UFC 307 odds feature two championship fights for the company’s next pay-per-view card, slated for October 5, 2024. This card is taking place at the Delta Center in Salt Lake City, Utah.
Who will leave “The Beehive State” with championship gold? Light-heavyweight champion Alex Pereira aims to defend his belt against Khalil Rountree Jr., while women’s bantamweight queen Rachael Pennington will take on Julianna Pena.
I’ll dig through the UFC 307 betting odds for this card, and give you my predictions for these title fights!
These UFC 307 odds are courtesy of BetOnline, and you can find them by heading to Sports > Martial Arts > UFC 307.
Alex Pereira vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. Odds, Prediction and Betting Pick
- Alex Pereira: -460
- Khalil Rountree Jr.: +360
Champion Alex Pereira (11-2) has been a sizable favorite since this match was announced, and -550 is the highest number we’ve seen at UFC betting sites so far. He has dropped to -460 as of fight week. That doesn’t mean that Khalil Rountree Jr. (13-5) should be overlooked at +360. He was +400 just a week ago.
The UFC 307 odds for this match reflect dominance from Pereira, who only joined the UFC in November 2021. However, in that time, he has won and lost the middleweight title in a rivalry with Israel Adesanya, and then Pereira won the light-heavyweight title.
There has even been talk of Pereira moving to heavyweight, although UFC president Dana White threw cold water on that.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| ALEX PEREIRA | FIGHTERS | KHALIL ROUNTREE JR. |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | AGE | 33 |
| 11 | WINS | 13 |
| 2 | LOSSES | 5 (1 NC) |
| 6’4†| HEIGHT | 6’1†|
| 205 LBS | WEIGHT | 205 LBS |
| 79†| REACH | 76.5†|
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | SOUTHPAW |
This should be a striker’s fight as Pereira is a world-class kickboxer, while Rountree Jr. comes from a Muay Thai background. Pereira is a bit more patient, although he’s not afraid to stand and trade with anyone.
Pereira is also more accurate, landing 64% of his strikes to 39% for Rountree Jr. Both men like to change levels with their strikes, working the head, body, and legs, although Pereira has more variety. He also might have the best leg kicks in the UFC.
Where it gets interesting is if either of them tries to go to the mat. It’s unlikely as Pereira has attempted 0.17 takedowns per 15 minutes, while Rountree Jr. doesn’t try any. However, it may be the American’s most likely path to victory.
Recent Performance and Form
Pereira’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Jiri Prochazka via TKO, June 20, 2024
- WIN vs. Jamahal Hill via KO, April 13, 2024
- WIN vs. Jiri Prochazka via TKO, November 11, 2023
- WIN vs. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision, July 29, 2023
- LOSS vs. Israel Adesanya via KO, April 8, 2023
After taking the middleweight belt from his kickboxing rival, Adesanya, “Poatan” lost it back to Adesanya via knockout. He then moved up to light heavyweight and eked out a tough split decision against former champion Jan Blachowicz.
Since then, Pereira has been on a roll. He won the vacated 205-pound belt against former champ Jiri Prochazka in November 2023, and then scored a first-round KO over another former champ in Jamahal Hill in April 2024.
On two weeks’ notice, Pereira and Prochazka saved UFC 300 as the Conor McGregor-Michael Chandler main event was scrapped. The rematch ended it as the first, a second-round TKO for Pereira. However, it was from a head kick this time, whereas Pereira stopped the Czech with elbows in the first match.
Rountree Jr.’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Anthony Smith via TKO, December 9, 2023
- WIN vs. Chris Daukaus via TKO, August 12, 2023
- WIN vs. Dustin Jacoby via Split Decision, October 29, 2022
- WIN vs. Karl Roberson via TKO, March 12, 2022
- WIN vs. Modestas Bukauskas via TKO, September 4, 2021
Rountree became the first fighter in UFC history to end a match with an oblique kick, cutting down Modestas Bukauskas. Then Rountree stopped Karl Roberson with a body kick, before surviving a split-decision over Dustin Jacoby in a fight most thought Jacoby won.
Rountree got back on form 10 months later with a first-round TKO win over Chris Daukaus. He then dominated Anthony Smith, before ending the fight in the third round. However, a shadow was cast over Rountree’s career as he was supposed to face Hill in June 2024. But he was found guilty of taking a banned substance, and suspended for two months. Now, Rountree finds himself in a title fight.
Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. Betting Pick
Pereira is a considerable favorite in this match for a reason. He has beaten three of the top four in the UFC light-heavyweight rankings, with the winner of Magomed Ankalev/Aleksandar Rakic at UFC 308 next in line. That doesn’t mean Pereira should look past Rountree Jr., who has enough power in his strikes to end the fight quickly. He has first-round finishes under his belt.
However, Pereira has taken some big shots in his career, and only a technical shot from Adesanya has put his lights out. Rountree Jr. is not as accurate, and if he wants to throw with volume, Pereira will catch him. Blachowicz showed that Pereira could be beaten if you’re a good wrestler, but Rountree isn’t a good wrestler.
Despite the lack of value, I’m going to recommend a bet on Alex Pereira at BetOnline as my UFC 307 betting prediction for this fight. And as an extra wager, the betting market isn’t out yet, but you should definitely bet on this fight ending in the first or second round. There are odds of -1200 on this fight not going the distance. If you don’t mind the lack of betting value, this is a strong bet to back.
Raquel Pennington vs. Julianna Pena Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Raquel Pennington: -170
- Julianna Pena: +145
The UFC 307 odds for this women’s bantamweight title match have been pretty steady since they were released. Champion Raquel Pennington (16-8) has been between -170 and -185, and it has settled on -170 during fight week. Former champion Julianna Pena (11-5) opened around +140, and was up to +155, and is now at +145.
These odds are much closer than the Pereira-Rountree betting odds, and for good reason. Pennington is riding a six-fight winning streak, including winning the vacated bantamweight belt in her last fight. Pena is 3-3 in her last six fights, but two of those losses came against Amanda Nunes (who she beat once), and Valentina Shevchenko. Both of those fighters are in the top five or six when it comes to female MMA athletes.
But the champion gets a deserved edge over Pena, who took the belt from Nunes. In turn, Nunes won the rematch and then retired, which gave Pennington a chance to wear the gold.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| RAQUEL PENNINGTON | FIGHTERS | JULIANNA PENA |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | AGE | 35 |
| 16 | WINS | 11 |
| 8 | LOSSES | 5 |
| 5’7†| HEIGHT | 5’7†|
| 135 LBS | WEIGHT | 135 LBS |
| 67.5†| REACH | 69†|
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Pennington is a very physical fighter who grinds her opponents down, as 11 of her 16 wins have come by decision. She’s strong in the clinch with knees, and Pennington has made four opponents tap. While she only has one career knockout, Pennington has enough power to keep opponents at bay.
Pena definitely has the edge in power, as Nunes found out in their first meeting. While Pena eventually submitted Nunes, it was her ability to stand and trade punches with Nunes that shocked everyone. Pena also has a decent ground game with five submission victory.
However, she hasn’t been active recently. Pena broke her ribs before a May 2023 trilogy fight with Nunes, and has been out since. Has she added anything new to her game? We’ll see in Salt Lake City.
Recent Performance and Form
Pennington’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Marya Bueno Silva via Unanimous Decision, January 20, 2024
- WIN vs. Ketlan Vieira via Split Decision, January 13, 2023
- WIN vs. Aspen Ladd via Unanimous Decision, April 9, 2022
- WIN vs. Macy Chaisson via Submission, December 18, 2021
- WIN vs. Pannie Kianzad via Unanimous Decision, September 18, 2021
Pennington took a unanimous decision over Pannie Kianzad back in September 2021, and then came back three months later to submit Macy Chaisson. She kept it rolling with another unanimous decision over Aspen Ladd in April 2022. But then Pennington had her hands full with a tough and controversial split-decision win over Ketlen Pennington in January 2023.
But Pennington, who lost a title fight against Nunes in May 2018, finally got the belt as she defeated Mayra Bueno Silva by unanimous decision in January 2024.
Pena’s Last Five Fights
- LOSS vs. Amanda Nunes via Unanimous Decision, July 30, 2022
- WIN vs. Amanda Nunes via Submission, December 11, 2021
- WIN vs. Sara McCann via Submission, January 24, 2021
- LOSS vs. Germaine de Randamie via Submission, October 4, 2020
- WIN vs. Nico Montano via Unanimous Decision, July 13, 2019
After a slow start, Pena earned a unanimous decision over Nico Montano way back in July 2019, but was caught in a submission by Germaine de Randamie in her next match, about 15 months later. Pena got back on top with a submission win over Sara McCann about four months later.
Then, everything changed when Pena stunned Nunes with her power, and then sunk in a rear-naked choke to take the belt in December 2011 as a massive underdog at online sportsbooks. However, Nunes is one of the all-time greats, and adjusted her game plan to dominate Pena for 25 minutes in September 2022.
Pennington vs. Pena Betting Pick
Pena has the power to end this fight, definitely more than Pennington, who wears down her opponents. The issue is, what is Pena’s conditioning like? We haven’t seen her in the octagon in over two years, and that is a lot of time for someone to be out of action, especially in the fight game.
For that reason, I’m taking Raquel Pennington to retain her belt at UFC 307 betting odds of -170. I just can’t trust that Pena can keep up if this fight goes longer than a round or two.
Of course, it’s the fight game and anything can happen. But I’m betting on Pennington’s fight IQ to take over and get stronger as the match wears on. As far as props go, look to this fight going all five rounds when the markets open at BetOnline.
Where to Bet on UFC 307 Odds?
To summarize, here are my UFC 307 betting predictions:
- Alex Pereira (-460)
- Raquel Pennington (-170)
If you’d like to parlay these odds for a little more value, you can get these fights together at -107!
And you can do that at BetOnline, where you can receive a welcome bonus of $250 in free bets when you sign up for an account. Those bets don’t come with a rollover requirement, either, which is excellent for first-time bettors. It also comes with 100 free spins for use in their online casino!
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