Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning - April 24, 2025

As the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning gear up for their showdown at Amalie Arena, there’s plenty of data to dissect that can help us predict the outcome. The Panthers come into this game with a record of 48-31-4, while the Lightning sit slightly behind at 47-28-8. Oddsmakers have opened Florida as -105 moneyline favorites, which reflects confidence in their recent form.

In their last meeting, Florida decisively triumphed over Tampa Bay with a score of 6-2. Bettors who backed Florida at +104 on the moneyline were rewarded handsomely. This victory not only showcased Florida’s offensive prowess but also highlighted some defensive vulnerabilities from Tampa Bay.

When we analyze offensive stats per game, Tampa Bay boasts an impressive average of 3.6 goals scored and generates around 28.5 shots on goal with a shooting percentage of approximately 13%. However, they may face challenges against a Panthers team that averages just slightly fewer goals (3) but compensates with more shots per game (31.5) and better corsi percentage (56.2%). This suggests that Florida has been more effective in controlling puck possession and generating scoring opportunities.

On special teams, both squads have shown competence but differ slightly in effectiveness; Tampa Bay’s power play operates at about 25.9%, while Florida is not far behind at 23.5%. Both teams are capable of capitalizing on penalties—Tampa averages around 0.7 power play goals per game compared to Florida’s similar figure of approximately 0.7 as well.

Defensively, however, is where things get interesting. The Lightning have a solid save percentage of roughly 90.7% and an admirable penalty kill rate of about 81.6%. In contrast, the Panthers struggle somewhat defensively with a save percentage of only 89.6% and a lower penalty kill efficiency at around 80.7%. This could be pivotal if either team finds themselves shorthanded during critical moments in the game.

Given these trends and statistics leading into this matchup, I foresee the Panthers coming out on top once again against their division rivals tonight—especially considering their recent form where they’ve won four out of their last six games compared to Tampa’s two wins in six outings.

Moreover, given how both teams are trending towards tighter scoring affairs lately—with seven out of ten games for Florida going under—the total set at 6.5 seems ambitious for this encounter when factoring in each team’s defensive metrics alongside their offensive outputs.

In summary: expect the Florida Panthers to secure another victory over the Lightning tonight while covering the spread as underdogs; I would lean towards betting on the total points being under as well based on current trends and statistical analysis.