Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets - November 17, 2024

Ah, the thrill of NFL Sundays! I’ve been around this betting game long enough to know that anything can happen, especially when two teams like the Indianapolis Colts and New York Jets collide at MetLife Stadium. The oddsmakers have opened with the Jets as 4-point favorites, but let me tell you — sometimes those spreads just don’t tell the whole story.

The Jets come into this matchup reeling after a brutal 31-6 loss against the Cardinals. Ouch. They haven’t seen much success lately, sporting a record of just 3-7 straight up (SU) and an equally unimpressive 3-7 against the spread (ATS). Their offense has struggled to find its footing, averaging only 17.7 points per game with some lackluster passing stats: a completion percentage hovering just over 63%. You can’t win games if you can’t score — that’s betting wisdom right there.

On the flip side, we have an Indianapolis team that’s lost three straight games themselves. The Colts’ offense is slightly better on paper, averaging about 20.8 points per game and posting decent rushing stats with over 121 yards on average per outing. Their ability to run the ball effectively may keep them competitive in this one, especially considering how inconsistent their passing game has been; they’re barely completing over half their attempts!

Now, given these statistics and recent performances, here’s my hunch for Sunday: I predict that while the Jets might be favored to win outright, it won’t be by enough to cover that -4 point spread—especially with Indy coming in hot knowing they need to turn things around after their latest defeat at home against Buffalo where they couldn’t even cover +4.5.

Also worth noting is both teams’ tendencies regarding totals: while Indy has gone UNDER in four of their last five games thanks largely to defensive struggles and turnovers creating chaos for scoring opportunities, New York’s offensive woes lead me to believe we won’t see fireworks here either—look for another low-scoring affair that trends towards UNDER.

So what do we expect? For my money: **the Colts will cover**, potentially losing by just a field goal or so as they fight tooth-and-nail for redemption after dropping so many in a row; meanwhile **the UNDER seems likely** as well due to both offenses underwhelming expectations throughout this season thus far.

As always though—I’ll have my lucky charm close by because who knows when Lady Luck might decide to show her face! Bet smart folks; manage your risk wisely but also remember—there’s no substitute for experience combined with instinct when it comes down to making those final calls before kickoff!