Los Angeles Angels @ Houston Astros - September 19, 2024

Alright, my fellow bettors, it’s time to dig into this matchup between the Los Angeles Angels and the Houston Astros. We’re heading to Minute Maid Park on Thursday for a division rivalry that’s sure to have some fireworks.

The Angels will send a lefty to the mound in José Suarez, who has had quite the rollercoaster season with a record of 1-2 and a not-so-pretty ERA of 4.6. He’s got decent strikeout numbers at about 7.8 per game, but let’s be real here: the Angels’ pitching has been shaky all year. They’ve coughed up runs like it’s nobody’s business, leading them to an overall record of 62-90. In their last outing, they managed to scrape out a win against the White Sox, but let’s not kid ourselves — they’ve been struggling lately with a 1-7 ATS record in their last eight games.

On the flip side, we have Yusei Kikuchi taking the mound for Houston. This guy is sitting at .500 with a record of 9-9 but boasts a much more respectable ERA of 3.8 and strikes out over nine batters per game. The Astros are coming off a disappointing loss against the Padres where they were shut out completely — definitely something they’ll want to bounce back from quickly. With an overall team record of 82-70 and solid recent performances (5-2 SU in their last seven), I’m feeling pretty confident that Houston will find its groove again tonight.

Now let’s talk numbers; Houston averages about 4.6 runs per game with an impressive batting average hovering around .257 and an on-base percentage over 72%. Meanwhile, the Angels’ stats tell another story: they’re only managing around 3.9 runs per game with a dismal .223 batting average and lower on-base percentage at roughly 65%. It paints quite the picture when you consider how these teams stack up offensively.

Given these trends, I’m leaning hard toward picking the Astros to take this one outright as -257 favorites on the moneyline — that seems just about right considering how both teams have performed recently. And while we’re at it… let’s chat totals! The total opened at 8.5 which feels low given both pitchers’ propensity to give up runs and Houston’s strong offense ready to capitalize after that shutout loss.

I predict we could see something higher than what oddsmakers are expecting in terms of scoring from both sides tonight—definitely take that OVER into consideration as well because we might just witness this one getting wild.

So there you have it: Astros win tonight against the Angels, and keep your eyes peeled for an OVER on that total score! Place your bets wisely folks; remember my little rituals before making those calls — it never hurts! Good luck!