We have the UFC Noche odds for one of the biggest UFC cards to date! The organization booked the Sphere in Las Vegas for this one to create a unique atmosphere for UFC 306. But who will thrive on this special occasion?
UFC Noche features two title fights on the card, headlined by bantamweight champion Sean O’Malley taking on Merab Dvalishvili. Ahead of that, women’s flyweight champion Alexa Grasso and former champ Valentina Shevchenko will complete their trilogy of matches.
Read on for a full analysis and UFC 306 predictions for both championship fights!
The UFC 306 odds in this post are courtesy of BetOnline, where you can bet on the entire fight card. Just head to Sports > Martial Arts > UFC 306, and you’ll find all the markets for the fights on September 14.
Sean O’Malley vs. Merab Dvalishvili Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Sean O’Malley: -105
- Merab Dvalishvili: -115
The challenger, Merab Dvalishvili (17-4), actually started out as a much larger favorite before money started coming in on the champion, Sean O’Malley (18-1, 1 NC). It’s not a major shock that Dvalishvili has been the favorite in these Noche UFC odds, given that he is on a ten-fight winning streak and hasn’t lost since April 2018.
He’s more than a worth opponent for the champion and probably one of the best fights available right now. With Conor McGregor on the sidelines and Jon Jones fighting Stipe Miocic in November, O’Malley is probably the biggest name that could fight on this card.
UFC president Dana White loves the Irishman, and the two went to Tom Brady’s roast together.
O’Malley’s style is flashy, a perfect fit for his outgoing personality. Dvalishvili doesn’t have the prettiest style, but it’s definitely effective, and that’s why he’s the slight favorite here at MMA betting sites. Let’s dig a bit deeper to see why.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| SEAN O’MALLEY | FIGHTERS | MERAB DVALISHVILI |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | AGE | 33 |
| 18 | WINS | 17 |
| 1 (1 NC) | LOSSES | 4 |
| 5’11†| HEIGHT | 5’6†|
| 135 LBS | WEIGHT | 135 LBS |
| 72†| REACH | 68†|
| SWITCH | STANCE | ORTHODOX |
This is the classic “striker vs. wrestler” matchup. O’Malley is an extremely technical striker who won a contract on the second season of Dana White’s Contender Series.
While his style is flamboyant, it’s also deadly. O’Malley has been accurate on 62% of his strikes in the UFC. He’s very precise and doesn’t waste much energy. 12 of his 18 wins have come via knockout.
O’Malley has a four-inch reach advantage over Dvalishvili, a huge advantage for a striker of his caliber. He has to try and keep Dvalishvili on the outside at range, but his opponent is very tough and will try to walk through those shots.
O’Malley also has a 63% takedown defense rate. That’s going to be tested against Dvalishvili, who is already third all-time in the UFC with 79 takedowns landed.
Furthermore, Dvalishvili may also have the best cardio in the UFC and doesn’t stop coming at you. Again, the Georgian doesn’t have the most exciting style and grinds you down. 13 of his 17 wins have come via decision.
Recent Performances and Form
O’Malley’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision, March 9, 2024
- WIN vs. Aljamain Sterling via TKO, August 18, 2023
- WIN vs. Petr Yan via Split Decision, October 22, 2022
- NO-CONTEST vs. Pedro Munhoz via Accidental Eye Poke, July 2, 2022
- WIN vs. Raulian Paiva via TKO, December 11, 2021
O’Malley put on a show in a first-round knockout of Raulian Paiva in December 2021, but his next fight ended in the second round against Pedro Munhoz as O’Malley accidentally poked Munhoz in the eye.
“Suga” would then take on former bantamweight champion Petr Yan, and earn a controversial split decision in a fight many thought Yan had won. It won Sherdog’s “Robbery of the Year” in 2022.
O’Malley looked much better in October 2022, when he defeated Aljamain Sterling by second-round TKO to win the bantamweight title. His first title defense was against Marlon Vera, who handed O’Malley his first pro loss by knockout in August 2020. O’Malley swept the scorecards to avenge that loss in March 2024.
Dvalishvili’s Last Five Fights
- WIN vs. Henry Cejudo via Unanimous Decision, February 17, 2024
- WIN vs. Petr Yan via Unanimous Decision, March 11, 2023
- WIN vs. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision, August 20, 2022
- WIN vs. Marlon Moraes via TKO, September 25, 2021
- WIN vs. Cody Stamann via Unanimous Decision, May 1, 2021
Dvalishvili dominated Cody Stamann on the mat and standing up in May 2021, before fighting an incredible first round against Marlon Moraes. The Georgian survived a ton of blows from Moraes before taking his opponent down in the second round and ending the fight via ground-and-pound.
Dvalishvili then took on former featherweight king Jose Aldo in August 2020. Even though he failed on 16 takedown attempts, Dvalishvili landed 135 strikes to 59 for Aldo to earn the victory. Next was Yan in March 2023, and it was more of the same with Dvalishvili landed 202 strikes to 87 for Yan. The Georgian also landed 11 of 49 (wtf?) takedown attempts to pick up another victory.
Finally, Dvalishvili took on former two-division champion Henry Cejudo and didn’t deviate from the plan. He landed almost three times as many strikes as Cejudo, and took the 2008 Olympic freestyle wrestling gold medalist down five times, en route to another unanimous decision.
He will be looking to do the same against O’Malley, no doubt about that.
O’Malley vs. Dvalishvili Betting Pick
O’Malley would be the fun pick as his style is more aesthetically pleasing than Dvalishvili. However, the Georgian’s relentless approach has proven to work on some fantastic fighters.
Even though Aldo, Yan, and Cejudo weren’t in their primes, Dvalishvili still handled them relatively easily. It’s interesting that he suffered a cut in training for this fight, and White called him “next level stupid” for posting the cut. That will certainly light a fire under the Georgian.
O’Malley has never faced a wrestler like Dvalishvili, who also has a granite chin and is not going to stop coming at “Suga”. Dvalishvili has earned the nickname, “The Machine”, for a reason.
He grinds his opponents down and by the time we get to the championship rounds, O’Malley might not have much left in the tank. My UFC Noche betting prediction is backing Dvalishvili to win, most likely by unanimous decision. The odds are decent enough, making this one of the best bets for UFC Noche.
Alexa Grasso vs. Valentina Shevchenko Odds, Prediction, and Betting Pick
- Alexa Grasso: -115
- Valentina Shevchenko: -105
Alexa Grasso (16-3-1) and Valentina Shevchenko (23-4-1) have flipped positions in the UFC 306 odds for this fight, although the lines at online sportsbooks are still very close. These two fought twice in 2023, when Grasso took the belt from Shevchenko by submission in March. It was the first loss since September 2017 for “Bullet”.
The two then rematched in September, which ended in a split draw that could have gone either way. Grasso and Shevchenko were the coaches on The Ultimate Fighter 32 in June 2024, building up for their third clash. Let’s see what they bring to the table.
Tale of the Tape and Fighting Styles
| ALEXA GRASSO | FIGHTERS | VALENTINA SHEVCHENKO |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | AGE | 36 |
| 16 | WINS | 23 |
| 3 | LOSSES | 4 |
| 1 | Draws | 1 |
| 5’5†| HEIGHT | 5’5†|
| 125 LBS | WEIGHT | 125 LBS |
| 66†| REACH | 66.5†|
| ORTHODOX | STANCE | SOUTHPAW |
Grasso has a solid boxing foundation and throws a lot of low kicks at her opponents. She doesn’t push the pace a lot, although she did it more against Shevchenko compared previous fights.
The Kyrgyzstani fighter is known for her Muay Thai striking but actually landed four of six takedowns against Grasso in the first fight. However, that backfired as Grasso got her back and landed a fourth-round submission via face crank.
The second fight was closer as Grasso had the edge in strikes, but barely, while Shevchenko landed four takedowns to one for Grasso, who also had a knockdown. At this point, the two have met twice. There won’t be many secrets, so it’ll be interesting to see any new wrinkles they’ve been working on.
Recent Performances and Form
Grasso’s Last Five Fights
- DRAW vs. Valentina Shevchenko via Split Draw, September 16, 2023
- WIN vs. Valentina Shevchenko via Submission, March 4, 2023
- WIN vs. Viviane Araujo via Unanimous Decision, October 15, 2022
- WIN vs. Joanne Wood via Submission, March 25, 2022
- WIN vs. Maycee Barber via Unanimous Decision, February 13, 2021
Grasso had some issues with Maycee Barber’s wrestling as she was taken down three times, and held off a third-round rally from Barber to take a unanimous decision. She then survived a hot start from Joanne Wood, and then scrambled to her back to sink in a rear-naked choke in the first round.
Grasso stuffed eight of ten takedown attempts by Viviane Araujo, and landed more strikes to take a unanimous decision. She was then a huge UFC betting underdog against Shevchenko, who had never lost at flyweight before. Shevchenko had also never lost via submission, but Grasso ended that with a fourth-round face crank before their epic second match that ended in a split draw.
Shevchenko’s Last Five Fights
- DRAW vs. Alexa Grasso via Split Draw, September 16, 2023
- LOSS vs. Alexa Grasso via Submission, March 4, 2023
- WIN vs. Taila Santos via Split Decision, June 12, 2022
- WIN vs. Lauren Murphy via TKO, September 25, 2021
- WIN vs. Jessica Andrade via TKO, April 24, 2021
Shevchenko was rolling through the flyweight division, winning the belt from Joanna Jedrzejczyk in December 2018. By the time she got to Jessica Andrade in April 2021, she was a well-oiled machine and won that fight with elbows in the second round. In September 2021, Shevchenko did the same to Lauren Murphy, who did extremely well to even last until the fourth round.
But Shevchenko started to show some weakness against Taila Santos, who had the champ in trouble on the ground repeatedly. However, the star survived for a split-decision win before her two fights with Grasso.
Grasso vs. Shevchenko Betting Pick
This UFC Noche betting pick is harder to make than O’Malley and Dvalishvili. These two know each other so well at this point, it’s tough to choose between Grasso and Shevchenko. The two have surely made adjustments going into this fight.
However, I’m leaning towards Alexa Grasso for my Noche UFC prediction. All of the greats fall at some point, and Shevchenko ruled the flyweight division for a very long time. She’s going to put up a fight, but I believe Grasso has enough tools to grind out a decision victory and put this fantastic trilogy to bed, once and for all.
Where to Bet on UFC Noche Odds?
After analyzing the two main matchups, these are the UFC 306 odds I like.
- Merab Dvalishvili (-115)
- Alexa Grasso (-115)
You can find these markets (and more to come) at BetOnline, where you’ll receive their “No Strings” welcome offer. With the promo code FREE250, you’ll receive $250 in Free Bets, and 100 Free Spins for use in their online casino. Also, with the free bets, there is no rollover requirement, which you rarely see in online betting.
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