The most crucial date on the United States primary elections calendar is here, so it’s time for my 2024 Super Tuesday predictions and analysis of the odds at sites where you are betting on politics.
With primary elections in 15 states and American Samoa, there are 865 delegates up for grabs in the Republican and Democratic primaries. Put differently, over 33% of delegates will be awarded on Super Tuesday1!
It’s a busy day, with a strong opportunity for President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump to come close to clinching the 2024 presidential nominations. Let me take you through the updated Super Tuesday odds, my analysis, and the best picks for a complete betting preview.
2024 Super Tuesday Betting Odds
The following Super Tuesday odds are courtesy of BetOnline:
| PRIMARIES PROP BET | ODDS |
|---|---|
| State With Highest Trump Vote Share | Oklahoma (-110) Alabama (+240) Arkansas (+350) Alaska (+1200) Tennessee (+2500) |
| Virginia Trump Vote Share | 5.00-9.99% (+350) 10.00-14.99% (+400) Lose (+425) 15-19.99% (+600) 20.00-24.99% (+600) 30% or Higher (+650) 0-4.99% (+700) 25-29.99% (+900) |
| California Senate Primary: Top 2 Finish | Steve Garvey (-600) Katie Porter (+350) Barbara Lee (+2200) James Bradley (+25000) Eric Early (+25000) |
Currently, BetOnline has three Super Tuesday prop bets available for wagering. The odds predominantly focus on the Republican primaries, as there is no drama remaining in the Democratic primary with Biden so far ahead.
The centerpiece of political betting on Super Tuesday is which state Trump will have the highest voter share. At -110, Trump’s highest voter share on Super Tuesday is expected to come from Oklahoma. The odds for the state come with an implied probability of having the highest Trump voter share of 52.4%.
Trump’s opponent, Nikki Haley, is down, but she isn’t out quite yet. If there is one state on Super Tuesday that she has a chance in it is Virginia. Nevertheless, Trump is favored to win Virginia by 5% to 9.99% (+350).
As an aside, the California Senate primary is heating up heading into November’s runoff. Former Los Angeles Dodger, Steve Garvey, is expected to easily finish in the top two on Super Tuesday. Garvey’s California Senate odds have skyrocketed from -130 to -600 in just one day.
For the best Super Tuesday betting odds, I suggest checking out the latest political lines at BetOnline. In addition to the most betting options, BetOnline is offering a 50% match bonus of up to $1,000 for new customers.
Key States To Watch
California and Texas offer the most delegates for the Republican primaries on Super Tuesday. There are a whopping 169 delegates available to be won in California, while Texas has 161 delegates weighing in the balance.
If Trump can dominate these two key states, Haley will be in a tough position, even without considering some of the other jurisdictions. In January, an impressive 71% of Republicans responded to a poll in favor of Trump.
Only 16% of California GOP voters indicated that they would back Haley in the Republican primary2. With 169 delegates available in California, this isn’t good news for Haley. Additionally, Republicans in Texas will overwhelmingly support Trump.
Is an upset possible for Haley in any state on Super Tuesday?
On Sunday, Haley won D.C. to avoid getting swept. However, she faces long Super Tuesday odds across the board. The South Carolina primary and Michigan primary were her chance to make this a competitive race, and she floundered the opportunity.
Virginia, Massachusetts, Utah, and Vermont are worth watching, though Trump should prevail. In any event, Trump should easily win the states offering a minimum of 50 delegates: California, Texas, North Carolina, Tennessee, and Alabama.
In the Democratic primaries, Biden will sweep Super Tuesday, but the voter shares will indicate whether he could have issues in November.
Analyzing the Super Tuesday Odds: Candidate Breakdown
Due to the inevitable wins on Super Tuesday for Trump and Biden, online betting sites do not have odds on who will win the most states or delegates. Dean Phillips and Haley will likely suspend their presidential bids shortly after the big day.
As far as the Virginia primary odds are concerned, oddsmakers are giving Haley a slight chance in the Old Dominion state. At +425 odds, Trump’s implied probability of losing Virginia is 19%. In short, Haley has a puncher’s chance of winning the state.
She has been holding on to her faint chances by holding campaign rallies throughout the country. On Thursday, Haley held a rally in central Virginia, where she criticized Trump for his views on the southern border and the war in Ukraine3.
Although Haley continues to hammer Trump on the same points, the former South Carolina governor’s Super Tuesday betting odds are not responding positively.
Implications of Super Tuesday Results
The implications of Super Tuesday on the U.S. Presidential Elections are substantial. As we mentioned, D.C. is the only state that Haley has won through the state primaries. She gained just 19 delegates, which isn’t enough to put a dent into Trump’s massive 43-point lead.
Therefore, Haley will likely finally drop out of the race if she doesn’t shock the country with multiple upsets. The 52-year-old former U.N. Ambassador has stated that she will stay in the race as long as she is ‘competitive’4.
Following Super Tuesday, Haley’s deficit is likely going to be too much to be considered competitive. If she takes her own advice, expect Haley to withdraw from the GOP race later this week. Regardless, Trump can clinch the GOP nomination as early as March 12.
Likewise, Phillips will be too far behind Biden to realistically catch up after Super Tuesday. He will likely join Haley in announcing his campaign suspension, following a disastrous performance against Biden in the Democratic primaries on Tuesday.
Expert Super Tuesday Predictions and Political Analysis
Experts are forecasting a Super Tuesday sweep for Trump and Biden. The small momentum that Haley picked up in D.C. will deteriorate quickly.
According to 538 recent polling averages as of Monday afternoon, Trump leads in every state by a considerable margin. His projected 65.2% voter share in Virginia is his smallest lead, per the results of the polls.
Despite no recent polling data for Utah, Vermont, Arkansas, Colorado, and Alaska, Trump is projected to sweep Super Tuesday5. Political pundits do not see Haley having any routes remaining to beat Trump.
While the question for Trump is whether he can win every Super Tuesday state, for Biden, Democrats will be carefully watching the “uncommitted” vote.
Biden will sweep, but a protest aimed at Biden’s handling of the Israel-Hamas war could result in a new flood of “uncommitted” Democrats.
Super Tuesday Primary Predictions and Picks
Let’s circle back to the 2024 Super Tuesday and reveal our Super Tuesday predictions for every bet available at BetOnline:
1. State With Highest Trump Vote Share
Trump is beloved in all five of these states, but which state loves him the most? If he matches the performance in previous Republican primaries and the 2020 Presidential Election, Oklahoma will give Trump the highest vote share.
In 2020, Trump dominated Biden with 65.4% of the vote in Oklahoma. This was more than 3% of the vote share in Alabama and Arkansas.
The demographics of the states have changed slightly since then, but Oklahoma should still give Trump the most lopsided victory.
2. Virginia Trump Vote Share
Haley is expected to give Trump a run for his money in Virginia. By the end of the night, however, the former president will likely be celebrating a victory there, among other states.
Currently, Trump is favored to win Virginia by 5% to 5.99%. However, the latest Virginia primary poll averages, noted above, reveal that Trump is up by double digits in the state.
At +400 odds, there is great value on Trump to win by 10% to 14.99% of the vote. I predict an 11-12% win over Haley to just push Trump into the double digits in Virginia.
3. California Senate Primary: Top 2 Finish
As a bonus Super Tuesday pick, I like Steve Garvey to advance to the November runoff with a top two finish in the California Senate primary.
The former MLB player’s rise through the political landscape in California should continue on Super Tuesday. Garvey has gained momentum over the last month, and he is expected to score a big win for the California Senate.
Sources
How many delegates are at stake on Super Tuesday? | The Washington Post. Retrieved From “https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/03/04/super-tuesday-delegate-count/”
How will Trump fare in California’s primary? Here’s what polls show | San Francisco Chronicle. Retrieved From “https://www.sfchronicle.com/california/article/trump-primary-republican-polls-18630393.php”
Nikki Haley holds rally in central Virginia, criticizes Trump on the border, Ukraine | WRIC.com. Retrieved From “https://www.wric.com/news/local-news/henrico-county/nikki-haley-holds-rally-in-central-virginia-criticizes-trump-on-the-border-ukraine/”
Nikki Haley vows to stay in the race as long as she remains ‘competitive’ | NBC News. Retrieved From “https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/video/nikki-haley-vows-to-stay-in-the-race-as-long-as-she-remains-competitive-full-interview-205356613703”
Can Haley stop a Trump sweep on Super Tuesday? | ABC News. Retrieved From “https://abcnews.go.com/538/haley-stop-trump-sweep-super-tuesday/story?id=107731176”
