Cincinnati Reds @ Pittsburgh Pirates - August 24, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I find great joy in peeling back the layers of data to uncover insights that might otherwise go unnoticed. As we gear up for the matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, there are plenty of numbers to dissect.

First, let’s talk about the pitching matchup. The Reds will send Julian Aguiar to the mound, who has yet to secure a win this season with a 4.5 ERA. While those numbers might not jump off the page, they do suggest he has been competitive in outings despite not having found success in terms of wins. On the other hand, Jake Woods takes the hill for Pittsburgh with an unfortunate record of 0-5 and a 6.7 ERA—numbers that scream vulnerability.

Now let’s take a look at how these two teams stack up offensively. The Reds have averaged approximately 4.5 runs per game with an on-base slugging percentage around 68.5%. In contrast, the Pirates have managed about 4.1 runs per game but boast a slightly lower slugging percentage at around 65.9%. What stands out here is that while both teams struggle with batting averages (Cincinnati at .224 and Pittsburgh at .230), it’s clear that Cincinnati’s offense has shown more potential to generate runs.

When analyzing recent trends, it’s worth noting that Cincinnati has struggled recently with only two wins in their last seven games against the spread (ATS). However, they’ve shown flashes of offensive power by going OVER in four of their last six games—indicating they can score when needed.

Conversely, Pittsburgh may be riding high after their recent victory over Cincinnati where they won decisively by a score of 7-0—a performance that certainly boosts morale heading into this contest. But one must question if they can replicate such dominance given their overall struggles this season; they’ve lost 13 out of their last 17 games.

Looking ahead to Saturday’s matchup, I predict that Cincinnati will come out on top against Pittsburgh based on statistical trends and recent performances from both teams’ offenses and pitchers alike. Given Aguiar’s relatively solid performance thus far compared to Woods’ ongoing struggles on the mound coupled with Cincinnati’s ability to produce runs consistently—even if just marginally better than Pittsburgh—I see them edging out this contest.

Additionally, considering both teams’ propensity for higher-scoring affairs lately (especially Cincinnati), I believe we’ll see more than nine total runs scored in this game as well; therefore leaning towards taking the OVER on totals betting seems wise.

In conclusion, expect a spirited battle between division rivals where I anticipate Cincinnati pulling through for what should be an exciting game filled with plenty of action!