Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets - April 11, 2025

As we gear up for the matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and the Denver Nuggets at Ball Arena, it’s clear that both teams are looking to bounce back from their recent performances. The Nuggets, currently favored by 7 points, have shown some offensive firepower recently, scoring an average of 120.7 points per game on a solid shooting percentage of 50.8%. Their ability to stretch the floor is highlighted by their 37.9% three-point shooting and a respectable free throw percentage of 77.0%.

On the other hand, the Grizzlies have been equally impressive offensively, averaging slightly more points at 121.7 per game with a field goal percentage of nearly 48%. However, they face challenges in maintaining consistent defensive pressure and limiting turnovers—losing about 15.8 possessions per game compared to Denver’s 14.4.

Recent trends suggest that Memphis has struggled against the spread lately with a dismal record of just 5-19-1 in their last 25 games. This indicates a lack of consistency when it comes to covering spreads, especially as they’ve lost four out of their last twelve contests outright. Meanwhile, Denver’s recent form has not been much better; they’re just 1-4 against the spread in their last five games but did manage to secure a win against Sacramento in their most recent outing.

When analyzing team defenses, Memphis does have an edge in rebounding with an average of 47.4 total rebounds per game compared to Denver’s 45.7. However, they also commit significantly more fouls (20.9) than Denver (17.7), which could lead to crucial free throw opportunities for the Nuggets.

Given these factors and statistical insights from both teams’ recent performances, I predict that the Nuggets will come out on top tonight against Memphis while also covering the spread comfortably due to their home-court advantage and slightly better overall efficiency metrics on offense.

Moreover, considering both teams’ propensity for high-scoring affairs—the Nuggets’ last game went over with a combined score exceeding expectations—it seems likely that this contest will follow suit as well given both squads’ offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities.

In summary: expect a high-scoring encounter where I foresee Denver securing victory while comfortably covering that -7 point spread—and anticipate another OVER result as both offenses look set to shine under pressure tonight!