Trump Betting Odds: Best Props and Predictions

Donald Trump to Complete a Full Term as US President Odds and Prediction

All odds in this article are courtesy of BetUS.

• • Yes -240
  • No +160

Trump had a rocky first presidency. Much of his cabinet members had resigned or been fired by the time Trump left office. Trump’s newsjacking ability also kept his administration’s chaos plastered on news feeds.

Whatever else he is, Trump is a PR savant

Returning to this site for the first time in over two years to post only a link to a GeoCities-looking website that uses a freshly taken mugshot to fundraise for a presidential campaign is – love it or hate it – elite level newsjacking https://t.co/ca0mrwMgol

— Lulu Cheng Meservey (@lulumeservey) August 25, 2023

But even after criminal investigations and two impeachments, Trump completed his first term in full. Trump has solidified his hold on the Republican voter base since his 2020 loss. With two years of a Republican congress and possibly another two with a Senate majority, Trump is likely to remain in power all four years.

His old age is also paired with the world-class healthcare available at Walter Reed Hospital. The best bet is on Trump finishing a full second term.

Will The Two-Term Presidential Time Limit Be Repealed Before 2028 Odds and Prediction

• • Yes +600

The 22^nd Amendment of the Constitution imposes a two-term limit on U.S. presidents. Congress passed that amendment after Franklin Roosevelt won four consecutive terms from 1932 to 1944.

Outside of FDR, U.S. presidents have always limited themselves to two terms. George Washington set the precedent after he announced that he wouldn’t run for a third term.

Trump spent his first term in office disregarding many presidential norms. They included releasing tax returns, attacking the press as the “enemy of the people,” and interfering with the peaceful transfer of power by denying his 2020 loss.

A particularly loyal and radical Representative or Senator may talk about repealing the 22^nd Amendment, but that would take a two-third’s vote in both chambers of Congress and 38 states to ratify it.

This is very unlikely to happen, so don’t bet on it.

Donald Trump Sr. To Be Impeached Before 2028 US Presidential Election Odds and Prediction

• • Yes +400

Trump was impeached twice during his first term. His first impeachment was over soliciting foreign interference in the presidential election. Evidence included a transcript of a call in which Trump asked the Ukrainian president to investigate Joe Biden in exchange for foreign aid. The House of Representatives impeached the president, and the Senate acquitted him.

Trump’s second impeachment was over the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2024. Trump’s failure to speak out against it led the House of Representatives to impeach Trump the week before he left office. The Senate acquitted him.

Given the extreme lengths Trump went to remain in power the first time, it’s reasonable to guess he could face impeachment from the House again. Democrats are expected to win the House back in 2026, giving the lower chamber the ability to bring impeachment charges and win a majority vote if Trump commits another impeachable act.

The best bet is a third impeachment by 2028.

What Will Donald Trump’s Favorability Rating Be on his Inauguration Day?

• 47% or Higher +125
• 46%-46.99% +175
• 45%-45.99% +350
• 44%-44.99% +700
• 43%-43.99% +2500
• 42%-42.99% +2800
• Under 42% +3000

Upon leaving office in 2021, Donald Trump’s favorability reached its lowest. Pew Research measured his approval rating at 29% in his final approval rating in office.

Trump was coming off the January 6 attack on the Capitol in which protesters who denied th 2020 election loss stormed Congress. It was the first time in American history that the United States failed to have a peaceful transfer of power.

NEW: Donald Trump’s final job approval rating as president was 29% in a poll released last week, the lowest of his presidency and a 9 percentage point drop since August. Here’s how we know the drop reflected a real shift in public opinion. https://t.co/W6amncLMYE pic.twitter.com/9cj1RMYVh7

— Pew Research Center (@pewresearch) January 20, 2021

However, Trump never lost the support of his base, so he staged a comeback to lead the Republican ticket in 2024 and win the presidential election.

Trump benefitted from President Biden’s unpopularity. Inflation and immigration sunk the Biden campaign among voters. Higher prices on ordinary goods made voters view Trump as the candidate of change.

New figures in Trump’s inner circle have bolstered his image as a disruptor. Elon Musk’s position as an advisor and his goal to cut government waste is popular among Americans who want to see the government work for them. Trump also isn’t in office yet, so he can continue to campaign until he’s inaugurated.

Given the increase in Trump’s average approval rating on FiveThirtyEight, betting on Trump to reach an approval rating above 47% on Inauguration Day is the prudent bet.

Who Will Trump Pardon in His First 100 Days?

• January 6th Protestors -2000
• Ross Ulbricht -400
• Steve Bannon +125
• Edward Snowden +350
• Julian Assange +400
• Eric Adams +600
• Sam Bankman-Fried +1600
• Young Thug +1000
• P. Diddy +1600

Trump promised to pardon January 6th rioters throughout the campaign. He also promised to commute Ross Ulbricht’s sentence. Ulbricht founded Silk Road, a dark web site that allowed transactions in crypto and of illegal substances on an untraceable site. The problem is that the odds are low on both, so I’m not too happy with them.

One of the remaining profitable pardons is Steve Bannon, a far-right influencer who founded Breitbart. Today, he’s one of the figures most committed to building a global far-right populist movement.

Bannon was charged with contempt of Congress when he ignored a subpoena to testify before the January 6 Committee investigating the attack on the Capitol. As a key strategist and advisor in Trump’s first term, Bannon is a galvanizing force among parts of Trump’s base.

A bet on Steve Bannon to receive a pardon in Trump’s first 100 days is the best pick here. Trump

Who Will Donald Trump Pardon Before 2026?

• January 6th Protestors -1600
• Ross Ulbricht -300
• Steve Bannon +150
• Edward Snowden +175
• Julian Assange +200
• Matt Gaetz +700
• Eric Adams +800
• Robert Menendez +900
• Young Thug +1000
• Sam Bankman-Fried +1600

Presidential pardons normally come at the end of a president’s term to avoid damage to the next campaign. But Trump is anything but conventional.

Trump has already pledged pardons to January 6 rioters and Silk Road founder, Ross Ulbricht. Other people he could be convinced to pardon over time include Julian Assange and Matt Gaetz.

Gaetz has the higher potential payout. He has been accused of flying two women to New York to pay them for sex and sex with a minor. That’s before the illegal drug use and alleged drug-fueled orgies the House Ethics Committee heard details of.

Above all, Gaetz is a Trump loyalist and was originally Trump’s Attorney General nominee. Gaetz’s proximity to Trump could land him a pardon for the investigations piling up against him. It may not be a priority in Trump’s first 100 days, but it could happen in Trump’s first year back in office.

The best bet here is a pardon for Matt Gaetz in Trump’s first year.