This Saturday, February 11th, 2023, we will see a double title fight UFC card and a possible two division champ by time it’s all said and done. Let’s dig into the fighter stats and predict the best bets for UFC 284.
UFC 284 Predictions
| Bet | Odds | Payout per $100 (Rounded) |
|---|---|---|
| Makhachev Money Line (Top Parlay Pick) | -400 | $25 |
| Rodriguez Money Line | -170 | $58 |
| Jack Della Maddalena Money LIne (Value Bet of the Night) | -325 | $31 |
| Porter Money Line | +110 | $110 |
| Crute vs Menefield: Fight Goes the Distance, No | -350 | $28 |
| Pedro Money Line | -250 | $40 |
| Baghdasaryan vs Culibao Over 2.5 Rounds | -175 | $57 |
| Kleydson Rodrigues Money Line | -325 | $31 |
| Bilder Money Line | +115 | $115 |
| Shainis vs Jenkins: Fight Goes the Distance, No | -225 | $44 |
| Mullarkey Money Line | -275 | $36 |
| Eves Brenner Money Line (Upset of the Night) | +425 | $425 |
We’re expecting the favorite money line in about half of the bouts. Prop bets are your best choice, for roughly 15% of the time, and our biggest upset pick is best played with a small bet relative to the rest of your ticket.
UFC 284 Odds and Fighter Breakdown
Here is a quick look at each fight, how to play our top bet, and some alternate betting options given your fandom and sense of each fighter. UFC 284 odds show several close bouts, but take a look at the UFC stats before making a final decision.
Alex Volkanovski +300 vs Islam Makhachev -400
This is Volkanovski’s first time as an underdog since his 2019 bout with Jose Aldo. He upset both Aldo and Mendes as a +125 dog, but has maintained favorite status in all other bouts.
Having never demonstrated the kind of 1 punch knockout power that put Islam away in 2015 (Adriano Martins), it’s a struggle to think we could see Volkanovski win anything other than a decision. Makhachev is a better top grappler than Ortega, who outclassed Alex in technical BJJ skill.
Our top bets include the Islam money line, a $25 return per $100 wager, or the yet to be released Islam Makhachev submission or KO finish prop bet, which we estimate will hover around -150.
Josh Emmett +141 vs Yair Rodriguez -170
These are the current odds as of 2/7/2022, but are subject to change. This interim featherweight title bout gives Emmett an interesting position. We had him losing to Kattar, and he won a narrow decision despite losing on paper nearly every round.
Rodrigues is a slower paced striker than Kattar, but also a much safer one. His loss to Holloway puts him at 3-1 since 2018, with two finishes. Yair can knock Emmett out, especially if you consider the Jeremy Stephens footage. Bet the Rodriguez money line, or the Under 4.5 rounds at +140 for Emmett fans.
Jack Della Maddalena. That’s it, that’s the tweet. pic.twitter.com/yExfc9K2uB
— The Filthy Casual (@MMAfilthycasual) February 6, 2023
Jack Della Maddalena -325 vs Randy Brown +250
Maddalena is on the rise with three consecutive UFC knockouts. Brown feels like the wrong choice. He already has two KO losses on his record and, at 32, his chin isn’t improving. Williams even knocked him down in their 2022 match up, nearly winning the fight.
Bet Maddalena money line for our top value bet of our UFC 284 predictions, or consider his knockout prop bet for a bigger win once odds are released around Wednesday.
Justin Tafa -130 vs Parker Porter +110
After a rough 2-3 UFC run, we thought Tafa would see more underdog status. Porter is 3-2 and hasn’t fought in the UFC since his May 2022 loss to wrecking ball Jailton Almeida. Porter has a high rate of activity and we think he’ll end Tafa’s 100% takedown defense record.
This is an upset waiting to happen and we’re steering clear of the props. Tafa vs Carlos Felipe felt like a finish waiting to happen and it went long. Don’t be pulled in by the -150 under UFC 284 odds.
Alonzo Menifield +170 vs Jimmy Crute -210
Crute should win by submission, but that’s what we thought about his fight with Jamahal Hill. Menifield is a good grappler, but this is a clear step up in competition. He’s mostly fought fighters on the way up or out.
Crute is very much a contender, given their fight history, one of them is taking an early night. No surprise to see the “Will the Fight Go the Distance, No” bet at -350. Add it to your parlay.
Modestas Bukauskas +200 vs Tyson Pedro -250
Pedro’s 5-3 UFC record has only one decision, a loss to Ilir Latifi in 2017. He’s being thrown a meatball of a fight in the form of Bukauskas, who can hit like a truck but has failed to see success at 1-3 in the UFC.
Pedro is still building up his record with the right fights, and even though the finishing props are enticing, we’re saying stick to the money line. We expect Pedro to respect his power, and if the finish comes it will come naturally.
A hidden banger on the Perth card, Melsik Baghdasaryan vs Joshua Culibao. The kickboxing is going to be sweet tune in for this one. #MMATwitter pic.twitter.com/Td1b4qOLKK
— MELSIK BAGHDASARYAN TITLE RUN STARTS NOW (@PepePog9) January 14, 2023
Joshua Culibao -115 vs Melsik Baghdasaryan -105
This is one of the more competitive fights on the card, with both fighters showing moderate knockout power and a history of outworking fighters at the UFC level for decision wins. With one loss a piece, it’s safe to say we have a longer fight, and the Over 2.5 rounds at -175 is the safest bet.
We would move our UFC 284 prediction to Over 1.5 if it hovers around -215. We have a slight favorite in Baghdasaryan but will avoid the money line.
Kleydson Rodrigues -325 vs Shannon Ross +255
The UFC is throwing Shannon Ross a bone after his beating at DWCS. The 7-2 Rodrigues was robbed in his bout against CJ Vergara, and he has the favorite status for a reason. Rodrigues is an athlete, there is no telling how he’ll beat Ross, but we’re sure that his money line is your top bet.
Blake Bilder +115 vs Shane Young -140
The undefeated Bilder is a little green to be facing a fighter like Young, but after reviewing fight tape, it looks like he’ll out pace him. Young has been with the UFC since 2017 going 2-3, and at 29 he’s in his prime.
Bilder is a little late to the game, but he’s very strong, and his status as former Cage Fury champion and a submission machine makes us confident in a long grappling match with an upset outcome. Bet Bidler, or the over props if you’re a Shane Young fan.
Don Shainis +265 vs Jack Jenkins -345
Jenkins is more consistent but only slightly more proven than Shainis. His striking looked great at DWCS, but given that Don is more of a striker than grappler, this should be a more competitive fight. Tentatively, bet the UFC 284 odds for Jenkins money line.
We think the payout is a bit weak for the risk, and it may be a good idea to bet the “Fight Goes the Distance, No” prop (-225) at the top UFC betting sites.
Francisco Prado +220 vs Jamie Mullarkey -275
Prado is undefeated, but has only fought in Argentinian local MMA. This is his first test on the world stage, and it’s against a 3-3 UFC vet. Mullarkey has never been submitted and his 66% takedown defense is a problem for the ground game focused Prado.
We’re taking the money line, and I’m convinced we see Prado gas by late round two. The UFC 284 odds for a Mullarkey “knockout or decision” will be released 2/8 or 2/9 and that may be a good bet if you’re looking for a stronger payout.
Elise Reed +220 vs Loma Lookboonmee -275
Both fighters are split between UFC wins and losses, but Lookboonmee is the far superior striker on paper. Reed gets hit at a rate of 3.57 significant strikes per minute, a full hit above her 2.77 landing rate. We may see another Reed knockout loss, so don’t be enticed by the Over parlay given Loma’s decision heavy history.
Elves Brenner +420 vs Zubaira Tukhugov -575
Big favorite Zubaira is 4-3 in the UFC, going to split decision 4 times. He’s focused on takedowns, and shoots an average of five per bout, racking up control time. Elves is a madman, who will lose decisions to fighters of varying ability, but will constantly look for the finish.
His guard is fantastic, and I’m interested to see this match up. You could parlay the Zubaira money line, which we see as too big of a favorite. The UFC 284 odds for Tukhugov should be closer to -330 given his performance against Lerone Murphy.
Instead, we’re going to bet the Brenner money line, and possibly the Brenner by submission prop, which could get close to +700 by this weekend.
UFC 284 Predictions: Easy Money on Makhachev and The Biggest Upset of 2023
Islam is a better fighter than Volk. On paper, he gives up less control time and amasses more. He hits harder, and finishes more opponents. He’s larger, and Volkanovski is almost too short for featherweight let alone lightweight. He’s an incredible champion, but the Makhachev parlay bet cannot be skipped.
Elves Brenner is an interesting fighter, and his devil-may-care style is exactly how fighters like Zubaira lose. Think Paul Craig vs Ankalaev. This could be UFC 284’s biggest payout and the biggest upset this year so far.
Sources
UFC 284 Fighter Stats UFCstats.com,
Past MMA odds bestfightodds.com
UFC 284 Fighter Info and Stats tapology.com.
