Atlanta Braves @ Tampa Bay Rays - April 12, 2025

As I prepare for the matchup between the Atlanta Braves and the Tampa Bay Rays at George M. Steinbrenner Field, I can’t help but dive into the numbers that define this contest. The Braves are struggling with a record of 3-10, while the Rays sit at a more respectable 6-7. However, recent trends suggest that this game could be a turning point for Atlanta.

On the mound, we have AJ Smith-Shawver for the Braves, who comes in with a troubling 0-2 record and an ERA of 4.4. While his strikeout rate is decent at about 8.6 per nine innings, he has struggled to keep runs off the board consistently. In contrast, Drew Rasmussen from Tampa Bay boasts an impressive win-loss record of 1-0 along with a solid ERA of just 3.2 and an even better strikeout rate of around 9.3 per nine innings.

The oddsmakers have opened with Tampa Bay as -141 favorites against Atlanta, which reflects their recent success over them—having won their last encounter by a score of 6-3 as -140 favorites. But let’s not forget that statistics often tell a different story than what we might expect based on surface-level observations.

When analyzing offensive performance, it becomes clear why both teams find themselves in their current predicaments. The Rays average approximately 3.8 runs per game with an on-base percentage (OBP) of around 70%. Their batting average sits at .254—certainly not stellar but indicative of some potential when they get going offensively.

Conversely, the Braves have been struggling significantly at the plate; they average only about 3 runs per game and possess a batting average hovering around .205—far below league standards. With just over two RBIs per game (2.8), it’s evident they’re having difficulty capitalizing on scoring opportunities.

Despite these stats favoring Tampa Bay overall, I see room for optimism regarding Atlanta’s chances tonight based on their need to turn things around after losing five consecutive games on the road and being just one win away from breaking out of this slump.

In terms of total runs scored in games involving both teams lately, it’s worth noting that Tampa has seen totals go under in many instances (17 out of their last 24). However, given how desperate Atlanta is for a victory—and considering both offenses’ potential to break out—I predict we’ll see more than enough scoring to push us over tonight’s set total line.

All things considered: my prediction leans toward an upset victory for Atlanta against Tampa Bay tonight—a much-needed boost for them—and I foresee that we will exceed the expected total runs as well!