Dallas Mavericks @ New Orleans Pelicans - January 29, 2025

As the Dallas Mavericks prepare to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans at the Smoothie King Center, we have an intriguing matchup between two teams trending in opposite directions. The Mavericks enter this game with a solid record of 25-22, while the Pelicans struggle at 12-35. Given the odds opened with Dallas as -2-point favorites, let’s dive into what we can expect from this contest.

The Mavericks are coming off a convincing home victory over the Wizards, winning 130-108 and covering a hefty -13-point spread. Their offensive efficiency is evident as they average 115.1 points per game on an impressive shooting percentage of 47.8%. They also excel from beyond the arc, hitting 36.7% of their three-point attempts. While their assist numbers sit slightly below average at around 24.9 assists per game, their ability to score consistently has kept them competitive in most matchups.

On defense, Dallas has shown some vulnerabilities but remains effective overall, allowing opponents to grab just under 45 rebounds per game and forcing approximately 8 steals nightly. However, they do need to be cautious about fouling; averaging nearly 19 fouls could lead to giving free opportunities to opponents if not managed properly.

In contrast, New Orleans enters this game after suffering a defeat against Toronto where they lost by nine points and failed to cover a +1-point spread as underdogs. Their offensive struggles are apparent; they score only about 109.2 points per game with a shooting percentage hovering around 44.4%. Their long-range shooting is particularly concerning at just over 34%, which makes it difficult for them to stretch defenses effectively.

Defensively, New Orleans grabs roughly 43 rebounds and averages almost nine steals per game; however, they lose more than fourteen turnovers each outing—an area that has plagued them throughout the season. Additionally, committing over eighteen fouls puts them in precarious positions against teams like Dallas that can capitalize from the free-throw line (Dallas shoots around 77% from there).

Given these statistics and trends leading up to this matchup, I predict that the Mavericks will emerge victorious tonight against the Pelicans while covering the spread comfortably due to their superior offensive capabilities and defensive resilience compared to New Orleans’s ongoing struggles.

Moreover, considering both teams’ recent scoring outputs—Dallas exceeding expectations with totals often surpassing benchmarks—and New Orleans showing signs of life offensively despite their record (with four overs in six games), I anticipate that tonight’s total will likely exceed its opening line of 231.5 points.

In summary: expect a strong performance from Dallas leading them past New Orleans while covering -2-points easily; also anticipate an OVER outcome based on both teams’ current scoring trajectories and tendencies.