Carolina Hurricanes @ New Jersey Devils - December 27, 2024

As the Carolina Hurricanes and New Jersey Devils gear up for their showdown at Prudential Center, there are a few key trends and stats to consider that could shape the outcome of this highly anticipated matchup. The oddsmakers have opened with the Hurricanes as slight favorites at -101 on the moneyline, while the total is set at 5.5.

Let’s start by examining both teams’ recent performances. The Devils come into this game riding high after a dominant 5-0 victory against their archrivals, the Rangers. This win not only solidified their standing in the league but also showcased their potent offense, which averages an impressive 3.343 goals per game with a shooting percentage of 11.6%. Their power play has been particularly effective, converting nearly one-third of their chances (31.2%). With a corsi percentage of 54.1% and strong offensive zone presence (53.3%), New Jersey’s offensive capabilities cannot be underestimated.

On the other side, we have Carolina, who recently faced a setback in their last outing against Nashville, losing 5-2. Despite this loss, they boast slightly better overall offensive numbers than New Jersey—averaging 3.471 goals per game with a higher shot volume of 31.6 shots per game and maintaining a corsi percentage of 59.4%. However, they struggle more on special teams compared to New Jersey; their power play sits at just over 26%, which is less efficient than what we see from the Devils.

Defensively, both teams have shown resilience but differ in effectiveness when it comes to stopping opposing shots and penalty kills. New Jersey leads with a save percentage of 90.1% and an impressive penalty kill rate of 82.5%. In contrast, Carolina’s defensive unit has allowed more opportunities against them with an average save percentage of only 88.9% and a lower penalty kill success rate (85%).

When considering these statistics alongside recent trends—Carolina has struggled on the road with just one cover in their last seven games (1-6 ATS)—it becomes evident that they face challenges away from home turf despite having superior overall metrics.

With all these factors taken into account, my prediction leans toward Carolina pulling off an upset victory tonight against New Jersey while covering the spread—a scenario where underdog wins often lead to covering as well given how close these matchups can be between division rivals.

Given both teams’ recent tendency towards lower-scoring affairs—the total has gone UNDER for five straight games for New Jersey—I expect this trend to continue tonight as well.

In summary: I predict Carolina will beat New Jersey tonight while covering the spread; expect another low-scoring contest likely finishing below that total line set at 5.5 goals.