Edmonton Oilers @ New York Islanders - March 14, 2025

As the Edmonton Oilers prepare to face off against the New York Islanders at UBS Arena, there are several intriguing trends and stats that could shape the outcome of this matchup. The Oilers come into this game as -169 moneyline favorites, reflecting their stronger offensive capabilities compared to the Islanders.

Looking at the numbers, Edmonton boasts an impressive average of 3.2 goals per game, supported by a shooting percentage of 10.3%. They also generate more shots on goal with an average of 32 per game, which gives them a significant edge in offensive opportunities. Their power play is particularly lethal, converting nearly 26.4% of their chances into goals—this is a stark contrast to New York’s struggling power play, which operates at just 11.9%.

On the other hand, New York’s offense has been lackluster this season, averaging only 2.7 goals per game with a shooting percentage hovering around 9.7%. Their ability to capitalize on scoring chances has been further hampered by their low power play conversion rate—only about 29% of their opportunities result in goals.

Defensively, both teams have room for improvement; however, New York does have a slight edge in save percentage at 89.6%, compared to Edmonton’s 89.2%. The Islanders’ penalty kill stands at a modest 70.5%, while Edmonton’s is slightly better at 75.6%. This suggests that both teams may struggle when it comes to defending against special teams.

Recent performance indicates that both teams are facing challenges; Edmonton has lost four out of its last five games against the spread (ATS) and has struggled in recent matchups overall with only three wins in their last eleven games (3-8 SU). Conversely, New York seems to be finding some form at home with an impressive record of 8-2 SU over their last ten home games and covering the spread nine times during that stretch.

Despite these recent struggles for Edmonton and strong home performance from New York, I believe we will see the Oilers come away victorious tonight. Their superior offensive stats provide them with enough firepower to exploit any defensive lapses from the Islanders.

Given all these factors combined with historical trends indicating that if an underdog does win they cover the spread—the prediction here leans towards Edmonton not only winning but also covering tonight’s spread comfortably while keeping total scores under six-and-a-half goals based on both teams’ recent scoring patterns.

In conclusion: expect an entertaining clash where Edmonton capitalizes on its offensive prowess while limiting New York’s scoring chances—a recipe for success leading them toward victory tonight!