Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons - January 5, 2025

As we gear up for the clash between the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons at Mercedes-Benz Stadium this Sunday, there are some intriguing trends and numbers that deserve our attention.

The oddsmakers have set the Falcons as -7.5-point favorites, reflecting their higher performance metrics this season compared to the struggling Panthers. However, before you place your bets, let’s delve into what the stats tell us about both teams.

Starting with Atlanta, they’ve averaged 22.4 points per game this season while showing a balanced offensive attack with 257.3 passing yards (a solid completion percentage of 66.1%) and an impressive 121.6 rushing yards per game. They rank well in terms of yards per attempt at 7.6, suggesting that they can stretch defenses effectively when needed.

However, recent form is concerning; they come into this matchup having lost five out of their last seven games outright (SU) and have struggled to cover spreads recently with a dismal record of just 1-5-1 against the spread (ATS) in those same contests. In fact, they’ve been particularly ineffective at home lately.

On the other side of the ball, we have Carolina—a team trying to find its footing after finishing last week with a disastrous loss against Tampa Bay where they fell short by a whopping scoreline of 48-14. Their scoring average sits significantly lower than Atlanta’s at around 18.6 points per game which isn’t encouraging when you factor in their struggles: they’re just 1-5 SU in their last six outings.

Despite these challenges though, there’s a glimmer of hope for Carolina backers; over their last eight games they’ve posted an impressive ATS record of 6-2—suggesting they’re more competitive than some might believe given their overall record (4-12 SU). Plus, five out of their last six games went OVER—pointing towards potential explosiveness on offense even if it hasn’t always translated into wins.

Interestingly enough though—and perhaps somewhat counterintuitive—the trend I see emerging is that although Atlanta may win outright due to being favored by such margin—they’re not convincing enough to comfortably cover that spread given how poorly they’ve played recently.

Moreover, looking at total points scored historically between these two rivals leads me to predict another low-scoring affair: The total opened at 48.5 but considering both offenses’ recent outputs and defensive adjustments made throughout the season—the under seems like a reasonable expectation here.

In summary? Expect Atlanta to claim victory but don’t be shocked if Carolina manages to cover that +7.5 point spread amidst what should be yet another closely fought divisional matchup—with many betting lines leaning towards an UNDER outcome based on current statistics and performance trends from both sides leading up to kickoff!