Dallas Stars @ Edmonton Oilers - March 26, 2025

As I lace up my betting shoes for this matchup between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers, I can’t help but feel that this is a classic case of two teams on different trajectories. The odds have opened with the Oilers as slight favorites at -101, but I’m leaning towards the Stars to pull off the victory tonight at Rogers Place.

First off, let’s talk about what each team has been doing lately. The Stars come into this game riding high after a solid 3-0 win against the Wild. Their defense was rock-solid, showcasing a stellar save percentage of 90.7%, which has been a hallmark of their success this season. They’ve also been strong on the penalty kill, sitting at an impressive 84.95%. When you combine that with their offensive firepower—averaging 3.362 goals per game—their chances look promising.

On the flip side, we have the Oilers who recently edged out a thrilling 5-4 victory against the Kraken. While they boast some offensive stats worth noting—like an average of 3.271 goals per game and a decent power play percentage of 25.71%—their defensive numbers raise some eyebrows. With only an 89.4% save rate and a penalty kill percentage hovering around 76.74%, they’ve shown vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a team like Dallas.

Now, let’s dive into how these trends affect our expectations for tonight’s game. The Stars are not just winning; they’re doing so convincingly, with a record of 16-7 in their last 23 games—a testament to their consistency and resilience on both ends of the ice. In contrast, while Edmonton is riding high on recent form (4-1 SU in their last five), they’ve struggled against spread bets (6-14 ATS in their last twenty). This paints a picture where Dallas could not only win but cover that spread.

When it comes to scoring totals, I believe we’ll see an UNDER outcome tonight despite both teams having capable offenses. The total opened at 6.5, but given Dallas’s recent trend of unders (5 out of their last 7 games) combined with Edmonton’s defensive lapses potentially being mitigated by Dallas’s robust defense—it feels like we might be looking at something closer to a low-scoring affair.

So here’s my prediction: Dallas takes this one outright, covering any spread set before them while keeping things under that total line of 6.5 goals. With my lucky charm—a well-worn hockey puck from my first big win—I’m feeling good about this bet! Let’s ride with the Stars tonight; it just feels right!