Tour de France 2024 Odds: Does Vingegaard Three-Peat?

The Tour de France 2024 will begin on Saturday, June 29, 2024, and conclude on Sunday, July 21, 2024. There are two rest days included on the schedule, which equals 21 days of racing across 21 stages.

The route takes riders through eight flat, four hilly, and seven mountain stages. Four summit finishes are planned at Saint-Lary-Soulan Pla d’Adet, Plateau de Beille, Isola 2000, and Col de la Couillole.

🤩 Here it is, the official route of the #TDF2024!

🤩 Voici le parcours officiel du #TDF2024 ! pic.twitter.com/3ORf31AS4T

— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) October 25, 2023

The Tour de France 2024 course takes riders on an incredible 52,230 vertical meter gain during the 21-day event! Due to the Paris Olympic Games, the race will not finish on Champs-Élysées in the streets of Paris.

Instead, the race will begin in Florence, Italy, and conclude in Nice, France.

The 22 teams and 176 riders will compete for a huge €2.3 million purse! The winner of the overall individual classification will take home €500,000.

If Vingegaard is healthy enough to take his ride at the Tour de France 2024, he is expected to win without much resistance. Vingegaard has noted that he will only participate at 100% fitness levels.

The 2022 and 2023 Tour de France winner was spotted training recently 38 days ahead of the race. Vingegaard suffered multiple injuries, including fractured ribs, collarbone fractures, and a punctured lung in a crash at the Itzulia Basque Country race last month.

It’s incredible that the Dane is preparing to run in the Tour after such devastating injuries. Will he be at 100% fitness levels in time for the race? It’s likely going to come down to the wire, but he appears to be heading in the right direction in his recovery.

Postcard from Tignes. 🏞

📸 @MatteoJorg pic.twitter.com/5Vdf5zagWc

— Team Visma | Lease a Bike (@vismaleaseabike) June 16, 2024

The latest news on Vingegaard is that he is on track to ride in the Tour de France. This past weekend, Team Visma posted a picture on X of pre-Tour training in the French Alp. The image included Vingegaard and also Wout van Aert, who have both been questionable to ride in the Tour de France.

That’s bad news for the rest of the Tour de France teams, but great for cycling fans. Vingegaard has participated in three races this year at the O Gran Camino in Spain, Tirreno-Adriatico, and Itzulia Basque Country.

In Spain, he dominated the field, with three of four stage wins and the general classification, mountains classification, and points classification winner!

The size of that crowd in Denmark celebrating Jonas Vingegaard's Tour de France win! 🤯#TDF2023 (Via: @JumboVismaRoad) pic.twitter.com/GsY5wk0EJ6

— NBC Sports Cycling (@NBCSCycling) July 26, 2023

The 27-year-old star followed up with a general classification and mountains classification win at Tirreno-Adriatico in Italy. He ran into the unfortunate incident at Itzulia Basque but is the clear rider to repeat and beat in the Tour de France 2024.

If Vingegaard is unable to ride, his Slovenian rival will be the largest beneficiary. Vingegaard ranks as the better long Grand Tour rider, but the edge for overall cycling talent leans to Pogačar.

Nevertheless, in the Tour de France’s format, Pogačar can’t keep pace with Vingegaard for three weeks. When the last one arrives, Vingegaard keeps going and doesn’t show signs of weakening!

Being the next best rider is an accomplishment in its own right, though. Pogačar can’t compete with Vingegaard, but he’s a step ahead of the rest of the field. Therefore, his TDF odds are -250 to win without Vingegaard at BetUS.

Pogačar is coming off a dominant performance in the Giro d’Italia. He won by roughly 10 minutes over Daniel Martinez. Additionally, he won six states in the 21-day race!

It was the largest margin of victory in the Giro d’Italia in six decades! Pogačar toyed with the competition in Vingegaard’s absence.

Six stage wins and 20 days wearing the Maglia Rosa. Nothing short of extraordinary, Tadej Pogačar 💗
.
Sei vittorie di tappa e 20 giorni in Maglia Rosa. Tadej Pogačar, semplicemente straordinario 💗#GirodItalia pic.twitter.com/jGxMtVdtK1

— Giro d'Italia (@giroditalia) June 5, 2024

Only seven riders have won the Giro d’Italia and Tour in the same year. The last to do so was Italian Marco Pantani in 1998! Fatigue is often too much for most riders who choose to ride in the Giro, but Pogačar is a special talent.

He will need Vingegaard to miss the Tour or crash again to win. Nevertheless, he is easily the best of the rest in the 2024 field.

Does Primož Roglič have enough fight in him to win his first Tour de France? He’s won every other Grand Tour possible in his career, but the Tour has eluded the Bora-Hansgrohe rider.

The Tour de France 2024 betting odds didn’t move in a favorable direction for Roglič over the last month. In May, his odds to win the Tour de France were +400, while you can get +700 for him as the race approaches.

At 34 years old, has the door closed on his chances? If it happens, Roglič will likely need Vingegaard and Pogačar to take a spill.

Assume that Vingegaard isn’t cleared to race and Pogačar crashes; Roglič could be there to pick up the pieces. However, his form hasn’t been the most promising this year.

In 2024, Roglič finished 10th in the general classification at the eight-stage Paris-Nice race in March. He was part of the crash involving Vingegaard, but escaped serious injury. After winning Stage 1, Roglič dropped to 29th in Stage 2 and 18th in Stage 3.

The three-time Tour de France stage winner and 2023 Giro d’Italia champion has been laser-focused on being in his best form for June. However, Roglič fans better hope his recent lackluster results are simply due to preserving his energy for the Tour. He was in significantly stronger form a year ago.

This is what winning the Giro feels like 👇

Primož Roglič took the stage win and overall lead on Stage 20 at the 2023 Giro d’Italia with a historic time-trial 🙌🏼@rogla @vismaleaseabike pic.twitter.com/iIEOUTqxdC

— Velon CC (@VelonCC) April 29, 2024

He doesn’t look ready to compete for a winning ride over Vingegaard and Pogačar. Roglič’s odds for Tour de France 2024 indicate a 20% chance to win or runner-up behind Vingegaard. I would like +800 odds or higher on Roglič before considering him!