Harris vs. Trump Debate Odds and Predictions: Who Will Win?

ABC Debate Trump vs. Harris Winner Analysis and Prediction

The presidential debate couldn’t have happened between more different candidates. Donald Trump is an impulsive speaker who often ignores policies. Kamala Harris is a former prosecutor who speaks well and is able to grapple with policy details.

That doesn’t mean the debate is a sure win for Harris. Trump is a great showman. His leap on Biden’s misspeak early in the first debate is a great example of how Trump could leverage his quick wit. After Biden said he “beat Medicare” instead of “Big Pharma,” Trump said Biden “beat it [Medicare] to death.”

Trump knows how to use every mistake in his advantage, which gives him a shot at winning.

🚨Great debate moment🚨
Biden: "We finally beat Medicare."
Trump: "He's right, he did beat Medicare. He beat it to death." pic.twitter.com/oCFGijp6nz

— Tyler O'Neil (@Tyler2ONeil) June 28, 2024

Even so, Harris is in a better debate position than Biden was. She doesn’t struggle with age-related decline in her ability to speak. She’s used to focusing on key elements of an opponent’s argument from her prosecutorial career.

She should be prepared better than Biden and is the favorite to win. For this market, Harris is the better choice for the debate than Trump. The odds are on the short side, though, so be careful, -250 is around the minimum I’d accept, anything lower than that is not worth it.

First Mentioned States Analysis and Prediction

The ABC debate is being held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. It’s not only a swing state, but also a crucial one. Historically, it was one of the states Democrats would always win to keep their hold on a few vital electoral college votes.

When it was one of the states Trump took in 2016, he broke the Blue Wall that often boosted Democrats to the White House.

So far, bettors think that the first state mentioned by the candidates will be the state the debate is taking place in. However, there are a few other states the candidates could mention first.

If Trump speaks first in the debate, he could launch an attack on California. The state is a stand-in for every progressive policy Republicans criticize. But if Harris leads, she could go into Trump’s wealthy New York background or bring up one of the lawsuits Trump faced in the state.

The best bet is to bet on New York being mentioned first. There are safer choices, but they come with lower possible returns. The +700 available for New York offer tremendous value and I’m more than happy to go for it.

Debate Handshake Odds and Best Bet

The handshake at the start of a presidential debate is an important conciliatory moment in a campaign. It’s a snapshot of the civility that supports political society, even when the attack ads are out in bulk.

Trump began skipping the pre-debate handshake in his second debate against Hillary Clinton in 2016. However, they still shook hands after the debate ended. After the third debate, neither candidate shook hands before or after the event.

Trump and Biden didn’t shake hands at their 2020 or 2024 debates, so it may look like the tradition is dead. However, Harris is a new candidate for Trump. It’s possible he’ll make a show of civility to appease voters who are put off by his hostility.

Harris could also take the initiative and force a handshake. The beginning of her campaign has been based on “vibes”, so being the candidate who reintroduced the handshake would play in her favor.

The Harris campaign is heavy on vibes. So far, that seems to be working.

My take: pic.twitter.com/hQiQbQMY21

— Fareed Zakaria (@FareedZakaria) August 11, 2024

The best bet is to wager on is a handshake happening. Both candidates could benefit from such a gesture, so I like the Trump vs. Harris debate odds for this prop bet.