Charlotte Hornets @ Sacramento Kings - February 24, 2025

As the Charlotte Hornets prepare to face off against the Sacramento Kings at Golden 1 Center, both teams find themselves in a critical juncture of their respective seasons. The Kings enter this matchup as -10-point favorites, reflecting their home-court advantage and the disparity in team records. While oddsmakers have set the total at 233 points, my analysis suggests that we might see an outcome that leans towards the under.

Let’s break down what each team brings to the table. The Sacramento Kings boast an impressive offensive output, averaging approximately 116.6 points per game on a shooting percentage of around 47.6%. Their three-point shooting sits at a respectable 34.4%, complemented by an effective free throw percentage of about 80.3%. However, they have struggled with turnovers, averaging nearly 13.5 per game—this could be a point of concern if they allow Charlotte’s defense to capitalize on those mistakes.

On defense, Sacramento has averaged just under 45 rebounds per game while allowing opponents some room for error with over 19 fouls committed on average. They also generate nearly eight steals per game but need to tighten up their ball control to avoid giving away easy opportunities.

Conversely, the Charlotte Hornets are having a challenging season with a record of just 14-41 SU (Straight Up). Their offensive stats reflect this struggle; they score around 106.3 points per game with a field goal percentage hovering around 42.9%. While they shoot slightly better from beyond the arc than Sacramento (34.5%), their overall effectiveness is hampered by lower assist numbers—averaging only about 23.9 assists compared to Sacramento’s near-27 assists per game.

Defensively, Charlotte has managed slightly better rebounding numbers than Sacramento but has been plagued by high turnover rates themselves—over 15 turnovers per game—which often leads to fast-break opportunities for opposing teams like Sacramento.

Given these statistics and recent performances—Sacramento’s recent loss against Golden State and Charlotte’s dismal showing against Portland—it appears that momentum favors the Kings heading into this matchup despite their own struggles covering spreads lately (1-6 ATS in last seven games).

Predictions? I foresee Sacramento taking control early and maintaining pressure throughout the contest due to superior scoring ability and home advantage, ultimately leading them to not only win but cover that -10 spread as well.

However, considering both teams’ tendencies toward lower-scoring outputs recently—the Hornets have seen four of their last six games go under—the total may very well fall below the projected mark of 233 points tonight.

In summary: expect a solid performance from Sacramento leading them to victory while covering the spread; however, don’t be surprised if we see an underwhelming total score due largely to both teams’ inefficiencies on offense relative to expectations.