Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos - January 5, 2025

As we gear up for an electrifying divisional showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos, it’s clear that both teams have a lot at stake. With bragging rights on the line, let’s dive into what we can expect from this intriguing matchup at Empower Field at Mile High.

First off, oddsmakers opened with Denver as 5.5-point favorites, which may seem surprising given Kansas City’s dominant season record of 15-1 straight up (SU). However, it’s essential to look beyond just win-loss records to gain deeper insights. While Kansas City boasts a remarkable streak—winning their last six games—their performance against the spread (ATS) has been less consistent. They are only 3-7 ATS in their last ten games, indicating that while they are winning on the field, they aren’t necessarily covering spreads by wide margins.

On the other hand, Denver comes into this game with a respectable record of 9-7 SU and an impressive 11-5 ATS. The Broncos have shown resilience lately, going 5-2 ATS over their last seven outings. This trend suggests they might be able to capitalize on any weaknesses displayed by Kansas City during those close-call wins.

Now let’s consider scoring potential and offensive capabilities of both teams. Denver averages about 24.2 points per game along with strong metrics like 217.9 passing yards per game at a completion rate of approximately 65%. On the ground, they contribute around 109.4 rushing yards per contest with an average of about 6.4 yards per attempt—a solid foundation for offensive production.

Conversely, Kansas City’s offense is slightly more efficient when it comes to passing; averaging around 246.8 yards per game and hitting a completion percentage close to 67.7%. They also manage roughly similar rushing yardage figures as Denver but boast marginally better efficiency at approximately 6.8 yards per attempt.

Looking closely at defensive stats could provide further clarity on how this matchup will unfold as well—though not detailed here—it should be noted that defensive strengths will play crucial roles in limiting scoring opportunities.

Given these statistics alongside recent trends—Kansas City’s tendency towards lower-scoring affairs should also inform our expectations for total points scored in this matchup; notably they’ve gone UNDER in four out of their last five games despite their explosive offensive capabilities throughout the season.

Considering all these factors leads me to predict a tight game where I foresee Kansas City emerging victorious despite being underdogs once again—further solidifying that even if they do not cover large spreads frequently in general situations lately, I believe they’ll cover against Denver specifically today due to superior execution down stretch while limiting high scores consistently showcased from previous matchups!

In conclusion: I’m predicting that Kansas City secures the win tonight while also covering the spread; however it seems prudent betters may lean toward taking Under given historical data suggesting low-scoring outputs involving them recently! Buckle up because regardless of what happens—it promises excitement!