On Saturday, September 9, the UFC returns to PPV action live from the Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia, for UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland.
The main event of the night is a middleweight championship fight as Israel Adesanya puts his title on the line against Sean Strickland.
UFC 293 odds feature close fights, with the champ and only one other fighter above -350. We’ll take a deep dive into your prop bet options for higher payouts at the best UFC betting sites, and build an airtight parlay ticket to wrap it up.
UFC 293 Betting Odds
Our top bets are made out of moneylines in all, but one fight. We’ve chosen three upsets across the twelve-fight card, but you can bet safely on value favorites like flyweight Manel Kape, paying out $28.57 per $100 wager. If you’re still learning how to build your ticket, check out our UFC betting guide for reference. All UFC 293 odds are courtesy of BetOnline.
| Bet | Odds |
|---|---|
| Israel Adesanya | -650 |
| Alexander Volkov | -250 |
| Austen Lane | +170 |
| Turkalj vs Pedro: Under 2.5 Rounds | -220 |
| Manel Kape | -350 |
| Carlos Ulberg | -245 |
| Jack Jenkins | -221 |
| Jamie Mularkey | -270 |
| Charlie Radtke | -300 |
| Gabriel Miranda | +159 |
| Nasrat Haqparast | -500 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | +135 |
Underdogs like welterweight Kiefer Crosbie are slated to be in razor-close fights. We think a two-fight parlay including upsets from Crosbie and featherweight Gabriel Miranda make for a high-confidence parlay, paying out +509 or $509 per $100 wagered.
UFC 293 Predictions
The main card for UFC 293 is packed with fights that shouldn’t go the distance. Bettors will see a majority of under prop bets as the favorite, often stronger than either fighter’s moneyline. We’ve included a few predictions on fight finishes, but still see the moneylines as the top value across the card.
Israel Adesanya (-650) vs Sean Strickland (+475)
After losing to Alex Pereira, Israel Adesanya won an immediate rematch. This two-fight series with Pereira came after Adesanya’s unsuccessful attempt to beat light-heavyweight champion Jan Blachowicz.
Sean Strickland feels a bit out of left field, and a way for Adesanya to pad his championship record. Strickland is a popular fighter, but he’s only #5 in the rankings. Alongside a 2-2 record in his last four contests, he was starched by Periera last July in a one-sided affair. Adesanya is a no-brainer bet.
Sean Strickland clowning Israel Adesanya for getting knocked out by Alex Pereira at the press conference aged really badly 😭 pic.twitter.com/OO3Nj8HJVY
— MMA Tea Talk (@MMATeaTalk) July 4, 2022
Top Prop Bets for Adesanya vs Strickland
| Prop Bet | UFC 293 Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 4.5 Rounds | -120 |
| Adesanya by TKO | +115 |
If you’re staying away from a conservative value bet or an Adesanya parlay addition, consider the above props. Adesanya by TKO giving you a 1-to-1 return is fantastic. Adesanya was getting stale repeatedly fighting grapplers, and this is his opportunity to shine with consecutive TKOs.
A short look at the UFC stats show that Adesanya boasts of a better reach, height, striking defense, and takedown accuracy than Strickland. Unless Strickland suddenly becomes a better wrestler than Marvin Vettori, there is no winning this one.
See a full list of prop bets for the main event at the safest sports betting sites, which include 16 betting markets and special bets like ‘Adesanya lands over 50 jabs.’
Tai Tuivasa (+210) vs Alexander Volkov (-250)
Heavyweight Alexander Volkov has some weaknesses in the grappling department, but his UFC 293 odds of -250 feel generous. Tai Tuivasa has been knocked out twice in the past year via brutal fashion from Sergei Pavlovich and Ciryl Gane.
Tuivasa’s career-best winning streak featured the five-fight run that ended with knocking out Derrick Lewis, but many of the fighters on that list were beyond their prime. Greg Hardy barely counts and Stefan Struve should have stayed retired.
Top Prop Bets for Tuivasa vs Volkov
| Prop Bet | UFC 293 Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -115 |
| Volkov by TKO | +115 |
After consecutive knockouts of contenders Alexander Romanov and Jairzinho Rozenstruik, Volkov’s striking looks honed in. The combined fight time for these two wins is only four minutes and 28 seconds. Additionally, his last four knockouts needed only 131 significant strikes. We think this will look closer to the Gane fight, and Tuicasa will fall in the third round.
If you’re betting the Volkov TKO, keep it off your parlay. Tuivasa could show up more reserved, and this could look similar to the Arlovski fight back in 2018. He’s capable of technical kickboxing matches when he feels inclined to make them.
Manel Kape (-350) vs Felipe dos Santos (+285)
With no shortage of exciting fights, flyweight Manel Kape is now 3-2 in the UFC, with both losses coming via close decisions. He’s facing a newcomer in Felipe dos Santos, an undefeated fighter out of Brazil.
Santos is 22 and fights out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima alongside Charles Oliveira. He has faced some high-quality local fighters, but Kape is a huge step up in competition.
Top Prop Bets for Kape vs Santos
| Prop Bet | UFC 293 Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -170 |
| Kape by Finish | -185 |
Looking at their fight footage, it’s clear that Kape brings a kind of aggression and power to the cage that Santos isn’t going to be accustomed to. We see an early finish for Kape. The under is tough to bet because Santos hasn’t been finished and Kape has never been finished inside the UFC. Still, it’s preferential to a decision bet.
Kape has shown a kind of Mexican boxing style that’s emphasized by fighting in the pocket. He’s willing to take and land strikes at a similar rate, and that’s tough to gameplan for. We see Felipe dos Santos stifled by inexperience in this fight.
Justin Tafa (-200) vs Austen Lane (+170)
After a no-contest eye gouge in their last fight, heavyweights Austen Lane and Justin Tafa match up again. Lane was putting it on Tafa in the early moments of their fight in June, before the foul ended the match.
Lane is 1-1 in the DWCS, with both fights ending via knockout. He’s 12-3 and a true athlete. We believe he’ll continue to improve with each fight. Tafa was on a two-fight knockout streak, putting him at 3-3 in the UFC. With losses to Jared Vanderaa and Yorgan de Castro, Tafa’s inconsistency shows us Lane’s path to victory.
Top Prop Bets for Tafa vs Lane
| Prop Bet | UFC 293 Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 1.5 Rounds | -225 |
| Lane by TKO | +285 |
If you’re nervous about a Lane win, betting the under prop is a high value wager. Lane can be knocked out and was finished by Greg Hardy with a haymaker in his DWCS bout. Tafa was put away by De Castro with only four strikes in their 2019 fight. Both men have power and neither has an elite-level defense.
Tyson Pedro (-108) vs Anton Turkalj (-115)
With a 2-3 record in his last five fights, light heavyweight Tyson Pedro comes in as a slight underdog against a fighter with no UFC wins. Anton Turkalj is 0-2 in the UFC after a DWCS decision back in July 2022.
When Pedro wins, it’s by finish. All five of his UFC wins are either via submission or TKO, including against some high-profile fighters like Khalil Rountree and Paul Craig. Turkalj has finishes outside of the UFC, and he was submitted with ease by Jailton Almeida in 2022.
Top Prop Bets for Pedro vs Turkalj
| Prop Bet | UFC 293 Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 2.5 Rounds | +180 |
| Pedro by Points | +450 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -220 |
We think this fight gets cut short. Turkalj has to know that his UFC days are numbered if he can’t get a win. Pedro can’t do anything, but finish or lose trying to get the finish.
Carlos Ulberg (-245) vs Da Woon Jung (+210)
With a nearly perfect record, the 9-1 light heavyweight Carlos Ulberg is on a four-fight winning streak and a three-fight knockout streak. He’s facing Da Woon Jung, who knocked out Kennedy Nzechukwu, the only man to beat Ulberg.
Ulberg is a powerhouse and just couldn’t put Kennedy away that night. He landed sixty more strikes than Kennedy, but was clipped with a shot that put Ulberg down in the second round. Da Woon has been finished by Dustin Jacoby and his 2020 loss to Sam Alvey is tough to overlook.
Ulberg is an alternate for our four-fight parlay at the end of the card, and could easily replace Manel Kape or Jack Jenkins if you’re nervous about their UFC 293 odds.
Jack Jenkins (-221) vs Chepe Mariscal (+170)
Undefeated in the UFC is featherweight Jack Jenkins, coming off a decision win over the dangerous Jamall Emmers. Chepe Mariscal (14-6-1) made his UFC debut in January, which was a win over Trevor Peek. He’s a great wrestler, but we think Jenkins’ hand-fighting style will stump his takedown entries.
We’re betting Jack takes the decision in a Fight of the Night win.
This was so fucking cool Jack Jenkins has some of the most violent leg kicks you’ll ever see in MMA pic.twitter.com/pQZn1pml1b
— 154 lb Bendaman🇦🇺 (@Bendaman2001) February 12, 2023
Jamie Mularkey (-270) vs John Makdessi (+230)
4-4 in the UFC, lightweight Jamie Mullarkey has finishing power and wrestling over John Makdessi. UFC 293 odds for Makdessi make him a minor underdog, but at 38 years old, it’s tough to see how Makdessi can win the decision with no takedown offense and no knockout power left. Makdessi’s last finish was in 2015.
Nasrat Haqparast (-500) vs Landon Quinones (+375)
The second-biggest favorite at UFC 293 sportsbooks is lightweight Nasrat Haqparast, who is 6-4 in the UFC. He struggles with technical strikers like Bobby Green and Dan Hooker, but has been improving every fight since his 2017 debut.
UFC newcomer Landon Quinones is 7-1-1 with five knockout wins. He lost in round one of TUF 31 to Jason Knight and Haqparast is far above all of Quinones’ other opponents. This will be a good win for the developing UFC vet.
Mike Mathetha (+250) vs Charlie Radtke (-300)
Welterweight Charlie Radtke is another UFC newcomer making a debut at the UFC 293 event. He’s going up against Mike Mathetha, who’s 0-2 in the UFC. Radtke only needs to avoid the knockout to win this fight. Out of MMA Masters, Radtke is a wrestler with knockout power that has beaten two undefeated fighters in his last four fights.
Shane Young (-184) vs Gabriel Miranda (+159)
Featherweight Gabriel Miranda lost his UFC debut to Benoit Saint Denis in 2022. He’s fighting Shane Young, who was unfortunate enough to face Alexander Volkanovski in his UFC debut. Young has now lost three fights in a row, and looks like an easy target for Miranda’s first win. We’ve included his UFC 293 odds in our two-fight underdog parlay.
Kevin Jousset (-155) vs Kiefer Crosbie (+135)
Kicking off the card is UFC newcomer Kiefer Crosbie, who’s fighting in the welterweight division. The Irishman is out of SBG and has plenty of finishing power. Debuting fighter Kevin Jousset is 8-2 overall, but has questionable recent fights like the 0-1 James Craughwell just last December.
We expect Crosbie to come in having faced more adversity overall. He’s a powerhouse with the kind of pressure fighting that City Kickboxing athletes like Jousset seem to struggle with. In terms of technical kickboxing, Jousset is ahead. However, Crosbie will make this a scrappy fight and take the win.
UFC 293 Showing Multiple Parlay Options
We see another win for middleweight champion Adesanya alongside Kape, Haqparast and Jenkins. These four fighters make up a parlay bet totaling +159 odds. That means, for every $100 you wager on this four-leg UFC parlay, you will win $159 dollars.
UFC 293 odds for the upset and, our massive two-fight upset parlay, offer higher payouts and a similar level of risk. Weigh your options and think about splitting your bets between the two parlays.
We recommend placing these UFC parlays at BetOnline. It’s one of our favorite online betting sites to place MMA parlays due to their competitive odds, quick navigation, smooth interface, and vast selection of MMA wagers. Bovada also offers incredible welcome bonuses of up to $1000 for first time depositors.
