Cincinnati Reds @ St. Louis Cardinals - September 12, 2024

As a seasoned bettor, I’ve seen my fair share of rivalries in Major League Baseball, and the clash between the Cincinnati Reds and St. Louis Cardinals is one that never fails to deliver drama. When these two teams meet at Busch Stadium on Thursday, you can throw out the records—this game is always about pride and passion.

The Reds are sending out Jakob Junis, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season with a perfect 4-0 record and an impressive 4.1 ERA. The guy has a knack for getting outs when it matters most, evidenced by his solid strikeout rate of 8.5 per game. With the Reds riding a wave of momentum—9-2 against the spread in their last 11 games—we have to consider them as serious contenders tonight.

On the other side, we have Sonny Gray taking the mound for St. Louis, holding a respectable 12-9 record with a slightly higher ERA of 4.3. In recent outings, however, Gray’s performance has been inconsistent at best. He’s not only struggling to keep runs off the board but also facing challenges with walks that could lead to dangerous situations against an opportunistic Reds lineup that averages 4.4 runs per game.

Now let’s break down what both teams bring offensively: The Cardinals come in averaging about 4.1 runs per game with a batting average hovering around .241—not great by any stretch of the imagination. Their struggles are reflected in their recent form; they’re just 1-4 against the spread at home over their last five contests.

In contrast, despite having a lower batting average (.226), Cincinnati boasts a higher run production (4.4 runs) along with more RBIs at around 4.2 per game compared to St. Louis’s meager 3.9 RBIs per contest.

What does all this mean? I see value here for Cincinnati as underdogs tonight—and here’s why: They’ve shown resilience in crunch time and possess an offense that’s been relatively productive even if it hasn’t always translated into flashy batting stats.

I have an instinct backed by years of experience telling me it’s going to be a high-scoring affair tonight despite those UNDER trends from both clubs’ recent games—it feels like one of those classic rivalry matchups where bats wake up and pitchers struggle under pressure.

So here’s my prediction: The Reds will take this one against the Cardinals tonight—probably something like a 6-4 finish or so—with plenty of offense pushing us well over that total set at 7.5 runs.

To wrap up my thoughts: Keep your eyes peeled on Junis; he’s poised for another standout performance while Gray might crumble under pressure again—as he often does when stakes are high in these divisional matchups! As always, remember my betting rituals—place your bets strategically and don’t forget to wear your lucky socks! Good luck out there!