Charlotte Hornets @ Toronto Raptors - March 28, 2025

As the Toronto Raptors prepare to host the Charlotte Hornets at Scotiabank Arena, fans can expect an intriguing matchup between two teams that are navigating their own challenges this season. Oddsmakers have set the Raptors as -4.5-point favorites, reflecting a belief in their ability to outperform the struggling Hornets.

The Raptors come into this game with a record of 26-47 and have been showing signs of life lately, particularly against tougher opponents. In their most recent outing, they dominated the Brooklyn Nets, winning 116-86 while covering a +2.5-point spread as underdogs. This performance was bolstered by an efficient offensive output of 110.4 points per game on 46% shooting—numbers that suggest they can score effectively when needed.

Conversely, the Hornets are reeling from three consecutive losses and hold a dismal record of 18-54. Their last game saw them fall to the Orlando Magic, where they failed to cover as +5-point underdogs despite putting up 104 points. With an average of just 105.8 points per game and shooting only 43% from the field, their offensive struggles are evident.

When we look deeper into team statistics, it’s clear that both squads face issues defensively but in different ways. The Raptors allow about 45 rebounds per game and force nearly eight steals; however, they also commit over 21 fouls which could give opponents easy scoring opportunities at the line—a critical factor for a team like Charlotte that shoots nearly 79% from free throws.

On paper, Toronto’s defensive metrics appear slightly better than those of Charlotte: while both teams grab around 45 rebounds per game (with Charlotte marginally ahead), Toronto’s ability to generate turnovers is noteworthy given their higher average in steals (7.9 vs. Charlotte’s 7.6). However, with both teams averaging over fifteen turnovers each night, ball security will be crucial for success.

Expectations for this matchup lean heavily towards Toronto coming out on top—not only because they’re favored but due to recent trends indicating they’ve covered seven out of nine spreads recently compared to Charlotte’s disappointing record against the spread (1-5 in their last six games).

In terms of total points scored during this contest, I predict it will exceed the opening line of 225 based on both teams’ current offensive capabilities and recent trends toward higher-scoring games for Charlotte—four out of their last five have gone OVER.

Overall, my prediction is clear: I see Toronto defeating Charlotte tonight while comfortably covering the spread—and with both teams capable offensively despite their flaws defensively—the total is likely to go OVER as well.