Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs - September 15, 2024

As I gear up for this Sunday’s showdown between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, one thing is clear: both teams are eager to secure their first win of the season. The Chiefs come in as 4-point favorites after a solid 27-20 victory over the Ravens, while the Bengals are still looking for their rhythm following a disappointing 16-10 loss to the Patriots at home.

From what I’ve seen so far, the Chiefs seem poised to continue their winning ways. They scored an average of 27 points in their opening game, showcasing impressive offensive capabilities. With a passing game that racked up around 291 yards and a completion percentage near 71.4%, it’s evident that their quarterback has found a groove. Additionally, their run game, while modest at 72 yards, adds a crucial layer to their offensive strategy; combined, they averaged over 10 yards per attempt, which keeps defenses guessing.

On the other hand, the Bengals have had a rocky beginning this season. An average of just 10 points per game is concerning, especially when paired with a passing game that only accumulated around 164 yards. Their completion percentage is commendable at 72.4%, but they haven’t been effective in pushing the ball downfield. A rushing attack that’s averaging 70 yards per game just doesn’t inspire confidence against a Chiefs defense known for stepping up when it counts.

Statistically, the Bengals haven’t fared particularly well in their last five games, holding a 1-3-1 record against the spread. They’ll need to shake off the weight of those expectations and deliver a focused performance. However, their history suggests a certain resilience on the road, boasting a 16-8 mark against the spread in their last 24 away games. Still, I think the spotlight on them is a bit too bright this week against a team like the Chiefs.

While oddsmakers have set the line at 48 for the game’s total, I predict a final score that stays below that mark. Judging by Kansas City’s recent trends—where they’ve gone under in 12 of their last 18 games—it wouldn’t be surprising for this game to play out similarly. Despite expecting the Chiefs to come out on top, I wouldn’t discount Cincinnati covering the spread. Their penchant for keeping games tight could prove beneficial this week, especially after a frustrating outing in their previous contest.

So here’s my prediction: the Chiefs will claim victory, but the Bengals will manage to keep it within the four-point margin. And for those looking to wager on the total, I believe it will finish under 48 points. With the way both teams are currently playing, it’s going to be all about strategic execution on offense and tightening up on defense. I’m excited to see how it all unfolds!