As a new season dawns on the UCI World Tour, the 2025 Tour Down Under odds for the first race are on the board! The official start list has been announced, and there are some juicy prices to handicap.
In this article, I break down the latest odds and the favorites, reveal the best longshot bets, and make my Tour Down Under predictions!
Tour Down Under 2025 Winner Odds
The following Tour Down Under winner odds are courtesy of BetUS:
| CYCLIST | ODDS |
|---|---|
| Sam Welsford | +100 |
| Tobias Lund Andresen | +350 |
| Phil Bauhaus | +500 |
| Matthew Brennan | +1600 |
| Simon Dehairs | +2200 |
| Tim Torn Teutenberg | +2500 |
| Laurence Pithie | +2800 |
| Jhonatan Narvaez | +2800 |
| Arne Marit | +3300 |
| Bryan Coquard | +3300 |
The opening Tour Down Under betting odds afford Aussie Sam Welsford (+100) a 50% implied probability of winning on cycling betting sites. Currently, at even odds, Welsford has the shortest odds to win the opening event of the UCI World Tour season.
Denmark’s Tobias Lund Andresen (+350) and Germany’s Phil Bauhaus (+500) follow just behind the home-country favorite in the betting markets. Andresen holds a 22.2% implied chance to win, while Bauhaus is in the mix, with a 16.7% probability.
You can find up-to-date Tour Down Under 2025 odds at BetUS by navigating to Sportsbook > Cycling > Tour Down Under Classic Outrights.
Tour Down Under Route and Key Details
The Tour Down Under doesn’t feature any of the top stars on the UCI World Tour, but the route appears to be a great way to kick off the 2025 campaign for 20 teams and 140 cyclists.
Located in the Adelaide region of Australia, the Tour Down Under route features six stages of racing across 512.4 miles (824.6 kilometers).
ONE WEEK until the 2025 season kicks off at the Santos @tourdownunder 🚴♂️🚴♀️
From 17–26 January, #SouthAustralia will host the world’s best teams and riders, with cycling legends including Mark Cavendish travelling to the race for the 25th edition of the iconic event
🇦🇺 Explore… pic.twitter.com/V4ChBSd06H
— Tour de France™ (@LeTour) January 10, 2025
The race begins on Tuesday, Jan. 21, with a 150.7-kilometer jaunt through Williamstown and passes through Gumeracha twice, including the finish. Stage 1 will benefit riders with superior sprinting, but an average incline of five inches, peaking at 13.3%, tests racers early on.
Stage 2 features a 128.8-kilometer loop around the Barossa region. Both of the sprints for Stage 2 will take place in Greenock, which turned to the community after an impressive display for fans last year. Barossa is mostly flat, but Stage 2 still has an average incline of 6.9% and a max peak of 12.2%.
The race continues on Thursday with a 147.5-kilometer assignment for Stage 3. The opening green jersey points are available in Echunga on Adelaide Road at 39.1 kilometers.
More points are available roughly 80 kilometers later in Uraidla at 112.4 kilometers. Stage 3 features some difficult climbs, including at Norton Summit, Knott’s Hill, and Basket Range. The contenders and pretenders will be separated here.
The longest stage of the event is Stage 4’s 157.2-kilometer journey. The first major climb isn’t until the 86-kilometer mark, but a grueling peak ascent of 16.7% awaits the peloton. The finish has a sweeping left-hand turn onto George Main Road, leading into a 500-meter sprint. Stage 5 is a scenic stage with multiple vineyards, bushland, and the coastline.
Snapper Point will host both sprints in the fifth stage. Additionally, they’ll travel down Willunga Hill and then up twice. The average incline is 6.9%, with a max gradient of 13.3%. Lastly, the Tour Down Under wraps up with a highly technical Stage 6 before reaching the corner of Pennington Terrace and King William Road to the finish line on Sunday, Jan. 26!
Tour Down Under Betting Favorites in 2025
The top riders in the world, including Tadej Pogačar and Jonas Vingegaard, are passing on the Tour Down Under. However, it is shaping up to be a competitive field. The race is likely to be decided between three riders, so let’s break down the details of each favorite on sports betting sites:
Sam Welsford (+100)
Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe’s Sam Welsford will aim for another strong showing on home soil in the Tour Down Under. Welsford dominated this course a year ago, and oddsmakers are confident he will do it again.
The 28-year-old from Subiaco won Stage 1, Stage 3, and Stage 4 in the 2024 Tour Down Under. He failed to finish strong in Stage 5 and Stage 6 but secured enough points to take the points classification crown.
Welsford responded with a strong showing in the UAE Tour in February 2024. He finished in the top 5 of two stages and 12th overall in the points classification. In regional races in Australia for his season tune-up, Welsford dominated the competition in the National Championships Australia – Criterium on Jan. 10.
🇦🇺 #RoadNats25
Sam Welsford is the Aussie Criterium Champion!
What a way to kick off our Australian summer of cycling! 💥 pic.twitter.com/PM6eBgtNzg
— Red Bull – BORA – hansgrohe (@RBH_ProCycling) January 10, 2025
He is familiar with this course and has experience racing in Adelaide. Additionally, the competition isn’t too much for Welsford to deal with, so he is rightfully favored. Is he worth a play for your 2025 Tour Down Under best bet, though? I will delve into that below.
Tobias Lund Andresen (+350)
Rising contender from Denmark, Tobias Lund Andresen, is looking to build on a promising 2024 campaign. The 22-year-old recorded some career highlights for Team dsm-firmenich PostNL.
He won three stages of the Tour of Türkiye and two stages of the Tour of Denmark this past year. Lund Andresen saved one of his best performances for the last race of the 2024 campaign.
Tobias Lund Andresen wins the fourth stage of CRO Race! It was his sixth win of the season. #CROracehttps://t.co/Fh8jMaKM5m pic.twitter.com/xIw6g1otf2
— Eemeli (@LosBrolin) October 4, 2024
The native of Taastrup won Stage 4 of the Cro Race and an additional two top-five finishes. It equated to a points classification victory for Lund Andresen, as well as second for the overall victory in the general classification. Moreover, Lund Andresen emerged on top in the youth classification.
In 2024, Lund Andresen also took home the points classification crown in the Tour of Türkiye and Tour of Denmark. Look for Lund Andresen’s confidence to continue to soar this season.
He has a great opportunity to start this year off with a bang in Australia! I can’t argue against him being part of your Tour Down Under picks.
Phil Bauhaus (+500)
The top German in the field should be in contention on the final day of the Tour Down Under. Phil Bauhaus had a strong performance in the 2024 Tour Down Under.
He opened the race in Stage 1 behind Welsford to finish second. Two stages later, Bauhaus had another solid showing for ninth in Stage 3.
The 30-year-old veteran ultimately went 10th in the points classification for a respectable effort. Also, Bauhaus was in respectable form in the Tour de France!
He finished in the top 10 in five stages, including runner-up in Stage 16! Prior to the race, he also had a great performance in the Tour de Slovenia, with a stage win and third-place finish.
Replay of Phil Bauhaus winning the second stage of Tour of Slovenia #TourofSloveniahttps://t.co/Iy432U1xpE pic.twitter.com/U4lCH8sUDJ
— Eemeli (@LosBrolin) June 13, 2024
However, Bauhaus was unable to duplicate that success in two races since the Tour de France. He finished outside of the top 100 in six of seven stages in the Tour de Pologne, and then didn’t finish the Renewi Tour.
Bauhaus is a rider who could dominate this race or completely bomb out. He is inconsistent and can rarely be trusted as a winning pick. Nevertheless, if Bauhaus had a strong camp in the offseason, he will be in line for a win against a beatable field.
Best Top Tour Down Under Sleepers
Before revealing my best bet, let’s dive into the top longshot 2025 Tour Down Under picks! Two cyclists stand out on betting apps as my favorite underdogs:
2025 Tour Down Under Prediction and Betting Pick
The season opener is expected to be a competitive field in Adelaide! Cycling fans will miss the top-rated grand touring riders on the World Tour, but it should make for fantastic racing.
Based on last year’s form and offseason work, I am high on Lund Andresen emerging as a star in the Tour Down Under. The 22-year-old had some big wins and showed plenty of improvement from the previous year. He has a lot more to give and the ceiling hasn’t been reached yet, so Lund Andresen is a huge threat.
This is a wide-open event — taking the favorite doesn’t yield the best betting value at even odds on Welsford. Instead, Lund Andresen is a fantastic bet to win at +350!
Where to Bet on the Tour Down Under?
Not every online betting site is offering Tour Down Under odds this year. With that in mind, it’s important to select one of our offshore sportsbooks that has this market available. As our top recommendation for Tour Down Under betting, BetUS has everything you need to place your wagers.
BetUS offers a variety of Tour Down Under 2025 winner betting odds to dive into today. Place your bets on a safe and reliable platform with decades of experience in cycling betting. New customers can get started at BetUS by collecting one of two terrific sign-up bonuses.
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