Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots - December 1, 2024

As the fans file into Gillette Stadium on Sunday, they’ll witness a clash between the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots. With oddsmakers opening the Colts as -3.5 favorites and a total set at 43.5, this matchup is shaping up to be intriguing.

First, let’s take stock of both teams’ recent performances. The Colts have struggled lately, losing their last game 24-6 against the Lions. They’ve had difficulties converting their potential into wins; despite being an underdog in that match, they failed to cover the +7-point spread—an indication of their current form. Interestingly enough, while they possess an average of 20.2 points per game and some decent yardage numbers—216 passing yards (though with a low completion percentage) and 116 rushing yards—they’ve been trending towards lower-scoring affairs recently, with five of their last seven games hitting the UNDER mark.

On the flip side, we have the Patriots who are experiencing what can only be described as a challenging season. After suffering a heavy defeat to Miami (34-15), New England finds itself with a dismal record of 3-9 SU and just 4-7-1 ATS for the year. Their offensive stats paint a sobering picture: averaging merely 16.4 points per game with only around 190 passing yards and yielding high expectations in terms of rushing attempts but still falling short in execution at just over five yards per attempt.

Now onto our predictions! The evidence suggests that while Indianapolis might emerge victorious given New England’s struggles this season—and particularly after being unable to execute effectively against strong defenses—the reality is that this will likely be closer than many expect. I predict that while the Colts will win outright, it won’t come without resistance from Bill Belichick’s squad.

Given recent trends where underdogs often find themselves covering even when losing (and history has shown us that), it seems plausible New England may keep this contest tight enough to cover that -3.5 spread despite what looks like another disappointing result on paper for them.

Considering all factors—including both teams’ point averages—I also anticipate we’ll see less scoring overall than oddsmakers suggest with an OVER/UNDER set at 43.5; I believe it’s more likely we’ll see something below that threshold based on how both offenses have operated lately coupled with strong defensive strategies from each side.

In conclusion: While I foresee an Indianapolis win here due to superior offensive output on paper versus New England’s challenges throughout this season thus far—with perhaps even some flashes from Belichick’s coaching magic—the Patriots should manage to hold steady enough not only keep pace but ultimately cover against these odds laid before them today as well! And all signs lead me towards betting on UNDER when it comes down to total score projections as well!