The UFC 305 odds for a massive card in a huge pay-per-view card taking place on August 17, at the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia. This is the first time the company is Down Under since it was in Sydney in September 2023, and the first time back in Perth since February 2023.
Israel Adesanya is aiming for a better result than he had in Sydney that night, as he lost the middleweight title to Sean Strickland. Adesanya looks to regain his title for the third time against Dricus Du Plessis, who defeated Strickland to take the belt in January 2024.
I’ll assess the UFC 305 betting odds for this main-event fight, as well as the flyweight clash between Kai Kara-France and Steve Erceg. The winner of that fight will go on to face champion Alexandre Pantoja, or whoever he faces later this year.
I’ll analyze both fights before presenting my UFC betting predictions, best bets, and picks!
All UFC 305 odds are courtesy of BetOnline. You can find these odds by navigating to Sports > Martial Arts > UFC 305.
Israel Adesanya vs. Du Plessis Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Israel Adesanya: -125
- Dricus Du Plessis: +105
The UFC 305 betting odds are siding with Israel Adesanya (24-3) as of August 1, although they’ve been very close since they were released. However, even as the challenger, it’s not a surprise that Adesanya, who fights out of Auckland, New Zealand, but was born in Nigeria, is the favorite. He’s a two-time middleweight champion and one of the greatest middleweights of all time.
Dricus Du Plessis (21-2) is looking to move up the ladder in terms of the all-time greats, but he currently holds the belt after a tough split-decision win over Strickland. The promotion for this fight started back at UFC 290, after Du Plessis defeated former champ Robert Whittaker in a title eliminator.
Keep an eye on UFC betting sites like BetOnline for this fight. Adesanya is a deserving favorite, but Du Plessis is a dangerous underdog and the odds could go either way before August 17.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| ISRAEL ADESANYA | FIGHTERS | DRICUS DU PLESSIS |
|---|---|---|
| 35 | AGE | 30 |
| 24 | WINS | 21 |
| 3 | LOSSES | 2 |
| 6’4†| HEIGHT | 6’0†|
| 185 LBS | WEIGHT | 185 LBS |
| 80†| REACH | 76†|
| SWITCH | STANCE | SWITCH |
There’s an excellent chance that this fight will be fought standing up. Adesanya is an accomplished kickboxer with 16 knockout wins on his resume. Adesanya fought 80 times as a professional kickboxer, going 75-5 with 29 knockouts. But Du Plessis also came from the kickboxing world, going undefeated in 33 amateur matches with 30 knockouts. It’s not quite the professional level, but it’s impressive nonetheless.
Where it gets interesting is if Du Plessis decides to take this fight to the mat. Du Plessis has won 10 fights via submission. Even though he is larger than the men in this video, it’s still stunning that he managed to beat an entire Brazilian jiu-jitsu team (a Gracie team, at that) in one night.
Adesanya has a 78% takedown-defense rate, but it could be tested against Du Plessis if Adesanya gets his world-class kickboxing going.
Recent Performances and Form
Adesanya’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision, September 10, 2023
- WIN vs. Alex Pereira via KO, April 8, 2023
- LOSS vs. Alex Pereira via TKO, November 12, 2022
- WIN vs. Jared Cannonier via Unanimous Decision, July 2, 2022
- WIN vs. Robert Whittaker via Unanimous Decision, February 12, 2022
Adesanya had a busy 2022, taking a unanimous decision in a February rematch with Whittaker that was much closer than the first match, a knockout win for “The Last Stylebender”. Adesanya then dominated Jared Cannonier via unanimous decision in July before losing the belt by knockout to Alex Pereira in November. Two of Adesanya’s five kickboxing losses came against Pereira, including in his final match by knockout.
Adesanya turned the tables when the two met in April 2023, winning by KO in the second round. But Adesanya looked lethargic in losing the belt to Strickland in September 2023. He seemed very tentative to engage and was even knocked down once by Strickland, who had 137 significant strikes to 94 for Adesanya.
The former champion is excellent when he is motivated, which is sometimes an issue for Adesanya. He seems to have plenty of vitriol for the current champion, but Adesanya can’t let his emotions get the best of him.
Du Plessis’ Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Sean Strickland via Split Decision, January 20, 2024
- WIN vs. Robert Whittaker via TKO, July 8, 2023
- WIN vs. Derek Brunson via TKO, March 4, 2023
- WIN vs. Darren Till via Submission, December 10, 2022
- WIN vs. Brad Tavares via Unanimous Decision, July 2, 2022
Du Plessis, who hails from South Africa, survived a strong first round from Brad Tavares to win a unanimous decision in July 2022, and then battled Darren Till to earn a third-round submission win, hitting all six of his takedowns. Next was a slugfest with Derek Brunson, which ended at 4:59 of the second round with Brunson’s corner throwing in the towel.
Du Plessis comprehensively defeated Whittaker by TKO to set up a championship bout against Adesanya, which was upended up by Strickland. Du Plessis eked out a controversial split decision over Strickland to win the belt in January 2024, and “Stillknocks” finally gets to meet Adesanya in the octagon.
Adesanya vs. Du Plessis Betting Pick
This is an extremely close fight to call. Adesanya has the edge in striking, while Du Plessis gets the nod in grappling. However, both can handle themselves wherever the fight goes. I can see Du Plessis aiming for a takedown if Adesanya gets the better of him in kickboxing.
But a motivated Adesanya is one of the best MMA fighters we’ve ever seen, and he’s my UFC betting pick for this middleweight title tilt. I believe it’ll go the distance, and Du Plessis will keep it close. But I’m going to add Israel Adesanya to my bet slip at offshore sportsbooks to win the belt for a third time.
Steve Erceg vs. Kai Kara-France Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Steve Erceg: -210
- Kai Kara France: +180
Steve Erceg (12-2) is a substantial favorite at offshore sportsbooks going into this fight against Kai Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC), who has lost his last two fights. Erceg is getting a bump as he gave champion Alexandre Pantoja all he could handle and more in a unanimous-decision loss in May 2024. It was a shock to hear that Erceg earned the title fight, but he made UFC fight makers look smart with their decision.
But Kara-France should get a little more love from the online sportsbooks, in my opinion. His split-decision loss to Amir Albazi was very close. Many MMA outlets thought Kara-France won the fight. He is also an all-action fighter, and the UFC likes to reward those types of MMA artists.
It’ll also be interesting to see which way the crowd leans for this fight. Erceg was born and raised in Perth and will likely have the fans on his side. However, Kara-France was born in Auckland, and he still lives and fights out of New Zealand. He’ll have his share of crowd support on August 17.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| STEVE ERCEG | FIGHTERS | KAI KARA-FRANCE |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | AGE | 31 |
| 12 | WINS | 24 |
| 2 | LOSSES | 11 (1 NO-CONTEST) |
| 5’8†| HEIGHT | 5’4†|
| 125 LBS | WEIGHT | 125 LBS |
| 68†| REACH | 69†|
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Erceg entered the UFC as a submission fighter, and he has made six opponents tap to get a victory. But his striking has improved, and he caught Pantoja with a few combinations in their fight. He’s still a young fighter by UFC terms, as this will be Erceg’s fifth fight in the promotion.
Kara-France has far more experience, as shown by his 36 fights to 14 for Erceg. He has a shocking amount of power for a flyweight at 125 pounds, and he is going to aim to keep this fight standing. He has attempted just 18 takedowns in 10 UFC fights. Erceg has attempted 19 takedowns in four fights.
Recent Performances and Form
Erceg’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Alexandre Pantoja via Unanimous Decision, May 4, 2024
- WIN vs. Matt Schnell via KO, March 2, 2024
- WIN vs. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision, November 11, 2023
- WIN vs. David Dvorak via Unanimous Decision, June 10, 2023
- WIN vs. Soichiro Hirai via Submission, February 11, 2023
Erceg submitted Soichiro Hirai in his final Eternal MMA fight in Australia before moving up to the UFC. He had to overcome a tough start against David Dvorak, but he used all of his skills to earn a unanimous decision on his UFC debut. Another unanimous-decision win over Alessandro Costa was pretty sloppy from both fighters, but Erceg rebounded with a great performance against Matt Schnell, winning by KO in the second round.
From there, Erceg took his big shot against Pantoja, and even though Pantoja deserved the win, “Astro Boy” definitely made him work for it with improved striking. It was even more impressive that Erceg got the title shot just two months after beating Schnell.
Kara-France’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Amir Albazi via Split Decision, June 3, 2023
- LOSS vs. Brandon Moreno via TKO, July 3, 2022
- WIN vs. Askar Askarov via Unanimous Decision, March 26, 2022
- WIN vs. Cody Garbrandt via TKO, December 11, 2021
- WIN vs. Rogerio Bontorin via KO, March 6, 2021
Fresh off a lost to Brandon Royval, Kara-France rebounded with a first-round knockout of Rogerio Bontorin, and then he starched former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt in a first-round TKO. Kara-France overcame a bad first round to earn a unanimous decision over Askar Askarov. That got Kara-France a shot at the interim flyweight title.
After a slow first round for both, Kara-France couldn’t hit the elusive Brandon Moreno, and in the third round, he got caught with a liver kick that led to more punches. But Kara-France was resilient once again, losing by split decision to Amir Albazi, but as was referenced before, most of the MMA world thought Kara-France won. So, on recent results, “Don’t Blink” hasn’t done that poorly. He lost to Royval, who has lost twice to Pantoja, and Moreno, a former undisputed and interim champ.
Erceg vs. Kara-France Betting Pick
This is no knock on Erceg, but I believe he was in the right place at the right time for a title shot against Pantoja, who has dispatched many of his foes. Combine that with Pantoja fighting in Brazil, and maybe overlooking Erceg a bit, which led to a tough fight.
But I think Kara-France has the edge the standing up by a solid margin. He just has to stay off the mat and avoid grappling with Erceg, although the Aussie hasn’t submitted anyone since joining the UFC. I’m going to recommend taking the value and betting on Kai Kara-France at online sportsbooks.
Where to Bet on UFC 305 Odds
You can bet on all these UFC 305 betting odds and more at BetOnline, one of our favorite UFC betting sites. BetOnline will be releasing more markets as we get closer to fight night. At BetOnline, you can receive up to $250 in free bets and 100 free spins for use at their online casino with your first deposit.
MMA fans get an extra bonus with the UFC Split-Decision Championship Refund, which gives your money back if you bet on the losing fighter in a title fight that goes to a split decision. That could be beneficial at UFC 305 for this huge middleweight title tilt. Don’t delay: get over to BetOnline today and start wagering on the Adesanya vs Du Plessis odds and the rest of the UFC 305 fight card!
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