Crystal Palace @ Newcastle United - April 16, 2025

As we look ahead to Wednesday’s exciting English Premier League clash between Newcastle United and Crystal Palace, there are several key statistics and trends that will shape our expectations for this encounter.

Newcastle United currently sits in 4th place on the league table with a record of 17 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, while Crystal Palace occupies 11th place with a record of 11 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses. It’s clear that Newcastle has had the better season overall, and that advantage is reflected in the sportsbooks, which opened the odds at -154 for Newcastle and +400 for Palace, signaling confidence in the home team.

Diving into the numbers, Newcastle boasts an impressive scoring average of 1.8 goals per match with a notable shooting rate of 13.3 attempts per game, of which 4.2 are on target. Their accuracy reflects a commanding 80% passing rate. This statistical profile suggests a team that not only creates scoring opportunities but does so efficiently—a crucial factor against a side like Crystal Palace.

On the flip side, while Crystal Palace has shown they can generate chances with an average of 13.5 shots per game, their goal-scoring efficiency is notably lower at 1.3 goals per match. Their shooting accuracy is also decent with about 4.6 shots on target per game, and a passing percentage of 75%, but these metrics indicate a team struggling to convert chances into goals consistently.

Recent form is also critical in this analysis. Newcastle comes off a resounding 4-1 victory against Manchester United, a performance that highlights their offensive prowess. That match alone saw 5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of overs in the total goal count. Meanwhile, Crystal Palace’s last outing resulted in a disheartening loss to Manchester City, where they were on the receiving end of a similar high-scoring affair, conceding 7 goals in total. This trend of high-scoring games for both teams adds compelling context to the over/under, which we can expect to push towards the over in this matchup.

When it comes to fouls, both teams sit relatively close, with Newcastle averaging 10.5 fouls per game and Crystal Palace slightly higher at 11.0. It’s essential to consider the tactical discipline each side may bring; often, the team that can maintain their composure will have the upper hand. However, given the offensive capabilities of Newcastle and their recent form, it’s likely that they will impose their strategy early, despite Crystal Palace’s capabilities to challenge defensively.

Based on the analysis, my prediction for this matchup is that Newcastle United will emerge victoriously over Crystal Palace. Additionally, considering both teams’ propensity for overs in recent outings, expect this game to see more than a few goals, driving the total over the listed line. With home-field advantage and a more potent attack on display, Newcastle is well-positioned to take all three points in what promises to be an entertaining encounter.