Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - September 11, 2024

As a former sports statistician, I’m excited to dive into the upcoming matchup between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium. With divisional bragging rights on the line, this game promises to be an intriguing one for fans and bettors alike.

The Reds come into this game riding a wave of momentum, having won three straight games. Their recent performance has been impressive; they’ve gone 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in their last ten outings and are 7-2 straight up (SU) in their last nine games. Even more telling is that five of their last six games have gone UNDER the total, indicating a strong trend towards lower-scoring affairs.

On the mound for Cincinnati will be Brandon Williamson, who boasts an ERA of 4.15 and an impressive strikeout rate of 8.5 per nine innings despite his win-loss record being at 0-0 this season. While his sample size may be limited, he’s shown potential that could play well against a Cardinals lineup that has struggled recently.

Conversely, Lance Lynn takes the hill for St. Louis with a slightly higher ERA of 4.3 and a win-loss record of 6-4. His strikeout rate sits at about 8 per nine innings as well but hasn’t translated into consistent success for the Cardinals lately—particularly when facing off against Cincinnati, where they are just 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings.

When we look at offensive production, it’s clear that both teams have had their ups and downs this season. The Reds score an average of approximately 4.5 runs per game compared to St. Louis’s average of around 4.1 runs per contest—though both teams struggle with batting averages below .250 (.226 for Cincinnati and .241 for St. Louis). However, what stands out is how each team performs in terms of RBIs: Cincinnati averages over four RBIs per game while St. Louis sits closer to four as well.

Given these statistics and trends leading up to Wednesday’s clash, I predict that the Reds will emerge victorious once again against the Cardinals based on their recent form combined with Williamson’s promising capabilities on the mound versus Lynn’s inconsistency.

Moreover, considering both teams’ offensive stats coupled with their current pitching performances suggests there could be enough run production to push past the total set at 8.5 runs for this matchup—even if both teams have leaned towards UNDER outcomes recently.

In conclusion, expect another competitive showdown between these two rivals where I foresee Cincinnati continuing its winning streak while also hinting at scoring opportunities that might lead us over tonight’s total line!