Dallas Stars @ Tampa Bay Lightning - November 23, 2024

As the Dallas Stars prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Amalie Arena, fans can expect an exciting matchup filled with intriguing stats and trends that may influence the outcome. Oddsmakers have opened the Stars as slight favorites at -132 on the moneyline, with a total set at 6 goals.

The Stars come into this game riding a wave of momentum, boasting a record of 12-6-0 SU and winning four of their last five games. Their offensive stats show they average about 3.5 goals per game while firing an impressive 31 shots on net, which translates to an 11.4% shooting percentage. Additionally, their corsi percentage sits comfortably at around 54.9%, indicating that they control more puck possession than their opponents.

On special teams, Dallas has struggled slightly with a power play conversion rate of just over 16%. However, they do generate about three chances per game and manage to score roughly half a goal during those opportunities. Defensively, they are performing exceptionally well with a save percentage of 91.2% and an impressive penalty kill rate at nearly 85%. This solid defensive foundation could be crucial in limiting Tampa Bay’s scoring opportunities.

Speaking of the Lightning, they enter this contest with a record of 10-6-2 SU but have faced some challenges lately—most notably losing their last match against Columbus in a high-scoring affair that ended in a staggering total of 13 goals (7-6). While Tampa Bay averages around 3.5 goals per game themselves, their shooting percentage is lower than Dallas’s at approximately 13%. The Lightning also struggle somewhat in generating offense from power plays; despite having about three chances each game, they convert only around 21% into actual goals.

Defensively for Tampa Bay, they’ve allowed opponents to score on them more frequently than they’d like—with only an average save percentage of about 89.5%. Their penalty kill unit is functioning below par as well at just under 77%. Given these numbers, it’s clear that if Dallas can capitalize on their offensive chances while maintaining strong defensive play, they stand a good chance to win.

In terms of betting trends leading up to this matchup: Dallas has covered the spread in recent outings despite being inconsistent on the road (2-6 ATS in its last eight). Meanwhile, Tampa Bay has struggled against the spread too (2-6 ATS) but has found success when playing at home (4-1 SU). However, considering both teams’ current form and statistical performance—especially defensively—I predict that Dallas will not only win tonight but also cover the spread effectively.

As for total scoring? Given both teams’ recent performances and defensive capabilities—alongside Tampa’s tendency for lower-scoring games recently—the expectation leans towards an “under” outcome for this matchup. Overall, it should be an engaging clash where data-driven insights suggest favoring Dallas while keeping expectations tempered regarding total points scored.