Chicago Cubs @ Philadelphia Phillies - September 23, 2024

As a die-hard fan of the Chicago Cubs, it’s always an exciting day when our boys hit the diamond, especially against a team like the Philadelphia Phillies. But let’s be honest; tonight’s matchup at Citizens Bank Park has me feeling both anxious and optimistic.

The Cubs are riding high after that solid 5-0 win against the Nationals. There’s nothing quite like seeing your team dominate and come out on top. However, looking ahead to this game, I’m aware that we’re facing a tough challenge with Aaron Nola on the mound for Philadelphia. Now, sure, our guy Nate Pearson has shown flashes of brilliance this season with his 2-2 record and ERA just under 4.0. But let’s face it; he’ll need to bring his A-game to keep those pesky Phillies hitters in check.

Let’s talk about Nola for a moment. With a win-loss record of 12-8 and an ERA hovering around 3.9, he is no stranger to pressure situations—definitely someone you don’t want standing between your favorite team and victory. He strikes out over eight batters per game, which can be intimidating for any lineup, including ours.

Now onto hitting—this is where it gets tricky for us Cubs fans! The Phillies have been raking in runs with an average of almost five per game, while the Cubs are managing around 4.6. Not exactly lights-out numbers from our offense lately; those stats tell me we might struggle against a pitcher as capable as Nola if we can’t find ways to get runners on base consistently.

Furthermore, I can’t ignore the trends surrounding each team’s performance lately—the Phillies have stumbled somewhat in their last few games while struggling at home too (1-4 SU in their last five). On the flip side, we’re sitting pretty with some decent road performance (8-4 ATS in our last twelve games), so there’s hope there!

However, it looks like our pitching strategy might need to lean heavily into keeping the score low given how good Nola is when he’s on fire—and that makes me think about betting trends as well. Oddsmakers opened this game with an O/U at 7.5; judging by how both teams performed recently (the total going UNDER four times in Chicago’s last six outings), I wouldn’t be surprised if we see another low-scoring affair tonight.

So what am I thinking? As much as my heart wants to back my Cubbies for victory—I’ve got to predict a narrow win for the Phillies tonight. Their offense should find enough gaps against Pearson’s pitching style while taking advantage of those moments they can string hits together.

If you’re heading out to watch or tuning in from home decked out in your lucky jersey (like I will be!), prepare yourself for what could very well be a tense battle—but don’t expect fireworks on the scoreboard! My gut tells me we’ll end up under that total mark once again this evening: Phillips takes this one down with something close to a final score of 3-2 or maybe even lower than that!

Let’s go Cubbies! Always believing—even when reality nudges me otherwise!