Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres - April 12, 2025

As I look ahead to the matchup between the Colorado Rockies and San Diego Padres at Petco Park, it’s hard to ignore the stark contrast in both teams’ performances this season. The Rockies are struggling with a record of 3-10 and have shown some alarming trends. They’ve lost nine of their last eleven games, and their offensive output is dismal, averaging just 1.75 runs per game with a batting average that hovers around .199. This isn’t just bad; it’s historically low for any Major League Baseball team.

On the other hand, we have the Padres, who are thriving with an impressive 11-3 record. Their offense has been productive, averaging 4.6 runs per game with a solid batting average of .282. With a slugging percentage of 75.6%, they’re not only getting on base but also driving in runs effectively—averaging about 4.2 RBIs per game.

Now let’s break down the pitching matchups for Saturday’s contest. Chase Dollander will take the mound for Colorado with an ERA of 5.328 over his limited appearances this season, which indicates he has struggled to keep runs off the board consistently—even against weaker lineups. Meanwhile, Kyle Hart will be starting for San Diego; while his ERA sits at an inflated 11.12 from earlier outings, recent stats show he’s found some form with a much-improved ERA of 2.813 and nine strikeouts in his latest performance.

Given these factors, I expect San Diego to continue its winning streak against Colorado after dominating them in their last encounter—an emphatic 8-0 victory that left no doubt as to which team was superior on that day.

The oddsmakers opened this game favoring San Diego at -166 on the moneyline and set the total at 8.5 runs—a number that feels conservative given both teams’ current trajectories and recent scoring outputs from each side.

With Colorado’s offense sputtering so badly (just two wins against spread in their last eleven), it’s reasonable to predict they’ll struggle again here against a capable Padres lineup that can exploit weaknesses effectively.

I foresee another high-scoring affair where I would lean towards taking the OVER on total runs scored as well—especially considering how often both teams have seen totals go OVER recently (four out of Colorado’s last six games).

In summary: Expect a decisive win for San Diego as they capitalize on Colorado’s struggles both offensively and defensively while likely exceeding that total run mark once again tonight!