Atlanta Hawks @ New York Knicks - January 20, 2025

As the Atlanta Hawks prepare to take on the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden, there’s a palpable sense of anticipation. The Hawks come into this matchup riding a three-game winning streak, and they’ll be looking to extend that against a Knicks team that has stumbled in its most recent outing.

Oddsmakers have set the Knicks as -8.5-point favorites, which reflects their solid overall record of 27-16. However, it’s essential to look deeper than just win-loss records when predicting outcomes. The Knicks’ recent performance shows some cracks; they are just 3-6 against the spread (ATS) in their last nine games and struggled in their last match against the Timberwolves, failing to cover as -3-point favorites. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s recent victory over Boston highlighted their resilience as they managed to cover a +9.5-point spread.

When we analyze offensive stats, both teams average around 117 points per game—New York at 117 and Atlanta slightly ahead at 117.2—but it’s interesting to note how each team gets there. The Knicks boast an impressive shooting percentage of approximately 49.5%, while the Hawks lag behind at about 46.4%. This shooting disparity could prove crucial in what is expected to be a tightly contested game.

Defensively, both teams exhibit contrasting styles that can affect scoring totals significantly. The Knicks allow about 43 rebounds per game but manage only around 7.6 steals while committing over 17 fouls on average—a stat that suggests potential free throw opportunities for Atlanta if they can exploit mismatches effectively.

Conversely, while the Hawks grab more rebounds (45.5), they also give up more turnovers (15.85) compared to New York’s figure of approximately 13 turnovers per game. This edge in ball security could play a pivotal role in determining possession and ultimately scoring efficiency during critical moments of the game.

Given these statistics and trends, I predict that the Knicks will emerge victorious tonight against the Hawks—covering that -8.5 spread along the way despite their inconsistency lately ATS-wise. Historically speaking, home-court advantage at Madison Square Garden tends to amplify performances from teams like New York who thrive on crowd energy.

As for total points scored in this matchup? Given both teams’ recent tendency toward lower-scoring affairs—the total opened at 221.5—I expect this one will trend under once again based on current form and defensive capabilities showcased by both sides recently.

In summary: expect a competitive battle where New York leverages its home advantage for a win while covering the spread; however, don’t anticipate fireworks offensively with an UNDER prediction looming large given current trends from both squads leading into Monday night’s showdown!