I’m making UFC 311 predictions for the UFC’s first pay-per-view of 2025, which will be held on January 18th at the Intuit Dome in Inglewood, California. There are two title fights anchoring the card, but will the belts switch hands?
I’ll give you my predictions, based on the UFC 311 betting odds, and I’ll also give you a parlay bet at the end of this article!
The UFC 311 odds for this card are courtesy of Bovada, and you can find them by going to Sports > All Sports > UFC/MMA > UFC 310: Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan
Islam Makhachev vs. Arman Tsarukyan Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Islam Makhachev: -330
- Arman Tsarukyan: +265
UFC lightweight champion Islam Makhachev (26-1) has dominated since joining the company, and he opened around -200 at UFC betting sites. However, he was -300 on December 16th, and that moved to -330 on December 18th. The 155-pound king is arguably the pound-for-pound #1 in all of MMA, and Makhachev gets a ton of respect from the bookies. He has a 76.7% implied probability of winning this match!
Rematch Reignites Rivalry.
[ #UFC311 | @IntuitDome ] pic.twitter.com/aXTZFfzAHd
— UFC (@ufc) December 12, 2024
That’s no disrespect to Arman Tsarukyan (22-3), who offers a lot of betting value in this spot at +265. He was +250 on December 16th, but is now +265 after opening around +180. The Armenian wrestler would also love to avenge a loss to Makhachev way back in April 2019, which was Tsarukyan’s debut in the UFC. Makhachev won that fight by unanimous decision, and he won quite handily. At +275, Tsarukyan is given an implied chance of 27.4% of winning.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| ISLAM MAKHACHEV | FIGHTERS | ARMAN TSARUKYAN |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | AGE | 28 |
| 26 | WINS | 22 |
| 1 | LOSSES | 3 |
| 5’10” | HEIGHT | 5’7″ |
| 155 LBS | WEIGHT | 155 LBS |
| 60″ | REACH | 72†|
| SOUTHPAW | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Makhachev, like close friend and trainer (and former UFC lightweight champion) Khabib Nurmogomedov, will smother his opponents with pressure and aim to take you down. He has improved his striking, as shown by his stunning head-kick TKO over Alexander Volkanovski in their October 2023 rematch.
But the Dagestani fighter leans on his wrestling to control fighters, and he’s an excellent submission artist, as Makhachev proved by submitting Brazilian jiu-jitsu ace Charles Oliveira to win the title in October 2022.
Tsarukyan can also handle his own on the mat, but he was outclassed there by Makhachev in their first fight, as Makhachev had four takedowns to one for Tsarukyan. That also tired Tsarukyan out badly, and he had nothing left by the third round. This is a five-round fight, so hopefully Tsarukyan has worked on his cardio. The Armenian has gone five rounds once, and he lost to Mateusz Gamrot in June 2022.
But Tsarukyan is a strong striker, if he isn’t that technical. His best bet for this lightweight-championship showdown is to keep this standing and try to pick at Makhachev at a distance. However, the champion can also fight that way.
Recent Performance and Form
Pantoja’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Dustin Poirier via Submission, June 1, 2024
- WIN vs. Alexander Volkanovski via KO, October 21, 2023
- WIN vs. Alexander Volkanovski via Unanimous Decision, February 12, 2023
- WIN vs. Charles Oliveira via Submission, October 22, 2022
- WIN vs. Bobby Green via TKO, February 26, 2022
Makhachev made short work of Bobby Green, who stepped in on short notice for an injured Beneil Dariush on February 26. Green succumbed to a takedown and ground-and-pound 3:23 into the first round. Makhachev then submitted Oliveira in the second round of their match for the vacated lightweight belt.
Next was Volkanovski, who was the featherweight champion, but he moved up in weight to challenge Makhachev, who eked out a tough unanimous decision in Volkanovski’s home country of Australia. However, the rematch ended 3:06 into the first round as Makhachev landed a head kick on Volkanovski. It should be noted that Volkanovski stepped in for an injured Oliveira on short notice.
Most recently, Makhachev dominated Dustin Poirier in June 2024, winning at least three rounds before submitting “Diamond” in the fifth round.
Asakura’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Charles Oliveira via Split Decision, April 13, 2024
- WIN vs. Beneil Dariush via KO, December 2, 2023
- WIN vs. Joaquim Silva via TKO, June 17, 2023
- WIN vs. Damir Ismagulov via Unanimous Decision, December 17, 2022
- LOSS vs. Mateusz Gamrot via Unanimous Decision, June 25, 2022
The loss to Gamrot was disappointing for “Ahalkalakets”, who won the first two rounds, but couldn’t keep up his pace. Tsarukyan bounced back with a unanimous decision over Damir Ismagulov in December 2022, taking his opponent down seven times to control him. The Armenian then scored a third-round KO win over ground-and-pound over Joaquim Silva, followed by a first-round right hook of Dariush in December 2023.
Tsarukyan then edged out Oliveira for a split-decision win in April 2024, but he was pushed to his limit as Oliveira had many submission attempts. It should also be noted that Tsarukyan hit a fan while walking to the octagon before the Oliveira fight, and was suspended from competition for six months.
Makhachev vs. Tsarukyan Betting Pick
Both Makhachev and Tsarukyan are much better fighters than they were in the first match. But as I mentioned, Makhachev controlled that fight beautifully and used his world-class wrestling against Tsarukyan, who is also a fantastic wrestler.
As good of a wrestler as Tsarukyan is better there. Tsarukyan might be more powerful, but Makhachev can also throw with the best of them. But the match will be won by fight IQ, and Makhachev is one of the smartest fighters in the business.
While the value is there with Tsarukyan, I’m leaning on Islam Makhachev to win in my UFC 311 predictions. To get a little more value, I would also recommend a submission win for Makhachev when those UFC 311 betting markets are released at online sportsbooks.
Merab Dvalishili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Merab Dvalishili: +220
- Umar Nurmagomedov: -270
Despite coming in as the UFC bantamweight champion, Merab Dvalishili (18-4) is a sizable underdog at +210 in these UFC 311 betting odds! Dvalishili opened around +140, but the lines are moving away from the champion, who was +210 on December 13, and +220 on December 18th. That gives the Russian an implied probability of 31.2% to win! It’s an interesting position for “The Machine”, who was favored to take the belt from Sean O’Malley at UFC 306 in dominant fashion.
Umar Nurmagomedov (18-0) is another in the long line of Dagestani fighters aiming to dominate the UFC, and he is Khabib’s cousin. He is also the older brother of Usman Nurmagomedov, who is the current Bellator lightweight champion. Umar Nurmagomedov opened around -170, and moved to -250 on December 13th. As of December 18th, UFC 311 odds have Nurmagomedov at -270 to win the 135-pound belt, with an implied chance of 73% of coming out on top!
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| MERAB DVALISHILI | FIGHTERS | UMAR NURMAGOMEDOV |
|---|---|---|
| 33 | AGE | 28 |
| 18 | WINS | 18 |
| 4 | LOSSES | 0 |
| 5’6″ | HEIGHT | 5’8″ |
| 135 LBS | WEIGHT | 135 LBS |
| 68″ | REACH | 69†|
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
Get ready for a grappling-heavy match between these two, and both men like to fight at a relentless pace that eventually wears down their opponents. However, Nurmagomedov is a much better striker, especially with his kicks, so that gives him an edge. But Dvalishili showed good movement to stay out of O’Malley’s striking range, so he’s going to be tough to pin down for Nurmagomedov.
On the mat, it’s a toss-up. Dvalishili landed six takedowns against O’Malley, and five against Henry Cejudo, who is a gold-medal Olympian in freestyle wrestling. Nurmagomedov hit five takedowns in his win over Cory Sandhagen, mixing in some solid striking as well.
Recent Performance and Form
Dvalishili’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Sean O’Malley via Unanimous Decision, September 14, 2024
- WIN vs. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision, February 17, 2024
- WIN vs. Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision, March 11, 2023
- WIN vs. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision, August 20, 2022
- WIN vs. Marlon Moraes via TKO, September 25, 2021
Dvalishili scored a TKO win over Marlon Moraes in September 2021, but that was after a back-and-forth first round where both fighters were hurt. He was then stuffed on all 16 of his takedown attempts by Jose Aldo, who is known for his takedown defense. But Dvalishili outstruck Aldo 135-59 to win by unanimous decision. Dvalishili had 11 takedowns in his win over Petr Yan in March 2023, also adding 202 strikes to 87 for Yan.
It was rinse and repeat for Dvalishili over his next two fights, as he first smothered Cejudo for three rounds in February 2024. Then came his shot at the title in September 2024, and O’Malley knew what was coming, but couldn’t stop Dvalishili from hitting six of 15 takedowns in another unanimous-decision win. 14 of the Russian fighter’s 18 wins have come by decision. It’s not pretty, but it’s effective.
Nurmagomedov’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Cory Sandhagen via Unanimous Decision, August 3, 2024
- WIN vs. Bekzat Almakhan via Unanimous Decision, March 2, 2024
- WIN vs. Raoni Barcelos via KO, January 14, 2023
- WIN vs. Nate Maness via Unanimous Decision, June 25, 2022
- WIN vs. Brian Kelleher via Submission, March 5, 2022
Nurmagomedov took advantage of Brian Kelleher’s willingness to pressure him by picking him off with strikes, and then he choked Kelleher out in the first round of their March 2022 tilt. The “Young Eagle” then dominated Nate Maness in June 2022, and the second round may have been a 10-8 round for Nurmagomedov as he utilized his wrestling. Next was a first-round KO of Roani Barcelos, and the end sequence began with a stunning kick to the body, apologizing for hurting his opponent after the fight.
Nurmagomedov put on another wrestling exhibition against Bekzat Almakhan, landing five takedowns and battering the UFC debutant on the mat in March 2024. He finally got a ranked opponent in Sandhagen in August 2024, and Nurmagomedov was fantastic.
After feeling Sandhagen out for the first round, Nurmagomedov took action and showed a versatile game. He landed five takedowns, but Nurmagomedov also proved he could strike with an excellent bantamweight in Sandhagen, outlanding him 96-71 at distance.
Merab Dvalishili vs. Umar Nurmagomedov Betting Pick
Dvalishili might get a takedown or two, but I can’t see him being able to keep Nurmagomedov down for long. Nurmagomedov will want to keep this fight standing as he is a much better striker than Dvalishili, but he won’t be afraid to go to the mat, and Nurmagomedov has won seven times by submission.
This might not be the prettiest fight on the card, but it is intriguing. I’m putting Umar Nurmagomedov in my UFC 311 predictions to add another belt to the Eagle MMA camp that Khabib Nurmagomedov runs out of Dagestan (he’ll also be in the corners of both Makhachev and Umar at UFC 311).
I just think Nurmagomedov has more tools to win than Dvalishili, and he can win the type of match that the champion wants to fight. I see this going to a decision, as well, when those additional UFC 311 betting markets come out at offshore sportsbooks.
Where to Bet on UFC 311 Odds?
To summarize, here are my UFC 311 predictions for these two championship bouts:
- Islam Makhachev (-330)
- Umar Nurmagomedov (-270)
You can parlay those two fights to get UFC 311 odds of -127 for these fights, and the betting value will increase when the additional UFC 311 betting markets are released!
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