Las Palmas @ Athletic Bilbao - April 23, 2025

As a former sports statistician and data enthusiast, I’m eager to delve into the upcoming La Liga clash between Athletic Bilbao and Las Palmas on Wednesday. Both teams are in need of points, which always adds an extra layer of intrigue to the matchup.

To break down the numbers, we see that Athletic Bilbao enters this encounter with a respectable record of 15 wins, 12 draws, and 5 losses, positioning them well in the standings. In contrast, Las Palmas comes in with a record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and a staggering 16 losses. It’s important to note that while Athletic Bilbao has shown more consistency throughout the season, Las Palmas is fresh off a significant victory against Atletico Madrid, which should provide some momentum.

From a betting perspective, sportsbooks have set the odds quite firmly: Las Palmas at +836 and Athletic Bilbao at -352, with a draw lined at +444. These odds suggest a clear favorite in Athletic Bilbao, which is logical considering their position in the league compared to that of Las Palmas. However, let’s not forget that football is notorious for surprises, and recent results suggest that Las Palmas could be ready to spring one.

When analyzing recent performances, Athletic Bilbao’s last outing was a tough loss against Real Madrid, where they managed only a single goal, resulting in a total that landed in the UNDER territory for bettors. On the flip side, Las Palmas’s recent win was a low-scoring affair, finishing 1-0 against Atletico Madrid, which also saw the total goals land in the UNDER. This steady trend towards low-scoring matches may suggest that both teams might struggle in front of goal, a stat to keep an eye on as we look for possible scoring patterns moving forward.

Based on statistical trends, it’s crucial to consider how both teams fare against similar competition. Athletic Bilbao has shown they can compete with higher-tier teams and extracting points against mid-table squads has been a hallmark of their season. However, Las Palmas, despite their poor record, may capitalize on complacency or pressure faced by Bilbao coming off a string of challenging matches.

Looking at expected outcomes, my analysis leads me to predict that Athletic Bilbao will emerge victorious. They have the crucial home advantage and superior squad depth to outlast Las Palmas. A 2-1 win could be an accurate scoreline, reflecting Bilbao’s ability to find the net while potentially conceding a goal in moments of defensive lapse, which they have shown at times this season.

Ultimately, while the traditional metrics suggest that Bilbao should secure the points here, Las Palmas’s fleeting momentum from their last match implies that they won’t roll over easily. Expect a closely-fought encounter, but one that tilts in favor of the home side, particularly due to their track record of bouncing back after losses. Keep an eye on those totals as well; given both teams’ recent results, the UNDER remains a solid prediction for this match.