Arizona Diamondbacks @ Milwaukee Brewers - September 19, 2024

As we gear up for Thursday’s matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field, there’s plenty to unpack. The Diamondbacks are sending Brandon Pfaadt to the mound, who has had a somewhat tumultuous season with a record of 9-9 and an ERA of 4.8. On the other side, Tobias Myers takes the ball for the Brewers, boasting a solid 3.1 ERA and an 8-5 record.

At first glance, one might think that Pfaadt’s higher ERA could spell trouble for Arizona; however, let’s dive deeper into both teams’ performances leading up to this game. The Diamondbacks have been on a bit of a rollercoaster lately—they’ve won their last game against the Rockies in convincing fashion (9-4), but overall they hold a disheartening 1-5 against the spread in their last six games. Their recent offensive output is impressive, averaging about 5.5 runs per game with a batting average of .258—both figures suggest they can generate offense when it matters most.

Conversely, Milwaukee comes off a tightly contested victory over Philadelphia (2-1) and has shown more consistency recently, winning five out of their last seven games. With an average of just under 4.9 runs per game and a slightly lower batting average at .243 compared to Arizona’s lineup, one could argue that while Milwaukee may not score as much overall, they have managed to capitalize on scoring opportunities effectively.

When we consider pitching matchups specifically—Myers’ ability to limit runs will be crucial here. His strikeout rate sits at approximately 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings which indicates he can handle pressure situations well by generating swings-and-misses from opposing batters.

Now let’s address some betting angles: oddsmakers opened Arizona as slight favorites (-103). However, given Milwaukee’s current form combined with Myers’ strong performance metrics relative to Pfaadt’s struggles this season, I believe backing the Brewers makes sense here.

From an Over/Under perspective set at eight runs for this contest—considering both teams’ recent trends—the total seems likely to go UNDER based on my analysis of each team’s run production capabilities paired with effective pitching performances expected from Myers tonight.

In summary: I predict that the Milwaukee Brewers will take home the win against the Diamondbacks in what should be another low-scoring affair given both teams’ recent trends and statistical profiles heading into this matchup. If you’re looking for value plays tonight—Brewers moneyline could be appealing while also considering taking the UNDER on total runs scored as well!