Strade Bianche 2025 Odds and Predictions: Pogacar Unstoppable?

Tadej Pogačar (-360)

Tadej Pogačar is the -360 favorite to win the 2025 Strade Bianche. His current odds have an implied win probability of 40.82%, and he is significantly ahead of the rest of the field for this event.

Pogačar is coming off a dominant 2024, winning 24 WorldTour level races and 25 races total. He also finished at the top of the Individual UCI World Rankings for the fourth year in a row.

🇸🇮 Tadej Pogacar's schedule for 2025

✅ UAE Tour
✅ Strade Bianche
✅ Milano-Sanremo
✅ E3
✅ Gent-Wevelgem
✅ Tour of Flanders
✅ Amstel Gold Race
✅ Flèche Wallonne
✅ Liège
✅ Tour de France
✅ World Championships

Giro/Vuelta and other races to be confirmed. pic.twitter.com/gAYvOXAYDX

— Domestique (@Domestique___) December 10, 2024

Among his dozens of wins were top finishes in the Tour de France, Giro d’Italia, and the Strade Bianche. He also won the Road UCI World Championships, making Pogačar the first Triple Crown in Cycling since Marco Pantani in 1998, the year Pogačar was born.

After arguably the best single season ever, Pogačar has continued to find success in 2025. He won the UAE Tour in February, his first appearance on UCI World Tour this season.

History is against Pogačar winning the race again this year. Only one cyclist, Fabian Cancellara (2008, 2012, 2016), has won the Strade Bianche three times. Also, since the event started in 2007, no one has repeated as the winner in back-to-back years.

If you add the low odds, betting on Pogačar is not the best option.

Tom Pidcock (+700)

The cyclist with the best odds to upset Pogačar this weekend is Tom Pidcock. Top cycling betting sites list the British cyclist at +700 odds to win the 2025 Strade Bianche. This price equals an implied win probability of 12.5%, making him a distant second to Pogačar, who has a 40.82% win probability.

Pidcock won this event in 2023, but Pogačar did not compete in Tuscany that season. Last year, Pidcock finished fourth at +3’50” behind Pogačar. Toms Skujiņš and Maxim Van Gils also finished ahead of Pidcock in 2024.

Last year, the Brit’s only road race win came in the Amstel Gold Race, and he finished second in the Giro dell ’Emilia. Pidcock has already had a better start in 2025, winning the points classification and stages 2 and 4 of the AlUla Tour.  He also finished third in the Vuelta a Andalucia.

As a former winner, Pidcock knows what it takes to win this event. He is also among the few previous winners to compete again this year. However, stopping Pogačar will be easier said than done and the odds for Pidcock are not quite high enough.

Toms Skujiņš (+1800)

Rounding out the top three in the 2025 Strade Bianche betting odds is Toms Skujiņš, who is listed at +1800 to win his first Strade Bianche this weekend.

The 33-year-old Latvian cyclist has seven major wins in one-day races and classics in his career, including two National Road Race Championships (2019, 2021) and four National Rime Trial Championships (2018, 2021-2023).

Italy’s 🇮🇹 white roads are calling 📞

Reliving last year’s @StradeBianche and gearing up for this year’s edition 💪

Who’s ready for another epic battle? 🔥 pic.twitter.com/GQ8x405nt2

— UCI (@UCI_cycling) March 4, 2025

Skujiņš is coming off his best finish in the Strade Bianche. He finished second in this event in 2024, passing his previous best, a ninth-place finish in 2019. It was also his best finish in a classic race in his career.

After his runner-up finish in the Strade Bianche, Skujiņš went on to finish fifth in the 2024 Olympics and fourth in the World Championships in the road race. He has four top 20 finishes in the Strade Bianche in his career.

Skujiņš is running out of time to get over the hump in the Strade Bianche. At 33 years old, he is closer to the end of his top-level career than the beginning. That could add extra motivation for Skujiņš this time around, so I expect a strong performance from the veteran.

Best Sleeper for Strade Bianche 2025

Pogačar has a massive lead over the other cyclists in the latest Strade Bianche betting odds. This is good news for underdog bettors because everyone outside of the top three has thrilling dark horse odds. My top sleeper for this weekend is Pello Bilbao (+3300), a Spaniard who has finished in the top 10 in three of the last four years.

In 2024, Bilbao finished ninth in the Amstel Gold Race and the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec. He was also the runner-up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal. Bilbao also finished in the top ten at the 2024 Liège–Bastogne–Liège in Belgium.

Most of Bilbao’s success came in Canada, but he did have two top-ten finishes in Europe. If Bilbao can build on his momentum in 2025, he could have a career-best finish in this year’s Strade Bianche.