Denver Nuggets @ New Orleans Pelicans - December 22, 2024

As the Denver Nuggets roll into the Smoothie King Center to face off against the New Orleans Pelicans, fans can expect an intriguing clash between two teams currently on opposite trajectories. The Nuggets enter this game as -7.5-point favorites, reflecting their stronger overall performance and offensive prowess.

Looking at recent performances, the Pelicans are struggling mightily with a record of 5-24 SU and have lost six straight games. Their last outing resulted in a disappointing 104-93 loss to the Knicks, failing to cover as +7.5-point underdogs. With an average of just 105.4 points per game and shooting only 43.8% from the field, it’s clear that New Orleans has been unable to find its rhythm offensively.

In contrast, Denver boasts a more impressive offensive output with 119.4 points per game on a solid shooting percentage of nearly 50%. They also excel in ball movement with an average of 31 assists per game—nearly eight more than what New Orleans manages (23.6 assists). This disparity in offensive efficiency is likely to be a significant factor in determining tonight’s outcome.

Defensively, both teams have their weaknesses but show some similarities in rebounding numbers; Denver averages slightly better at 44.8 total rebounds compared to New Orleans’ 43.0 rebounds per game. However, turnovers could play a critical role: while Denver loses around 14.7 turnovers per game, New Orleans struggles even more with about 15 turnovers lost each outing—a statistic that highlights their inability to maintain possession and create scoring opportunities.

Given these stats and trends leading up to this matchup, I predict that the Nuggets will not only win but also cover the spread comfortably against the Pelicans’ struggling squad. The combination of Denver’s high-octane offense versus New Orleans’ lackluster defense should lead to a relatively one-sided contest.

However, when looking at the Over/Under set at 231 for this matchup, I lean towards expecting it to fall under that mark despite Denver’s propensity for high-scoring games (they’ve gone OVER in over half their last contests). The Pelicans’ offensive inefficiencies may hinder them from contributing significantly enough for this total to hit—especially given their recent form where they scored just over 100 points against another team.

In summary: expect a strong showing from Denver as they capitalize on New Orleans’ current woes while covering the spread effectively—and look for this contest to stay UNDER the projected total due largely to the Pelicans’ struggles on offense.