Colorado Avalanche @ Calgary Flames - March 14, 2025

As we gear up for the clash between the Colorado Avalanche and the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome, both teams are coming off disappointing results that will add intensity to this matchup. The Avalanche dropped a tight contest to the Wild, while the Flames fell short against the Canucks. Both squads have their backs against the wall and are eager to reclaim momentum in what is sure to be an electrifying encounter.

On paper, Colorado has been displaying a stronger offensive presence throughout the season with an average of 3.3 goals per game compared to Calgary’s 2.6. They also boast a higher shooting percentage at 11.4%, which can make a significant difference when it comes to capitalizing on scoring chances. The Avalanche’s ability to generate more shots—nearly 30 per game—paired with their solid power play percentage of over 23% indicates they can put pressure on opposing defenses effectively.

In contrast, Calgary has struggled offensively lately, averaging just over two-and-a-half goals per game and showing challenges in finishing opportunities with an 8.9% shooting percentage. Their power play has not been particularly effective either, hitting just over 21% success rate on their chances which may prove detrimental against a team like Colorado that thrives on capitalizing during special teams situations.

Defensively speaking, both teams exhibit some vulnerabilities but there’s a marked difference in how they’ve fared overall this season. Colorado’s penalty kill sits at roughly 79% while Calgary’s is even lower at around 75%. This indicates that if Colorado can draw penalties and utilize their power play efficiently, they could easily find themselves racking up points.

However, let’s not discount Calgary entirely; defensively they do maintain a respectable save percentage around 90%. If they can harness that strength alongside home-ice advantage and find ways to neutralize Colorado’s attack, there remains potential for them to surprise tonight.

From my experience behind the bench, I’ve often witnessed games hinge upon discipline and execution under pressure. The key factors tonight will be whether Calgary can tighten its defense and improve its offensive production; conversely, if Colorado remains disciplined and leverages their superior attacking capabilities along with utilizing effective line changes based on zone control metrics (where they’ve had slight advantages), they’ll likely dictate pace of play.

Given all these factors combined with both team’s recent trends—a struggling offense for Calgary going head-to-head against a potent Avalanche squad—I foresee Colorado taking this one handily while covering the spread as favorites at -169 odds. Additionally, given both teams’ tendency towards lower-scoring matches recently (especially evident in Calgary’s last ten games seeing eight unders), I expect this one too will stay under the total set at 5.5 goals.

Overall prediction: Expect the Avalanche to walk away victorious tonight while asserting dominance over Calgary—both straight-up and against the spread—while keeping score totals low as well!