2023 Vuelta a Espana Odds, Predictions and Race Winner

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Rick Rockwell
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Vuelta A Espana

On Saturday, August 26th, the third and final Grand Tour of the year gets underway as the 78th edition of the Vuelta a Espana kicks off in Barcelona, Spain.

Unlike recent years, this installment of the Vuelta is going to be thrilling. We have the two other 2023 Grand Tour winners participating in this year’s Vuelta and, the best part, they’re both on the same team.

Team Jumbo-Visma is sending both of their leaders to Spain as Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard look to win this event. Roglic won the 2023 Giro d’Italia in May after crushing the field following the departure of the 2022 Vuelta a Espana winner, Remco Evenepoel.

In July, Vingegaard won the 2023 Tour de France after an epic battle with Tadej Pogacar for the third straight year. This was Vingegaard’s second consecutive Tour de France title.

Now, both Jumbo-Visma teammates are the betting favorites to win the 2023 Vuelta a Espana, according to cycling betting sites. Let’s take a look at the full peloton and see who we think will win this year’s Maillot Rojo (red jersey), which is given to the Vuelta winner.  

2023 Vuelta a Espana Odds

The following odds are courtesy of Bovada:

CyclistOddsCyclistOdds
Jonas Vingegaard+120Primoz Roglic+300
Remco Evenepoel+400Juan Ayuso+600
Geraint Thomas+1400Enric Mas Nicolau+1800
Joao Almeida+2500Richard Carapaz+4000
Alexander Vlasov+5000

2023 Vuelta a Espana Betting Favorites

The following cyclists are considered the odds-on favorites to win the 2023 Vuelta a Espana, according to sports betting sites:

Jonas Vingegaard (+120)

The two-time Tour de France winner has ascended to the top of the sport. He’s considered the top cyclist in the peloton and his current season backs up those claims.

As mentioned, Vingegaard won the 2023 Tour de France last month. However, that wasn’t his only victory of the season. Prior to the TDF, Vingegaard won the Criterium du Dauphine, which is one of the tune-up events for the Tour de France.

He also won the Tour of Basque Country in April and the O Gran Camino in February. In between those two races, Vingegaard had a third-place finish at Paris-Nice.

For Vingegaard, he made his Grand Tour debut in the 2020 Vuelta a Espana where he helped teammate Roglic to a victory. His other Grand Tour races were three consecutive appearances in the Tour de France, where he won the last two years and finished second in 2021.

Will Vingegaard help Roglic win another Vuelta or will he prove his dominance with a victory in Spain?

Primoz Roglic (+300)

Roglic is looking for his fourth Vuelta a Espana crown. He won this Grand Tour race from 2019-2021, before crashing out in 2022, which allowed Evenepoel to easily take the red jersey.

Now, Roglic is looking to capture that fourth Spanish title, but he will have to beat out his teammate and Evenepoel to do so.

For Roglic, this will be his 13th Grand Tour appearance. He has three Vuelta titles, one Giro title, and a runner up in the 2020 Tour de France. He also has six podium finishes in those 13 appearances.

Roglic won a Vuelta a Espana tune-up race last week, where he took the victory at the Vuelta a Burgos. He also won the Volta a Catalunya and Tirreno-Adriatico races in March.

Roglic has won every race that he’s entered this year. Will he continue his undefeated streak by taking the Vuelta title for a fourth time?

Remco Evenepoel (+400)

As mentioned, Soudal-Quick Step’s leader, Evenepoel, was the 2022 Vuelta a Espana winner after his top competition in Roglic pulled out of the race. Evenepoel would go on to win the Grand Tour by more than two minutes over the second-place rider, Enric Mas.

This will be his fourth Grand Tour appearance as he also has two DNFs in the Giro d’Italia over the last two seasons. In May, Evenepoel had to pull out due to Covid.

Prior to his Giro disappointment, Evenepoel won at Liege-Bastogne-Liege in April, finished second to Roglic at the Volta a Catlunya in March, won the UAE Tour in February, and was seventh at a warmup race in January,

Since the Giro, the 23-year-old Belgian finished third at the Tour de Suisse, won the National Belgian Road Race in June, finished first in the Donostia San Sebastian Klasikoa in July, and won the World Championship Time Trial two weeks ago.

He comes into this Grand Tour in great form, but does he have the team and the legs to compete with the Team Jumbo-Visma duo of Roglic and Vingegaard?

The Best Vuelta a Espana Betting Value: Geraint Thomas (+1400)

Let me be he first to say that I fully dismissed Geraint Thomas’ chances at the Giro d’Italia. Yet, the elder statesman of the peloton proved me wrong and the rest of his critics. Thomas would finish second to Roglic at the 2023 Giro.

He had a poor showing at the Tour de Pologne a few weeks ago, but many pundits claim that Thomas was just keeping his legs warm for the Vuelta. The 37-year-old Brit would bounce back for a 10th place finish at the World Championships Individual Time Trial (ITT).

Thomas is a big-race cyclist who shows up when it matters the most: Grand Tours and the Worlds. Although the rest of his 2023 season is forgettable, I like Thomas to be a contender in this year’s Vuelta.

Now, I don’t expect the 2018 Tour de France winner to defeat the boys from Jumbo-Visma. But I wouldn’t be surprised if he was contending for a podium finish in the final week of the race.

Thomas will be the captain of INEOS Grenadiers, despite the inclusion of Egan Bernal. Thomas is the better time trialist and Bernal has yet to fully recover from his back issues. The team time trial and ITT in this year’s Vuelta will definitely help Thomas be in the Top 5 for most of this Grand Tour.

The Best Vuelta a Espana Longshot: Joao Almeida (+2500)

Juan Ayuso should be the leader for UAE Team Emirates, but he is still finding his form after a scary leg injury cost him the early part of 2023. So, it’s not far-fetched to think that if Ayuso struggles in the Vuelta, his teammate Joao Almeida could pick up the reigns as the team’s leader.

This is Almeida’s sixth Grand Tour appearance and just his second time in the Vuelta. He finished fifth in last year’s race. His other four Grand Tour stars all came in the Giro d’Italia. Almeida finished third in the 2023 Giro and has three Top 6 results in that Italian Grand Tour.

In early August, Almeida finished second at the Tour de Pologne and then came back with a 23rd at the World Championships Time Trial. He also had a third-place finish in the Giro’s ITT behind Roglic and Geraint Thomas.

Almeida is a talented climber, but it’s important to point out that he does have some time trial skills. With two time trial stages in the 2023 Vuelta, they could could make or break Almeida’s efforts to get on the podium.

Who Wins The 2023 Vuelta a Espana?

I’ve made no intentions to hide my fandom of Team Jumbo-Visma. From Roglic to Wout van Aert and Vingegaard to Sepp Kuss, I love this team. I see no reason to think that Jumbo-Visma won’t win this race and sweep all three Grand Tours this year, which is an incredible feat.

The only question is who will win between Roglic and Vingegaard. If you watched the Tour de France in July, you would’ve seen that Vingegaard is on another level. However, we have to wonder how much that Grand Tour took out of him. And, if he has had enough time to recover.

As much as I like Roglic, I believe Vingegaard will win the 2023 Vuelta a Espana. He’s the better climber between the two and the better time trialist. I guarantee that Jumbo-Visma will win both time trials and dominate in the mountains as well.

Evenepoel will do all he can to keep pace with the boys in black and yellow, but he will fall short. Take Vingegaard to dominate this race after he puts his stamp on things in Stage 10’s individual time trial. From there, he will dominate in the high mountains in Weeks two and three of the Vuelta.

The Bet
Jonas Vingegaard
+120
BET NOW!

2023 Vuelta a Espana Prop Bets

The following Bovada prop bet requires the exact finishing order:

BETOdds
1st. Jonas Vingegaard 2nd. Primoz Roglic+350
1st. Jonas Vingegaard 2nd. Remco Evenepoel+400
1st. Jonas Vingegaard 2nd. Juan Ayuso+500
Race Forecast – 1st. Primoz Roglic 2nd. Jonas Vingegaard+650
Race Forecast – 1st. Remco Evenepoel 2nd. Jonas Vingegaard+900
Race Forecast – 1st. Primoz Roglic 2nd. Remco Evenepoel+1400

As mentioned above, I believe that Vingegaard will win the race. Now, the focus turns to who will finish second. I don’t believe Jumbo-Visma will get first and second at the Vuelta because Roglic will end up being a supporter for Vingegaard in the mountains.

With that said, I like Evenepoel to finish second. He’s the second best time trialist of the race favorites and he should be strong enough to beat out guys like Ayuso and Thomas for the runner-up position.

The Bet
1st. Vingegaard 2nd. Evenepoel
+400
BET NOW!

Sources

About the Author
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Rick Rockwell
Sports and Casino Writer
Rick has been a professional writer for over 14 years with an extensive resume spanning projects and clients from around the world. But, his passions have always been sports and sports betting. Whether it’s being a credentialed media member to major sporting events, climbing into a racecar or a pro wrestling ring, Rick’s sports and sports betting knowledge, passion and versatility is on display with each article he writes for TSG.
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