Memphis Grizzlies @ Washington Wizards - December 8, 2024

As we gear up for the matchup between the Memphis Grizzlies and Washington Wizards at Capital One Arena, all signs point toward a decisive victory for the Grizzlies. The oddsmakers have set the line with Memphis as -9.5-point favorites, reflecting their strong performance this season compared to Washington’s struggles.

To put things into perspective, Memphis boasts an impressive record of 16-8 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). They are riding a wave of momentum, having won eight out of their last nine games and covering in 13 of their last 16 outings. Their recent win over Boston showcased their ability to score effectively, dropping 127 points while shooting nearly 49% from the field. This offensive potency is underscored by their average of approximately 121 points per game on a solid shooting percentage of around 48.8%.

Conversely, Washington has had a dismal season thus far with a record of just 3-18 SU and only six covers in 21 games (6-14-1 ATS). Their offensive stats paint a bleak picture: averaging only about 106.7 points per game with a low shooting percentage of roughly 43.9%. Additionally, they struggle significantly from beyond the arc at just under 31%. With such lackluster offensive output combined with defensive lapses—allowing opponents to grab over 42 rebounds per game—the Wizards face an uphill battle against a high-scoring team like Memphis.

Defensively, both teams show weaknesses; however, Memphis has been slightly more effective on that end. They allow around 47 rebounds per game but manage to generate more steals than Washington does—averaging about 8.7 steals compared to Washington’s modest figure of around seven. The turnover battle could be pivotal here; while both teams struggle with turnovers (Memphis loses approximately 17 per game), Washington’s tendency to cough up the ball even more frequently could lead to easy transition opportunities for the Grizzlies.

Given these dynamics, I predict that Memphis will not only win but also cover that hefty spread comfortably. The key will be how efficiently they can exploit Washington’s defensive vulnerabilities while maintaining control over their own possessions.

As for the total score prediction? While both teams have shown they can put points on the board when needed—especially Memphis—I believe this matchup might lean towards being lower than expected due to Washington’s inability to keep pace offensively and potential late-game fouling scenarios where free throws could skew totals upward but ultimately fall short given how poorly they shoot from distance.

In summary: expect a commanding performance from Memphis leading them to victory by double digits while covering that -9.5 spread—and anticipate an outcome that stays under the opening total of 243.5 as well.