UFC is back with UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland. The UFC Fight Night Orlando odds are direct from Bovada, but expect lines to move as we approach fight time, December 3rd at 7:00 PM ET. This 15 fight card is the largest of the year, starting early and promising fireworks. We’re focused on offering you the most accurate pick for each fight, delivering value bets and a parlay ticket useful at any of the top UFC betting sites.
UFC Fight Night Orlando Predictions
We boiled down our top picks to parlay, value bets, and upsets.
UFC Orlando Parlay picks
The Daukaus money line, the Nicolau money line and the Johnathan Pearce money line are each high quality bets with a high likelihood of paying out. Our runner up is the Under 1.5 rounds for Pavlovich vs Tuivasa.
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs Holland Value Bets
Emily Ducote and Phil Rowe are fantastic one off value bets. Both are easy wins with a high return, with or without a parlay.
UFC Fight Night Orlando Top Upsets
We see Barberena beating RDA, a 4:1 return on your wager for a fighter on the rise facing someone five years from his last winning streak.
Kevin Holland -164 vs Stephen Thompson +132
Both fighters are set to retire, but the UFC fans have them back for one more main event. Thompson is nearly a decade the senior of the 29 year old Holland.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Thompson Money Line | +132 |
| Over 3.5 Rounds | +105 |
Thompson has a history of neutralizing powerful strikers, and his decision win over Luque is a blueprint on outpointing Holland. Expect a long fight, with rangy kicks and a frustrated Kevin Holland.
Bryan Barberena +410 vs Rafael Dos Anjos -575
RDA is a long way from his best performances, and hasn’t fought for a title in four years and seven fights. Bam Ba is on a three fight winning streak and is 4-1 in his last five. At 39, we have to wonder if Dos Anjos’ contender days are behind him.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Barberena Money Line | +410 |
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -360 |
Barberena is a power puncher, and while we don’t see an early knockout, it could be enough to set RDA off his game. This is going to be a messy fight, and it should come down to a third round finish or narrow decision.
Matheus Nicolau -425 vs Matt Schnell +315
The only blemish on Nicolau’s UFC record is a fluke knockout loses to Dustin Ortiz. Schnell struggles against fighters he can’t out jiu-jitsu, and Matheus isn’t easy to submit.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Nicolau Money Line | -425 |
| Nicolau Knockout or Decision | -200 |
The UFC Fight Night Orlando odds for Nicolau double chance is surprisingly lucrative. His -200 offers a 1:2 return on your wager, over double his money line return. The money line is still one of our top parlays, but consider the knockout/decision prop as a value bet.
That @BamBamTuivasa power is absolutely ridiculous 🤯🤯🤯
Can he stop Pavlovich at #UFCOrlando this weekend?! pic.twitter.com/dYknuuqNmC
— UFC_AUSNZ (@UFC_AUSNZ) November 29, 2022
Sergei Pavlovich -230 vs Tai Tuivasa +176
Pavlovich is coming off the upset controversial win over Derrick Lewis, making four first round knockout wins in a row. Tuivasa lost to Gane in September, ending his five fight UFC knockout streak.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 1.5 Rounds | -230 |
| Pavlovich by TKO | -150 |
Tuivasa has an incredible chin, but he’s still been finished twice by TKO and once by submission in the UFC. The under is a killer bet, with these fighters expected to clash early and often. Pavlovich would rather go out and get it over within the first round, win or lose.
Eryk Anders +175 vs Kyle Daukaus -220
Anders is struggling to stay relevant in the UFC. We saw him winning the fight with Park, but his style plays right into the hands of Kyle Daukaus.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Daukaus Money Line | -220 |
Though he’s been inconsistent in the UFC, Daukaus is dangerous. If your submission work or wrestling isn’t up to par, he’ll run you over with little resistance. Anders doesn’t have the athleticism to get our UFC Fight Night Orlando prediction.
Jack Hermansson -185 vs Roman Dolidze +150
UFC Fight Night Orlando odds put Hermansson as the favorite in spite of going 3-3 in his last six. Dolidze is now 5-1 in the UFC, and Hermansson has seen a beating from top ten athletes.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Dolidze Money Line | +150 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | +120 |
Dolidze has three UFC level knockouts, and Hermansson has been finished three times in the UFC. After the Strickland fight earlier this year and the 164 strikes absorbed from Vettori, I question the long term durability of Hermansson.
Niko Price -140 vs Phil Rowe +115
Struggling at 4-2 over his last five bouts, Price is the favorite over Rowe if only because of his inconsistent grappling and a questionable chin.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Rowe Money Line | +115 |
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -185 |
| Rowe by TKO | +300 |
The Niko Price favoritism can only be because of fandom. He’s an aging fighter who’s beat aging fighters. Rowe is part of the new guard of knockout artists, and should put Niko away inside two rounds.
Angela Hill +105 vs Emily Ducote -125
Ducote is new to the UFC, but her beating of Jessica Penne is enough to make us bet on her against Hill.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Ducote Money Line | -125 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -435 |
We’re in for a long fight, with Ducote outboxing Hill every step of the way. The 37 year old Hill will struggle to outgrapple Ducote with her average .61 takedowns per bout.
Clay Guida+145 Scott Holtzman -175
The submission loss to Puelles was Guida’s fourth in seven fights. Holtzman is on a two fight knockout loss skid, making him 7-5 for the UFC.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Guida Money Line | +145 |
| FIght Goes the Distance, No | +142 |
Holtzman is too old to be coming back this quickly from back to back brutal TKOs. Guida hits hard, and it’s been enough to put away fighters like Joe Lauzon, Samy Schiavo. Coincidently, shortly after other knockout losses.
Marc Diakiese-315 vs Michael Johnson+245
Johnson’s 1-5 in his last six, while Marc has only lost to Alves and Fiziev in that same time. Our main concern is that Diakiese doesn’t have a notable submission game.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -425 |
| Diakiese by Submission or Decision | -150 |
Johnson has struggled time and again with decent wrestlers, but only if they can attack submissions. We should see a long fight that is more competitive than the odds are making it out to be. If you’re betting the double chance, you’re banking that Diakiese activates his sight unseen BJJ game.
Darren Elkins +350 vs Jonathan Pearce -500
After 12 years in the UFC, Elkins is back for his second fight of the year, and his third in one year’s time. The activity of this 38 year old featherweight is astonishing. Pearce is now 5-1 in the UFC, and this feels like a bit of sacrifice.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Pearce Money Line | |
| Fight goes the Distance, No | -174 |
| Pearce Sub or TKO | -125 |
Elkins was knocked out by Cub Swanson last year, and he’s seen a career average 3.16 strikes per minute. Pearce has a high rate of strikes and aggressive submission game. Fans of Elkins should play it safe with the “Fight Goes the Distance, No” prop bet.
Amanda Ribas -110 vsTracy Cortez -110
Cortez is undefeated in the UFC, winning five straight decisions for the promotion. Fresh off a loss to Chookagian, Ribas fell all the way to #15, and will struggle to stay in the contender rankings with a loss.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Cortez Money Line | -110 |
| Over 2.5 Rounds | -360 |
We’re encouraging the Over prop bet. Yes, Cortez has a slight advantage, but it may not be worth the risk. Odds are, we’re looking at a long fight, one where Cortez will play it especially safe. Her average absorbed strikes are 2.32 per minute, and her takedown defense 71%. We see no way for Ribas to achieve a finish.
Genaro Valdez +156 vs Natan Levy -197
These two fighters have a high frequency of strikes both landed and absorbed. Valdez has seen a KO win in DWCS and a KO loss to Matt Frevola, absorbing sixty strikes in three minutes! Their wrestling will either fizzle out, or force exhausting scrambles for position early.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Under 2.5 Rounds | -220 |
| Levy Money Line | -197 |
| Levy Submission in Round 2 | +700 |
Levy is the superior grappler, and this may play out in submission opportunities after the opening rounds. I see another slugfest, with Valdez on the receiving end of the majority of strikes. Levy’s loss to Rafa Garcia changed his gameplan to a more shoot boxing centered approach, and that will pay off Saturday.
Francis Marshall -165 vs Marcelo Rojo +135
“Pitbull” Rojo lost in back to back UFC Finishes, most recently a sub loss to Kyler Phillips in February. Marshall is coming off a DWCS domination win. He’s a quality wrestler and a high frequency striker.
Top Bets for
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Marshall Money Line | -165 |
| Over .5 Rounds | -190 |
Marshall looks for the takedown early and often. Rojo has some issues with grappling, offering his 50% takedown defense. We see Marshall winning, but draggin the bout out. We could see Rojo’s first UFC decision, and bettors should steer away from Marshall finishing props in spite of their value bet odds.
Istela Nunes +250 vs Yazmin Jauregui -325
Nunes is a former kickboxing champion with a 50-4 Muay Thai record. Her 0-2 UFC record is unfortunate, but it highlights her lack of wrestling capability. Luckily, Yazmin is a striker with no grappling wins or submissions on record.
Top Bets for Nunes vs Jauregui
| Top Bets | Odds |
|---|---|
| Over 1.5 Rounds | -400 |
| Istela Nunes Money Line | +250 |
Nunes has the more decorated kickboxing record and her performances in the UFC on the feet serve up better stats. Yazmin fought cans for the majority of her MMA career, and her inability to put away Lucindo (13-5) was telling. Nunes will have the advantage in experience and training environment which should lead to a decision win and Yazmin’s first loss.
UFC Fight Night Orlando Odds at Online Gambling Sites
There are between 18 and 22 betting markets for each fight on Bovada, but if you’re looking for other odds don’t be afraid to check out the sports book below. Each are available in your area, and they could show different odds on top bets, like RDA. Look to get UFC Fight Night Orlando odds and first time bettor bonuses at the safest online casinos.
