We’ve crunched the fight tape and stats to bring you UFC 281 odds with an expert pick for each fight. The top UFC betting sites have odds for all fourteen bouts, and you can place your bet on any fight by November 10th, 2022 at 6:00 PM ET.
UFC 281 Predictions and Parlay
Our top bets for UFC 281 include the following Parlay picks. Scroll to each fight for a detailed review of our underdog and value picks.
- Dustin Porier -230
- Renato Moicano -134
- Ottman Azaitar -140
UFC 281 Odds
Below we’ve listed the fighters and money lines with a short synopsis that includes our top bets and how to play them.
Alex Pereira +175 vs Israel Adesanya -220
Pereira’s rapid movement to a title shot is mostly driven by his hype. In kickboxing and MMA, Pereira is one of the few men to ever beat Adesanya. In MMA, Perriera’s 6-1 record pales in comparison to the other contenders, and his performance against Bruno Silva was a lackluster one, showing just how terrible his ground game is.
Betting on Israel Adesanya’s Strategy
Will we see Adesanya go for a takedown for the first time in his career? Doubtful, given his dedication to point fighting over his last three title defenses. Israel has evolved dramatically since his second loss to Periera in March 2017. The UFC 281 odds reflect these changes. Namely, Israel’s newfound focus on defensive kickboxing, giving up only 2.67 significant strikes per minute in his UFC career. Pereira’s average 3.36 strikes absorbed per minute (against a lower quality of fighter overall) speak to those changes in Izzy’s style.
Adesanya Money Line -220
While special bets like “Izzy to land 80+ Sig Strikes” at -275 are tempting, we see this as Izzy’s chance at redemption. He’ll look to win by any means necessary, even if the fight is boring, so we’re not counting on a high volume bout. Wrestling could and should play a role, because Pereira is behind the curve, but Israel has made an MMA rule set specific fight game that gets our bet for Saturday night.
Carla Esparza +300 vs Weili Zhang -400
Seeing the champ come off a six fight winning streak into 3:1 odds is shocking. Zhang lost her last two fights for the title and beat Jedrzejczyk after a two year lay off. That’s not exactly the road to the title we expected to see. We looked at Esparza’s takedowns, a 3.25 average, against Zhang’s paltry 60% defense to make our pick.
Esparza Money Line, Over 2.5 Rounds
The champ has the momentum, and her performances against Rose make her a better pick than Zhang. Esparza would like to drag the fight out, so the Over 2.5 at -190 is the right pick for Zhang fans. Don’t bet on the early stoppage, because both fighters have a steel chin, with Esparza showing inconsistent early stoppages.
Dustin Porier -230 vs Michael Chandler +185
Porier’s last bout was a year ago when he lost the title to Oliveira. Beating McGregor in back to back knockout showings in 2021, Porier has made a name for himself as the underdog to bet on in upsets and near upset wins. Chandler has underperformed as the underdog, losing to Gaethje and Oliveira with +100 to +120 positions. Age is a factor, as Chandler approaches 37 we’re less inclined to believe he has a title run left in him.
Poirier Money Line, No Decision Prop, Poirier by KO
Chandler has only been finished by Oliveira in the UFC, but three other times in his MMA career. Poirier is in a similar position, with a chin that must be feeling the multiple career knockouts and brutal wars with other 155 and 145 contenders. We see a short fight, with the Fight Goes the Distance prop at -240, the UFC 281 odds at Bovada agree with us.
Chris Gutierrez -220 vs Frankie Edgar +180
Edgar is coming back as a slight underdog despite going 2-5 over his last four years of competition and taking 13 months off. Once known for having an iron chin, Edgar has four knockout losses to his name. Gutierrez is on a three fight winning streak, and has two UFC finishes to his record.
Gutierrez Money Line, Gutierrez by TKO +175, No Decision Prop
Chris is on a roll and he’s being fed this one time champion. We see a knockout as a very solid value bet. With Edgar’s last two wins over Munhoz and Swanson being decisions; don’t expect any Edgar fireworks upsets. At 41, Edgar will need a miracle or Andrei Arlovski’s pharmacist to get back in the win column against the up and comers.
Claudio Puelles +125 vs Dan Hooker -150
Hooker has been on an unfortunate losing streak, dropping four of his last five against some of the biggest names in the sport, including Allen, Makhachev, Chandler and Poirier. Puelles is on a four fight winning streak despite being a one trick fighter. He looks for the takedown and kneebar, each and every fight, with three UFC wins from the kneebar alone.
Puelles Money Line, Under 2.5 Rounds -150
Both fighters have the tools to dismantle the other. Hooker has a better chance of scoring the finish, and Puelles fans may look to the UFC 281 betting odds for their over 1.5 rounds prop at -175. As a fan, it’s tough to shy away from the Puelles Submission prop at +225, but how many kneebars can this guy get at the UFC level? We have to believe that the Hooker camp would be highly prepared for leg lock submission escapes.
Renato Moicano – Brad Riddell is going to be such a banger this weekend pic.twitter.com/Krb8GEhnPl
— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) November 10, 2022
Brad Riddell +100 vs Renato Moicano -134
Riddell has been finished twice in a row, but he’s competitive as the underdog. Moicano lost to Fiziev in the first round, and we have reason to believe his chin is nowhere near Riddell’s. If this comes down to an exchange of fire power, Riddell will take the night. Our biggest concern for a Riddell money line has to be the takedown, and Moicano’s wrestling has looked crisp in his last two wins.
Moicano Money Line, Moicano by Submission
Both fighters are looking for a comeback win after facing top fifteen athletes. Moicano proved he’s on another level just going to the five round decision with RDA. His submission prop pays 4:1 despite Riddell’s recent submission loss and Moicano’s five UFC level submission wins.
Dominick Reyes -220 vs Ryan Spann +175
Putting Reyes on the undercard is a shock. He’s faced two champions and one future champ in his last three fights, and was competitive in each bout arguably winning the fight with Jones on paper. Spann is 2-2 over his last four, and was crushed by Smith and Walker, both fighters outside the top five.
Reyes Money Line -220
The $46 return per $100 wager on the Reyes UFC 281 odds is too good to pass up. We would bet it solo as a value bet or tack it onto a parlay with confidence. Reyes keeps a higher pace, is far tougher to takedown, and has competed at a far higher level than Spann. This is as close to a sure thing as UFC 281 has to offer.
Erin Blanchfield -400 vs Molly McCann +500
Blanchfield is being touted as the next title contender. Her win over JJ Aldrich put her on the path to bigger fights, but her other two wins (Maverick and Alpar) have a combined five UFC wins. McCann has six UFC wins and two back to back finishes. She struggled with Talia Santos, and Blanchfield’s average 3.99 takedowns per bout is a discouraging stat for Meatball fans.
Blanchfield Money Line
McCann’s wrestling has improved, but she hasn’t faced a decent takedown artist since her last loss. Nothing about the last three performances shows that she’s ready for Blanchfield’s takedown game. Still, McCann fans may look to the massive return on a McCann KO at +650.
Andre Petroski -200 vs Wellington Turman +160
Petroski is undefeated in the UFC, finishing all three fights by KO or submission. Wellington Turman is 3-3, coming off a massive upset win over Misha Cirkunov. Turnman’s stats don’t look great, and all signs on paper point to a Petroski win.
Petroski Money Line -200, Petroski by Finish
At -200 Petroski is an absolute steal. If he finishes Turman, we won’t see him at -200 again until he breaks the top ten. This is one of our parlay picks, with Petroski winning takedowns, finishes, strikes absorbed and landed, and overall win percentage.
Matt Frevola +115 vs Ottman Azaitar -140
Frevola has been knocked out twice in his UFC career, and Azaitar debuted with back to back UFC TKO’s in the first round. Ottman has no losses, but Frevola is easily the most dangerous opponent he’s faced to date. Azaitar was hit only nine times in his last two appearances.
Ottman Azaitar Money Line, Azaitar TKO or Decision -115
Azaitar has all the tools to beat Frevola. Frevola’s average strikes absorbed and landed is near 1-1, and he was bulldozed in his fight with Terrance McKinney, losing in just four strikes. Frevola can’t go tit for tat with Azaitar, and that’s the strategy he uses to win the majority of his UFC showings.
Karolina Kowalkiewicz -115 vs Silvana Gomez Juarez -105
Both of these fighters have struggled in the UFC, but Karolina is the slight favorite after coming off an upset win over Felice Herrig. UFC 281 odds show Juarez as the underdog given her submission defense. Kowalkiewicz had a win over Rose Namajunas in 2016, but at 37, she’s seen her most competitive era.
Under 2.5 Rounds +105, Juarez Money Line
Neither fighter stands out as someone to consider. This bout is razor close, and it may simply come down to who catches who in a bad decision or with a lucky shot. We give Juarez a slight advantage given her knockout power, but her lack of BJJ skill is glaring.
Michael Trizano +134 vs Seung Woo Choi -164
Trizano hasn’t won a fight in 2022, dropping to 3-3 for the UFC. Choi is 3-4 in the UFC after back to back losses. He’s the favorite, if only because of his finish of Julian Erosa. Choi’s knockout power stands out, and Trizano’s submission and TKO losses put him at a disadvantage.
Choi Money Line, Fight Completes 1 Full Round -650
When Dawodu beat Trizano, he did so with a much higher average pace of striking than his usual performances. Choi is consistent if he’s anything, and even in losses, he puts his 3 significant strikes per minute on whoever is in front of him. UFC 281 odds are fair for the risk Choi money line, but the fight completes round 1 prop is perfect for a parlay.
Julio Arce +175 vs Montel Jackson -220
The UFC has blessed us with a couple of finishers on the early card. Jackson has had seven knockdowns in his last four fights, and three UFC finishes in eight. Arce has five fights in the UFC that have ended early, with three of his last five fights ending in rounds 2 & 3.
Jackson Money Line, No Decision prop +110
Montell should beat Arce, even if the fight goes to decision. Fans of Arce should look to the ‘Fight Goes the Distance, No’ prop bet, hoping for a flash knockout. However, Jackson has never been finished in his entire career, so it’s tough to bank on anything other than the Jackson money line.
Carlos Ulberg -130 vs Nicolae Negumereanu +110
Nicolae won a controversial decision over Nzechukwu and Aleksa Camur that has him winning four straight. Hopefully Ulberg sees this history and looks for the finish early and often. The under prop bets look good, with Ulberg seeing 75% UFC finishes to Nicolae’s 40%.
Ulberg Money Line -130
Negumereanu has been outstruck in three of his five UFC showings. Ulberg has the kind of power where this isn’t going to be an acceptable outcome. Negumereanu’s chin is very solid, so it’s tough to make a call on Ulberg winning by decision or TKO, but the UFC 281 odds on his money line are priced right for a value bet.
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UFC 281 Odds at Online Gambling Sites
If you’re looking to explore the 22 betting markets and dozens of bets available on each fight of UFC 281, check out the legal gambling sites below. Each sports book has special bets for Adesanya vs Pereira that you won’t see anywhere else.
