Atlanta Hawks @ Boston Celtics - January 18, 2025

Saturday night is shaping up to be an electric showdown at TD Garden as the Boston Celtics take on the Atlanta Hawks. With the oddsmakers opening the Celtics as hefty 12-point favorites, it’s clear they expect a decisive victory. But let’s break this down with my years of betting experience and a sprinkle of superstition—gotta rub that lucky rabbit’s foot before every big game!

Boston enters this matchup riding high after their recent 121-94 win against the Magic, covering that 14.5-point spread like it was nothing. They’re averaging about 117.5 points per game, shooting 45.8% from the field and hitting almost 36.2% from behind the arc. Their offensive rhythm is impressive, but let’s not forget about those pesky turnovers—averaging nearly 11.9 a game could spell trouble if they’re not careful.

On the flip side, we have Atlanta, who recently secured a solid win against Chicago with a score of 110-94. The Hawks are scoring at nearly the same clip as Boston at around 117.2 points per game but boast a slightly better field goal percentage at about 46.4%. Their assists per game are noticeably higher too, which shows they move the ball well—but they also cough up the rock more often than Boston, with an average of almost 15.9 turnovers.

Defensively, both teams are pretty evenly matched on paper when it comes to rebounds; however, Atlanta’s troubles come from fouls committed—over 18 per game compared to Boston’s more disciplined approach with just over 16 fouls on average.

Looking deeper into team trends reveals some interesting tidbits: Atlanta has struggled covering spreads lately (just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games), particularly on the road where they’re only covering one out of six! Meanwhile, despite having a solid record (29-12 SU), Boston has had its share of issues too—going just 2-4 ATS in their last six.

So what do I see happening? I fully expect Boston to emerge victorious tonight and cover that hefty spread—they’re simply playing at another level right now and won’t want to let up against an inconsistent Hawks squad struggling on defense lately.

As for totals? Given both teams’ recent performances with five of Boston’s last seven games going UNDER and Atlanta trending similarly, I’m leaning towards this one finishing under that posted total of 234.5 points.

To sum it all up: Celtics get the W and cover comfortably while keeping this one low-scoring enough to stay under that total line! Keep your fingers crossed—and don’t forget your lucky charm!