Leganés @ Athletic Bilbao - January 26, 2025

As a former sports statistician turned soccer enthusiast, I relish the opportunity to dissect matchups and unveil insights that may go unnoticed by the casual observer. This Sunday’s clash between Athletic Bilbao and Leganes promises to be one of those intriguing encounters. Athletic Bilbao currently sits comfortable in 3rd place in La Liga with an 11-6-3 record, while Leganes is fighting to remain afloat in 15th place with a 5-7-8 record.

From a betting perspective, oddsmakers have opened with Bilbao as the clear favorites at -286, while Leganes is getting a hefty price at +760, and a draw is pegged at +370. These odds suggest that the market sees Bilbao as a strong contender, likely benefiting from home-field advantage and their recent form.

In the last match, Athletic Bilbao secured a solid 2-1 victory over Celta de Vigo, marking their sixth victory at home this season. This not only reflects their offensive potency but also showcases their ability to grind out wins despite competitive opposition. The three goals scored in that match suggest that Bilbao is not just relying on defense; they have the capacity to create opportunities and put them away.

Conversely, Leganes comes off a surprising 1-0 upset against Atletico Madrid. While the win provided a much-needed morale boost, the low-scoring nature of that match reinforces a vital trend. Both of Leganes’ last two matches have gone UNDER the total goals mark. This trend indicates that they are adopting a more defensive game plan, looking to accumulate points while relying on their backline.

When analyzing the goals scored and allowed after rounding all statistics to the nearest tenth, we see notable differences: Athletic Bilbao has scored 36 goals while conceding 23, exhibiting a solid goal differential of +13. In contrast, Leganes has managed to score only 19 goals, while conceding 25, which translates into a –6 goal differential. This stark contrast in goal differentials suggests that Bilbao’s attacking prowess and defensively structured approach make them favorable in this matchup.

In terms of tactical outlook, I expect Bilbao to maintain its attacking strategy while attempting to control possession. For Leganes, the task will be to disrupt Bilbao’s rhythm, likely employing a compact defensive setup aiming for quick counter-attacking opportunities. However, given their tendency to concede goals and Bilbao’s current home form, it’s challenging to envision Leganes’ strategies yielding significant dividends.

Predicting outcomes based solely on numbers is an inexact science, yet the data paints a picture: Athletic Bilbao’s performance and form place them as strong favorites to secure the win. I envision a scoreline of 2-0 or 3-1 in favor of the hosts. While I wouldn’t eliminate the possibility of a Leganes goal given their recent victory, the likelihood of Bilbao sealing the deal at home seems more probable.

As always, football, like any sport, has its surprises, but based on historical data and recent trends, it looks promising for the home side this Sunday.