towel just yet.

Despite oddsmakers not posting odds, we handicapped Biden’s win at -100000. In short, Biden was a lock to win South Carolina without any pushback from Williamson or Phillips. There weren’t any surprises in the South Carolina Democratic primary in 2024.

South Carolina Presidential Primary Predictions and Odds

In review, Trump should make easy work of Haley in the South Carolina presidential primary. Currently, Trump has -1200 odds to win the Republican nomination. After taking South Carolina, his odds should continue to improve.

At +1200, Haley remains his only competitor, but she has an implied probability of 7.7 percent. We believe that her chances of defeating Trump are lower than that.

You can’t bet on Trump to win the South Carolina Republican presidential primary right now for good reason: Trump wins comfortably. Even if you can bet before February 28, 2024, Trump’s odds will hold no value.

Alternatively, we recommend betting on Trump to win the primary by 35-39.99 percent at BetUS.

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