2024 World Chess Championship Betting Odds and Predictions

• Gukesh Dommaraju (-500)
• Ding Liren (+300)

• The World Chess Championship 2024 features 14 rounds.
• The event is scheduled from November 20, 2024, to December 15, 2024.
• The first player to score 7.5 points or more becomes the World Chess Champion for 2024.
• Players cannot draw before Black’s 40th move.
• If the players are tied following the 14 rounds, the winner will be decided in a tiebreak (four rapid games with 25 minutes per side; first to 2 ½ points or more wins).

Time Control:

• • 120 minutes per player for the first 40 moves.
  • 60 minutes per player for the following 20 moves.
  • 15 minutes per player for the remainder of the game.

Classical Games:

• • Ding 1 – Gukesh 0 (January 2023)
  • Ding 1 – Gukesh 0 (January 2024)

Rapid/Exhibition Games:

• • Gukesh 1 – Ding 0 (February 2024)

Gukesh Dommaraju (-500) – Can the Rising Star Stay Hot?

Then-17-year-old Gukesh became the youngest FIDE Candidates champion in tournament history. Additionally, the teenager is now only the second Indian player to qualify for the World Chess Championship. Now, 18 as of May, Gukesh is aiming to create more history as the first world champion from India since five-time winner Viswanathan Anand in 2013.

He was in unbelievable form to upset favorites Fabiano Caruana, Ian Nepomniachtchi, and Hikaru Nakamura. Caruana entered as the tournament favorite, but failed to win on the final day to force a tiebreak with Gukesh. The 18-year-old won five matches and drew eight en route to the 2024 World Chess Championship.

Gukesh had just an 8.9% implied probability of winning the FIDE Candidates 2024. Will this momentum carry over to the World Chess Championship?

The Phenomenal Rise of Gukesh D ✨ pic.twitter.com/qVQAPkCcaE

— The Khel India (@TheKhelIndia) November 12, 2024

Fortunately for this emerging star, he remains in hot form with the big day approaching in November. Gukesh hasn’t shown any signs of nerves or being overwhelmed by the new-found success. He is locked in and appears showing no letdown after capturing the Candidates.

On paper, Gukesh is coming off a mediocre performance in Serbia at the 2024 European Chess Club Cup. He captured his first two games, but then lost and drew in four consecutive matches.

Am I concerned? No, because Gukesh is not going to reveal his cards so close to the World Chess Championship. Gukesh ultimately left the tournament losing 11 rating points. However, I wouldn’t use this as a determining factor in his form against Ding.

Prior to the European Chess Club Cub, Guhesh won 11 of his previous 12 matches. At the 45th Olympiad, Gukesh took a draw against Richard Rapport, but otherwise, all wins! The talented grandmaster helped lead India to the men’s open competition title by scoring nine of ten points.

Gukesh has never beaten Ding in a classical format before. However, with his unwavering confidence, this could be the time for Gukesh to upend the defending champion!

Ding Liren (+300) – Will He Round into Form?

Ding is the defending FIDE World Chess Champion after beating Ian Nepomniachtchi in a tiebreak in the previous edition of the tournament. It was an evenly played match, with Ding exploiting a hole in the fourth rapid tiebreak to win the title.

🇨🇳 World Champion Ding Liren will play the 2024 FIDE World Championship with a rating of 2728! #GukeshDing #DingGukesh pic.twitter.com/jT7UgndBka

— Chess.com – India (@chesscom_in) November 14, 2024

I remind you that Magnus Carlsen conceded his championship, which opened the door for a new FIDE World Champion. Ding seized the moment to oust the Russian in a nail-biter in Kazakhstan. However, the native of Wenzhou, China, hasn’t been in his best form this year.

For the last two years, Ding’s rating has slowly fallen backward. At the 2022 Candidates, Ding had a player rating of 2,808. Today, he is down to 2,728 after a tough year at the chess table.

In the GRENKE Chess Playoffs, Ding came up short in a tournament that Carlsen prevailed in. The Chinese grandmaster lost twice to 19-year-old Vincent Keymer, and also registered defeats against Daniel Friedman and Richard Rapport.

While Ding has stabilized slightly, he still doesn’t have that killer instinct that many of us are accustomed to with the reigning champion. In moments you expect Ding to rise up, he has faltered and encountered mental blocks. Astonishingly, Ding hasn’t won in 20 matches since the 12th Norway Chess Armageddon.

Ding hasn’t played in a match since the 45th Olympiad. He has been using the past few months to mentally prepare himself for the challenge ahead against Gukesh at the 2024 World Chess Championship.

A recent draw against Caruana might be his best result recently. However, drawing has become a common theme for Ding, who has a draw in 14 of his previous 20 matches, and five losses. Will the time off give Ding the edge he needs to regain top form, He had opportunities to spring into form in Norway, the Sinquefield, and the Olympiad, but folded.

World Champion 🇨🇳 Ding Liren, in a recent interview with FIDE, about his overall well-being ahead of the match: "My current state is neither exceptionally good nor bad as I felt in the one and a half years. I have definitely moved past that sort of deepest or worst moments in the… pic.twitter.com/7ZvwenEp3D

— International Chess Federation (@FIDE_chess) November 14, 2024

That being said, the odds for the World Chess Championship 2024 are getting a little too inflated in favor of Gukesh. He has a massive experience edge on Gukesh, and I believe oddsmakers are beginning to undervalue him in this match.