Leicester City @ Everton - February 1, 2025

As we head into the match between Everton FC and Leicester City, it’s hard to overlook the implications both teams face in their ongoing fight for Premier League survival. They sit close on the table, with Everton in 16th place and Leicester just about looking up in 17th. With Everton’s record standing at 5 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses, versus Leicester’s disappointing 4 wins, 5 draws, and 14 losses, expectations are running high for a match that could determine both clubs’ trajectories moving forward.

Digging into the numbers, Everton has been averaging just 0.8 goals per match, which is concerningly low, but their recent performance shows some promise with a narrow 1-0 win against Brighton & Hove Albion. That solitary goal highlights a trend that’s persisted for them: while they struggle to find the net, their defense seems to hold up fairly well. The Toffees currently take about 10.9 shots per match, of which only around 3.0 are on target. Coupled with a respectable passing percentage of around 75.3%, it’s clear they can control some possession but often lack the clinical edge needed to finish chances.

In contrast, Leicester City has been a little more productive in front of goal with an average of 1.1 goals per match. Despite their struggles this season, they did find the back of the net twice against a formidable Tottenham side in their last outing, revealing a glimmer of attacking potential. Leicester manages 9.3 shots per match, also hitting the target 3 times per game but with a slightly better passing accuracy at 79.1%. However, a concerning statistic for them is their penchant for committing fouls, averaging just over 11 per match; this could play into Everton’s hands if they look to capitalize on set-pieces.

In terms of the betting odds, Everton opens as the favorite at -138, which factors in home advantage, while Leicester sits at +350, and a draw at +275 seems plausible given their close standings. Nevertheless, considering both teams’ involvement in the relegation battle and their fluctuating forms, it seems more likely that the home side, Everton, should manage to secure a crucial win.

When considering the total goals, the odds suggest a lower-scoring affair is likely. Given Everton’s defensive solidity and Leicester’s recent inconsistency, I would lean towards backing the UNDER on the totals. It simply feels like a tight contest where both teams will prioritize not losing over aggressively chasing a win.

Taking all this into account, I predict Everton will emerge victorious in this encounter, possibly with a scoreline of 1-0 or even 2-1, thus keeping the OVER betting in check and further reinforcing the notion that we may be in for a clash defined by cagey tactics rather than end-to-end action. Expect tightly contested battles in every area of the pitch, as these two sides line up in such a critical match.