Cincinnati Reds @ New York Mets - September 6, 2024

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen my fair share of surprises, and I have to say that Friday’s matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and New York Mets is no exception. Both teams are entering this game with momentum – the Reds on a four-game win streak and the Mets winning their last seven. It’s one of those situations where you feel like anything could happen, which is both thrilling and terrifying for us gamblers.

Now, when we look at the pitching matchups, there’s definitely a contrast in form. The Reds are sending out Cruz, who has struggled this season with a 3-8 record and an ERA just above 4. He’s not exactly lighting it up on the mound, but he has shown flashes of brilliance at times. On the other hand, the Mets have Manaea taking the hill. With an 11-5 record and a respectable ERA of around 4.1, he seems to be in better shape going into this game.

However, numbers don’t always tell the whole story in baseball—especially if you factor in how each team has been performing lately. The Reds may not be statistically superior overall (they average about 4.5 runs per game compared to the Mets’ nearly 4.8), but they’re looking fresh after stringing together some impressive victories recently.

That said, let’s talk about betting lines for a minute. The odds opened with the Mets as favorites at -161 against the Reds. This may sound reasonable on paper given their recent run; however, I’m inclined to lean toward an upset here with Cincinnati pulling off what would be considered a minor miracle in beating these odds on their current hot streak.

My gut tells me that while Manaea can hold his own against most lineups, there’s something brewing for Cincinnati right now—something almost magical that isn’t easy to quantify through stats alone. Their recent win over Houston shows they know how to grind out close games even when hitting hasn’t been stellar.

Don’t get me wrong; I’m not saying it’ll be a high-scoring affair either; in fact, I’m predicting we’ll see an under performance from both teams offensively tonight as well. Given that both squads have had their struggles putting runs on board consistently and considering how crucial every pitch will feel in this tight contest, I’m leaning towards taking the Under of 7.5 runs for total score as well.

To sum it all up: My prediction? The Reds pull off a surprise victory over the Mets tonight while keeping it low-scoring—under 7.5 runs looks like solid value here! As always though—bet smart and don’t forget your lucky socks!